2025-2026 ENSO

[michsnowfreak]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

After these past seven seasons, I'd sacrafice my right testicle for that season....but normallu, I would describe it is very ordinary and yawnstipating.

Yeah for you guys 2014-15 was the winner.

It was a severe winter here for sure, bitterly cold and white, but outside of one huge snowstorm Feb 1st, it was a much, MUCH quieter winter than 2013-14.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

Yeah for you guys 2014-15 was the winner.

It was a severe winter here for sure, bitterly cold and white, but outside of one huge snowstorm Feb 1st, it was a much, MUCH quieter winter than 2013-14.

I would still take 1995-1996 over 2014-2015....but it's close. Having the holiday season cold/snowy is the deciding factor for me.

[DarkSharkWX]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would describe it as rethinking the assumption that a parochial approach to seasonal forecasting will be good enough.....ENSO, and SSTs in general along with every other variable, needs to be contexualized relative to the rest of the globe, which is precisely what RONI attempts to do. Its not the SSTs themselves that are the primary drivers of the hemispheric pattern, but rather the gradients. This is why we need to view ENSO RELATIVE  to the western Pacific, and within the context of tropical forecasting, SSTs RELATIVE to the subtropics. It doesn't matter how extreme ENSO is (warm/cold) if the western Pacific is every bit as anomalous. Likewise, bathwater SSTs in and of themselves are not conducive if the subtropics are even more anomalously warm because the atmosphere will lack the requsite instability and CAPE to foster adequate convection. 

This season is a wonderful lesson in how to engage in tropical forecasting on a seasonal level in a warming climate just as the El Nino of 2023-2024 was very instructive with respect to mid latitude seasonal forecasting.

there was actually a recent research paper that came out that attributed the lack of extreme teleconnections in the 2023/24 strong/super nino to an equally, if not more anomalous warming in the tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans, which is certainly interesting to think about how this will affect how seasonal forecasts are conducted in the future
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02584-8

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

We may be entering an era where we root for the +NAO because the SE ridge can routinely link up with a Greenland block. That obviously ruins any chance on the East coast for the major cities. But some SE ridge is good since it helps storms turn the corner. 

Yeah, the last cold and snowy month around our area in January 2022 actually had a strong +NAO pattern. We were able to get that great MJO 8 and have one cold snowy winter month. But the ridge axis over the Rockies was a little too far east so this favored coastal areas for the heavy snows instead of areas south and west of NYC.

 

[BlizzardWx]

36 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

there was actually a recent research paper that came out that attributed the lack of extreme teleconnections in the 2023/24 strong/super nino to an equally, if not more anomalous warming in the tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans, which is certainly interesting to think about how this will affect how seasonal forecasts are conducted in the future
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02584-8

Ultimately I think this is a good example of what @40/70 Benchmarkis always talking about and why we have to resist the urge to view things in isolation. I view the winter pattern like the mosaic of ripples on a pond if you were to throw a few stones in. Each stone could be a different index or measure of forcing. It's not the individual ripples that matter, it's the collection and how they interact that matters. Some years ENSO is the biggest stone, but maybe not in the case of 23-24.

Similarly, when I look at the global SSTA's this year, there is no doubt that the North Pacific is going to be our biggest "stone". But even then we have to be careful to not simplify it to a "hot north pacific". The relative location of the max anomalies and gradients matters. And you can't pick that kind of stuff up from a blanket index. That is why although in theory you could say well we have a big negative pdo, enso, and iod so that means such and such, but it's the details within these zones that may make or break winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

there was actually a recent research paper that came out that attributed the lack of extreme teleconnections in the 2023/24 strong/super nino to an equally, if not more anomalous warming in the tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans, which is certainly interesting to think about how this will affect how seasonal forecasts are conducted in the future
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02584-8

It's all interconnected somewhat and we don't yet fully grasp how, nor the full breadth of the ramifications of said connection.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said:

there was actually a recent research paper that came out that attributed the lack of extreme teleconnections in the 2023/24 strong/super nino to an equally, if not more anomalous warming in the tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans, which is certainly interesting to think about how this will affect how seasonal forecasts are conducted in the future
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02584-8

That’s why during the fall of 2023 I was pointing out the WPAC to IO would have more influence than we typically get with such strong El Niños. It lead to me doubting the Euro seasonal forecast of the typical Nino trough with colder conditions in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

The ridging in Canada was also stronger and more extensive than we typically see with El Niño events building down into the East which we usually see with La Ninas. So effectively a hybrid pattern with the warmest features of an El Niño and La Ninas merged together.

We got early hints this would be the case back in May 2023 when the historic ridge developed over Canada leading to the record wildfire season. So there are clearly multiple areas of record SST warmth contributing to the overall pattern.

In the old days we could just look at Nino 3.4 and have a reasonable assumption of what the pattern would look like. Now as I have been saying we have to deal with competing influences from these numerous areas of record SST warmth.

This has been one of the reasons these seasonal models have been having so much of a challenge with the recent winter forecasts. The stock El Niño and La Ninas composites from the colder climate era are not manifesting in the same ways anymore. We first got a sample of this when the El Niño forecasts in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 failed to couple due to the record SST warmth from the IO into the WPAC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s why during the fall of 2023 I was pointing out the WPAC to IO would have more influence than we typically get with such strong El Niños. It lead to me doubting the Euro seasonal forecast of the typical Nino trough with colder conditions in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

The ridging in Canada was also stronger and more extensive than we typically see with El Niño events building down into the East which we more typically see with La Ninas. So effectively a hybrid pattern with the warmest features of an El Niño and La Ninas merged together.

We got early hints this would be the case back in May 2023 when the historic ridge developed over Canada leading to the record wildfire season. So there are clearly multiple areas of record SST warmth contributing to the overall pattern.

In the old days we could just look at Nino 3.4 and have a reasonable assumption of what the pattern would look like. Now as I have been saying we have to deal with competing influences from these numerous areas of record SST warmth.

This has been one of the reasons these seasonal models have been having so much of a challenge with the recent winter forecasts. The stock El Niño and La Ninas composites from the colder climate era are not manifesting in the same ways anymore. We first got a sample of this when the El Niño forecasts in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 failed to couple due to the record SDt warmth from the IO into the WPAC.

You absolutely nailed that...full credit. While my outlook went up in flames, it was one of the more instructional experiences that I have had in seasonal forecasting. This is why I always say the ones that are missed are our most valuable resources. We saw something similar with the 1972-1973 El Nino, but obviously this was warmer given CC.

I think this year we may see something similar in that seasonals will overbake ENSO into the output.

[anthonymm]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The JMA seasonal just updated for the winter. It was the only model that got the 2013-2014 winter correct with its fall forecasts. This time it has a much different look.

It has a more +PNA pattern than we typically get with a La Niña. So it has a Baja ridge instead of the deep trough we had there in 2022-2023. My guess is that this is a continuation of the ridging and warm water we have been seeing near the West Coast this summer. 

In the East we have the familiar -AO Greenland block linking up with the Southeast ridge. So a milder winter in the East than last winter.

As always these extended forecasts much of the time are low skill. So I just include here for informational purposes.

 

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/wmc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/zpcmap.php

 

 

Famous forecast from September 2013 showing the record TNH winter

 

+PNA is king. I think it's probably the best predictor of weather the I95 gets a snowy pattern compared to all other teleconnections.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

+PNA is king. I think it's probably the best predictor of weather the I95 gets a snowy pattern compared to all other teleconnections.

I think it's one of the more helpful teleconnectors in terms of individual storms, but I would take the -EPO for starters during a given season....getting a vortex over AK is the kiss of death for any season.

[roardog]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You absolutely nailed that...full credit. While my outlook went up in flames, it was one of the more instructional experiences that I have had in seasonal forecasting. This is why I always say the ones that are missed are our most valuable resources. We saw something similar with the 1972-1973 El Nino, but obviously this was warmer given CC.

I think this year we may see something similar in that seasonals will overbake ENSO into the output.

In the end, the 500mb height anomalies in 72-73 were very similar to 23-24 when you adjust for the current climate.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

18 minutes ago, roardog said:

In the end, the 500mb height anomalies in 72-73 were very similar to 23-24 when you adjust for the current climate.

What about 57-58 and 09-10 (the two very snowy el ninos)? Were the 500mb height anomalies similar when adjusted for climate?

[kazimirkai]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's all interconnected somewhat and we don't yet fully grasp how, nor the full breadth of the ramifications of said connection.

We need a terrestrial theory of everything

[roardog]

53 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

What about 57-58 and 09-10 (the two very snowy el ninos)? Were the 500mb height anomalies similar when adjusted for climate?

I never really compared those winters so I don't know without looking into it.

[snowman19]

The bizarre MJO behavior continues

[snowman19]

The east coast, from the mid-atlantic up to the northeast is very quickly going into full on drought conditions again. Been dry as hell since August 1st. Shades of last fall
 

[snowman19]

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would still take 1995-1996 over 2014-2015....but it's close. Having the holiday season cold/snowy is the deciding factor for me.

Everytime you guys bring up 95-96 I just cringe. I mean its 30 years ago and I was 12...and there have been many amazing winters since...but 95-96, just gross lol (except for the Mar 20 storm).