2025-2026 ENSO

[PhiEaglesfan712]

For PHL, last 6-inch snowstorm was Jan 28-29, 2022. Last 8-inch snowstorm was Jan 22-23, 2016. The 2016 one was probably the last real KU for our area.

[anthonymm]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

And many on you tube and elsewhere are calling for a cold E US winter? Does that jibe with the warmest N Pacific on record?

Yes it does.

[Daniel Boone]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I prefer to study females, but you do you.

Lol. I didn't notice that. Should or proof read. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

Yes it does.

The top 5 analog years are all in the last 5 years. How have you done in the last 5 years?

The next two weeks should have a trough in the NE N. Pacific. If people are freaking out about warm SSTAs there, there really shouldn't be a strong, persistent trough developing but the atmosphere comes first and SSTs 2nd. In 2 weeks the warm water in the Gulf of Alaska should cool.. 

[Maestrobjwa]

28 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Lol. I didn't notice that. Should or proof read. 

Ha...sentence about proofreading wasn't proofread 

[snowman19]

20 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

+QBO causes the tropical tropopause to stabilize which makes convection focus further off the equator which shifts the pattern more poleward, -QBO would have more active MJO(in general) but more focused on the equator

Yes, that was a big part of HM’s disco on this topic (-QBO/-ENSO resulting in a flat Aleutian ridge and +QBO/-ENSO resulting in a poleward Aleutian high). He actually went into a very detailed disco with a bunch of images in his blog. Shame I can’t find it anymore to share on here

[snowman19]

22 hours ago, bluewave said:

I have been discussing this for a while now. The rapid expansion of the mid-latitude ridging has been altering the way that the higher latitude teleconnections have been occurring relative to the past. We have also been seeing a much faster Pacific Jet with the record mid-latitude SSTs under these expanding ridges.

The current SSTs in the WPAC match several other years that went on to see +WPO winters

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

And many on you tube and elsewhere are calling for a cold E US winter? Does that jibe with the warmest N Pacific on record?

Both hotter extremes and colder extremes and drier weather-- I LIKE!!

Are you switching around to my view that we are now headed directly into an -AMO even if it doesn't show it on indices?

Two years in a row with drier summers and falls and lackluster or nonexistent tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic.  I think we might be headed to another dry and coldish winter, just like last winter too.

[kazimirkai]

23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the PNA will be volatile and average near neutral...we should be a big +month in January that will coincide with +NAO.

How do you forecast PNA and NAO so far ahead? Are you just running on analogs?

[anthonymm]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The top 5 analog years are all in the last 5 years. How have you done in the last 5 years?

The next two weeks should have a trough in the NE N. Pacific. If people are freaking out about warm SSTAs there, there really shouldn't be a strong, persistent trough developing but the atmosphere comes first and SSTs 2nd. In 2 weeks the warm water in the Gulf of Alaska should cool.. 

I'm not saying its gonna be a cold winter (I dont think it will). He was just asking whether or not a warm north pacific is consistent with a cold east coast winter (it obviously is).

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, anthonymm said:

I'm not saying it’s gonna be a cold winter (I dont think it will). He was just asking whether or not a warm north pacific is consistent with a cold east coast winter (it obviously is).

I thought it was a warm NE Pac that had some correlation to a cold E US winter rather than a warm N Pac overall, which is what I believe is the current case.

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I thought it was a warm NE Pac that had some correlation to a cold E US winter rather than a warm N Pac overall, which is what I believe is the current case.

Correct

[bluewave]

45 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I thought it was a warm NE Pac that had some correlation to a cold E US winter rather than a warm N Pac overall, which is what I believe is the current case.

It didn’t work out for the 2019-2020 winter since the rest of the Pacific was so warm with the record IOD reversal which supercharged the SPV during the fall when it was so positive.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, anthonymm said:

I'm not saying its gonna be a cold winter (I dont think it will). He was just asking whether or not a warm north pacific is consistent with a cold east coast winter (it obviously is).

it could be a cold and dry winter like last winter was.

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

it could be a cold and dry winter like last winter was.

That's a pretty rare winter pattern for our area (speaking the tristate area). Warm and wet usually wins.