2025-2026 ENSO

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

QBO is not unfavorable this year and La Niña is still going to be weak. This seems like splitting hairs to me...and believe me, I want a repeat of last winter like a hole in the head.

although I didn't like the results, I would run the 500mb pattern back in a heartbeat. that winter was a clinic on how to get the least amount of snow with favorable 500mb patterns

[snowman19]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

QBO is not unfavorable this year and La Niña is still going to be weak. This seems like splitting hairs to me...and believe me, I want a repeat of last winter like a hole in the head.

I’m not saying the QBO is unfavorable at all. As to solar, yes, I’d agree that solar is similar. Both sunspot and solar flux numbers are back up over 200. And it looks like we are about to have a big uptick in geomag activity too
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not saying the QBO is unfavorable at all. As to solar, yes, I’d agree that solar is similar. Both sunspot and solar flux numbers are back up over 200. And it looks like we are about to have a big uptick in geomag activity

Last year is not a perfect analog, but it is variable IMO...it's one of my primary analogs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

although I didn't like the results, I would run the 500mb pattern back in a heartbeat. that winter was a clinic on how to get the least amount of snow with favorable 500mb patterns

I would prefer to run it back with a more neutral WPO.

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not saying the QBO is unfavorable at all. As to solar, yes, I’d agree that solar is similar. Both sunspot and solar flux numbers are back up over 200. And it looks like we are about to have a big uptick in geomag activity

I'm not so sure I'd be looking at solar at this point. True, there's been a big jump in activity the last day or 2, but that's after a big drop. The overall trend is down looking at everything at the link below. Plus, it's too early. If we're rolling ahead hot and heavy come November, imho, then we take a 2nd look at possible curveballs to the forecast.

https://solen.info/solar/index.html

[snowman19]

[roardog]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

We had a warm, humid summer here, and while once again, extreme temps were not a thing (14 days of 90F+, which is only 1 day more than normal, and only 4 of these days were 93+) it was the warm humid nights that made their mark. 

Yet now, we are in a stretch of a what will be about 10 days straight of unseasonably cool nights, several of them flirting in record low territory, so to say that summers back is broken is an understatement. The trees are starting to get some color as well. 

Through yesterday, we are now at .4 above average for the month around here. Tomorrow will be well below average and the lows around here for sure will be below average the rest of the month. The highs might be too but Sunday might be close. I think we’re going to end the month slightly below average with the low temperatures leading the way which has become quite unusual in recent times.

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I agree. The Niña is tipping its hand much earlier this year than last, there’s a -IOD event now and the NW Pacific is even warmer. There’s also a very pronounced -PMM and we have a deep -AAM, whereas last year was very +AAM/Nino like. Last year by this time we had a parade of recurving tropical and extratropical storms training over the inferno SSTS off Japan cooling/upwelling them, not happening this time around. In fact the -PDO is even stronger now with SSTS of 11 degrees F above normal in that area….that’s staggering. And obvious big changes in the Atlantic with the big persistent cold pool south of Greenland and up Davis Straight

EDIT: We’ve also had a QBO flip from + to -
 
 

The subsurface accumulation of warmth is really off the charts. During the winter there was a trough east of Japan. But the SSTs weren’t able to cool much with so much heat below the surface.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

Through yesterday, we are now at .4 above average for the month around here. Tomorrow will be well below average and the lows around here for sure will be below average the rest of the month. The highs might be too but Sunday might be close. I think we’re going to end the month slightly below average with the low temperatures leading the way which has become quite unusual in recent times.

I also have a feeling the trees are really going to start taking off with these cool nights. Its not at all uncommon to see some stressed color by now, but I've been noticing many trees starting to get some color the last few days.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Highest daily SOI today since May.. +24. I think a Weaker La Nina state is more likely for the Winter. 2nd year La Nina's and -PDO's tend to have a more classic cold season -PNA pattern, but we haven't had as strong of a -PNA generally since the 23-24 Strong El Nino. 

It's very likely that August 2025 will be the 11th consecutive month with +SOI

Top 20 best matches since 1948 to 2nd year La Nina vs 2nd year El Nino for the cold season (Nov-March)

Dec-Feb

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The subsurface accumulation of warmth is really off the charts. During the winter there was a trough east of Japan. But the SSTs weren’t able to cool much with so much heat below the surface.

Nice post. I love subsurface data, as the thermocline probably has a better correlation to our pattern than surface SSTs, which are variable from the pattern (look at how much Erin cooled SSTs). Subsurface data is spotty, so any info on that is great info. That updated image to July 2025 is cool. I would think in a more classic -PDO it wouldn't be as warm from the top down, and you would have more consistency about 200m deep. I've always said I think it's more of a decadal La Nina state in effect. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 8/27/2025 at 1:33 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

(Long winded) Mic drop-

Another trough hitting the Great Lakes around 9/4.. it will be interesting to see where we go after that, it might start warming.. October is the month of the year where the PDO correlation really picks up, and is the highest correlated PDO month of the year, in terms of non-0-time based happening:

But in September the PDO correlation is still weak

[roardog]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I also have a feeling the trees are really going to start taking off with these cool nights. Its not at all uncommon to see some stressed color by now, but I've been noticing many trees starting to get some color the last few days.

Yeah. I’m seeing that too. I remember a lot of early color in 2017 after that cool August and early September. Then it of course turned hot in late September as you know. lol. 

[michsnowfreak]

11 minutes ago, roardog said:

Yeah. I’m seeing that too. I remember a lot of early color in 2017 after that cool August and early September. Then it of course turned hot in late September as you know. lol. 

I remember. Don't think we see that kind of heat later in September this year though.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Interesting that the pattern usually flips one year after a 2nd year La Nina minus 2nd year El Nino (Winter 26-27)