2025-2026 ENSO

[michsnowfreak]

13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Even though that is the far NW tip of upper Michigan, it is still extremely rare to see snowflakes on September 4th. Its almost funny...thats literally a 4-month window between the end of one season and the start of the next lol. 

In winter though, unless you live in the Great Lakes you wont understand how common it is to see flakes flying constantly. Even in SE MI outside the snowbelt, Im like an owl looking outside for those first flakes in Oct or Nov, but by mid-winter its almost like youre immune to the harmless flurries or light snow showers falling all the time. The key to a great winter Great Lakes-wide is an excellent LES AND excellent synoptic pattern.

Heres a good example....

Last winter, 2024-25, Detroit & Boston, two cities with similar snowfall averages (but vastly different climos) saw similarly below avg snowfall. In Detroit at least, I can confirm the winter was colder & drier than anticipated. Fortunately the snowcover held up well.

Detroit saw 28.7" & Boston 28.1".

From Nov-Apr, a trace or more of snow fell on 80 days at Detroit...and 29 days at Boston. 

Mood flakes in the Great Lakes are always a nice touch, but a synoptic pattern is still important for those outside the belts. Now, in the true snow belts of upper MI, where few people actually live, being a snowfall observer would honestly be a full time job in winter. You can get measurable snow every day for months on end. 

[kazimirkai]

21 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's how La Niñas transition (using New York City's data) following cooler than normal and warmer than normal Septembers:

In general, warmer Septembers are often followed by milder and less snowy winters. Cooler Septembers slightly favor colder winters (especially January, possibly due to more persistent forcing) with greater snowfall potential.

If the average annual temperature has been increasing over time, wouldn't you expect warm Septembers and warm winters to correlate (or warm any warm month with warm winters for that matter) during a warming climate? The majority of the cold-september-cold-winter cases are from before 2000 whereas more of the warm-september-warm-winter cases are from after. Would this not just be evidence that years as a whole are getting warmer? 

[bluewave]

51 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Even though that is the far NW tip of upper Michigan, it is still extremely rare to see snowflakes on September 4th. Its almost funny...thats literally a 4-month window between the end of one season and the start of the next lol. 

In winter though, unless you live in the Great Lakes you wont understand how common it is to see flakes flying constantly. Even in SE MI outside the snowbelt, Im like an owl looking outside for those first flakes in Oct or Nov, but by mid-winter its almost like youre immune to the harmless flurries or light snow showers falling all the time. The key to a great winter Great Lakes-wide is an excellent LES AND excellent synoptic pattern.

It’s good to see some areas doing this well with these big Pacific Jet extensions in recent years. Looks like the strong -IOD forcing lead to the jet extension and wave breaking event. Record warmth in Western Canada with record high 500mb height anomalies. Then the record low 500mb heights over the Western Great Lakes leading to the very early snowfall. 

 

 

[kazimirkai]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

Does anyone know the last time the EC forecasted a cold and snowy winter here? Serious question

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

Powerful ridge over Alaska. If that actually plays out there is no way for us to be mild. 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, anthonymm said:

Powerful ridge over Alaska. If that actually plays out there is no way for us to be mild. 

Lol That’s an Aleutian ridge not an Alaskan ridge

[anthonymm]

24 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Does anyone know the last time the EC forecasted a cold and snowy winter here? Serious question

It never does. But then again, that almost never happens now, so it ends up being right most of the time.

[anthonymm]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Lol That’s an Aleutian ridge not an Alaskan ridge

So blowtorch 22-23 style winter incoming?

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

So blowtorch 22-23 style winter incoming?

 It’s very hard to predict with confidence how the upcoming winter will be this far out. But I will say that pretty close to normal temperatures (based on 1991-2020 averages) in your area (NE US) are quite possible this DJF.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, kazimirkai said:

If the average annual temperature has been increasing over time, wouldn't you expect warm Septembers and warm winters to correlate (or warm any warm month with warm winters for that matter) during a warming climate? The majority of the cold-september-cold-winter cases are from before 2000 whereas more of the warm-september-warm-winter cases are from after. Would this not just be evidence that years as a whole are getting warmer? 

Good question. I posted the actual data, because even when the data is detrended for the warming, one still finds similar outcomes.

[GaWx]

On 9/1/2025 at 7:39 AM, mitchnick said:

3 month temp average off the latest Cansips. 

Fwiw, Cansips has a Niño developing by next summer, but it's record with long term Enso forecasts ain't so hot.

 Indeed, Mitch! Check out this poor CANSIPS ENSO verification:

8/31/24 run for Aug ‘25 had Modoki Niño look


7/31/25 run for Aug ‘25 asks “what Modoki Nino?”

[donsutherland1]

Here's how the ECMWF seasonal forecasts changed:

August 2025:

September 2025:

For perspective, here's where things stood last September for Winter 2024-2025, along with the actual outcome:

 

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's how the ECMWF seasonal forecasts changed:

August 2025:

September 2025:

For perspective, here's where things stood last September for Winter 2024-2025, along with the actual outcome:

 

The UKMO has actually been doing very well. Curious to see what it shows when it updates

[snowman19]

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, anthonymm said:

So blowtorch 22-23 style winter incoming?

We are only in September.  Winter outlooks by the models and people for the past few years haven't been good. 

Grain of salt this far out

[PhiEaglesfan712]

FWIW, the last 2 -IODs that were as strong as this year torched in November-February. 

The only difference is that (outside of Baltimore and DC), we got the blizzard in mid-March 2017, otherwise 16-17 would have been a snow shutout like 22-23.

The big difference this time around is that we had a cool August (2016 and 2022 had record warm Augusts).

[anthonymm]

27 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

FWIW, the last 2 -IODs that were as strong as this year torched in November-February. 

The only difference is that (outside of Baltimore and DC), we got the blizzard in mid-March 2017, otherwise 16-17 would have been a snow shutout like 22-23.

The big difference this time around is that we had a cool August (2016 and 2022 had record warm Augusts).

Not true, nyc would have gotten 20" even without the march storm. Only slightly below avg.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 The last few GEFS and EPS runs have forecasted MJO in the relatively favorable phases of 2, 1, and 8 through Sept. 19 and this would probably extend through at least the rest of Sept per longer term model guidance and climo:

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's how the ECMWF seasonal forecasts changed:

August 2025:

September 2025:

For perspective, here's where things stood last September for Winter 2024-2025, along with the actual outcome:

 

Not that it matters at this point, but the monthly temp forecast isn't that bad for the NE. It's pretty rudimentary, but you get the jist of it that the 3 month averages of +1-2C is likely closer to +1 than +2.

Precip for the 3 months is within the average range for many on the east coast as well during DJF, while JFM is average for everyone. 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's how the ECMWF seasonal forecasts changed:

August 2025:

September 2025:

For perspective, here's where things stood last September for Winter 2024-2025, along with the actual outcome:

 

Pretty big fail last winter.

[GaWx]

 The new Euro has DJF Nino 3.4 much cooler than last month with it at ~-0.50 vs last month’s -0.08:

8/1/25 Euro prog for DJF: -0.08

9/1/25 Euro prog for DJF: ~-0.50

 

[GaWx]

56 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Pretty big fail last winter.

 Do you or does anyone else have a link that can be provided to past years’ Euro Sept 2m temperature forecasts going back however far they do for the respective upcoming DJFs for North America or the US?
 Edit: I found it kind of sort of. See post below.

@donsutherland1@mitchnick

[donsutherland1]

29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Pretty big fail last winter.

It was. Notice how similar the map looks to last September's outlook for the past winter. I suspect that the similarity reveals that the expected ENSO state plays a disproportionate role in the seasonal forecasts.

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Do you or does anyone else have a link that can be provided to past years’ Euro Sept 2m temperature forecasts going back however far they do for the respective upcoming DJFs for North America or the US?

@donsutherland1@mitchnick

I just found Sept 2M forecasts for Dec and Jan individually though not Sept for DJF:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_2mtm?area=NAME&base_time=202509010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202510020000

@donsutherland1@mitchnick

[mitchnick]

35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The new Euro has DJF Nino 3.4 much cooler than last month with it at ~-0.50 vs last month’s -0.08:

8/1/25 Euro prog for DJF: -0.08

9/1/25 Euro prog for DJF: ~-0.50

 

Snowman19 seeing this post.

[donsutherland1]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I just found Sept 2M forecasts for Dec and Jan individually though not Sept for DJF:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_2mtm?area=NAME&base_time=202509010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202510020000

@donsutherland1@mitchnick

Here you go: