2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The question remains….is the ACE/recurving hurricanes causing it? Or is the larger background state of the Atlantic at the time causing it and it’s only a symptom?

1. It’s a weak to very weak correlation at best regarding AN ACE to 35”+ NYC snow. Furthermore, correlation doesn’t necessarily mean causation.

2. If either of the two possibilities were to be the case even in a weak manner, I’d go with your 2nd option.

3. I’ve seen no indication about an even very weak correlation of recurving hurricanes and 35”+ NYC snow.

4. If anything, there may be a very weak correlation to seasons with 2+ US H hits and not the other way around. That sort of seems like the opposite 

5. Regardless, how does one quantify the relationship of “recurving hurricanes” to 35”+ snowfall? That seems kind of vague/not very concrete.

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

5. Regardless, how does one quantify the relationship of “recurving hurricanes” to 35”+ snowfall? That seems kind of vague/not very concrete.

It's whatever Joe Bastardi says it is!

@snowman19

[anthonymm]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

While the sample size is pretty small, there has been an increase in NYC La Niña snowfall following Atlantic hurricane seasons with 160+ ACE since 1995. There was also an increase in December +PNAs. Unfortunately, the relationship didn’t work last winter due to the overpowering Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet.

Last season was the first with only 12.9” of snowfall in NYC with a strong December +PNA and a La Niña.

My guess is that the high ACE was part of a similar pattern which used to produce both December +PNAs and snowy outcomes during La Nina’s. So while we got the strong December +PNA last season, the snowfall didn’t follow due to the warm storm track through the Great Lakes. 

So several elements in the same pattern but we can’t say that the ACE is directly the cause. Just that these elements appear together from time to time. It could be they are related to another underlying variable that we haven’t identified yet. 

2005….ACE…..245….DEC PNA….+1.38….NYC snowfall….40.0”

1995….ACE……227….DEC PNA…..+0.92..NYC snowfall ….75.6”

2017….ACE……224….DEC PNA…..+0.89…NYC snowfall….40.9”

1998…ACE……181……DEC PNA…..-0.09….NYC snowfall…..12.7”

2020..ACE……180…..DEC PNA…..+1.58….NYC snowfall….38.6”

1999…ACE……176…..DEC PNA……+0.21….NYC snowfall…..16.3”

2010…ACE…..165……DEC PNA…….-1.78….NYC snowfall…..61.9”

2024…ACE….161……DEC PNA…….+1.70….NYC snowfall…..12.9”

 

Crazy rotten luck last winter for nyc. It's very rare nowadays to get below normal temps and snow.

[snowman19]

Trade winds/EWBs look to strengthen significantly in the coming couple of weeks which will enhance a more La Niña and -AAM regime as we go into met fall

[PhiEaglesfan712]

If we get a la nina, we better hope it doesn't torch, or the winter is pretty much toast. I know that one storm is all that's needed to skew the winter, but getting that one storm is tougher in a torch la nina (since the weather generally has a lot less variance during a la nina, I mean what happens in late November and December pretty much sets the tone for the rest of the winter). Just look at the last 3 la nina torch winters:

11-12: BWI snowfall 1.8 in; DCA snowfall 2.0 in

16-17: BWI snowfall 3.0 in; DCA snowfall 3.4 in

22-23: BWI snowfall 0.2 in; DCA snowfall 0.4 in

[snowman19]

If we get a la nina, we better hope it doesn't torch, or the winter is pretty much toast. I know that one storm is all that's needed to skew the winter, but getting that one storm is tougher in a torch la nina (since the weather generally has a lot less variance during a la nina, I mean what happens in late November and December pretty much sets the tone for the rest of the winter). Just look at the last 3 la nina torch winters:
11-12: BWI snowfall 1.8 in; DCA snowfall 2.0 in
16-17: BWI snowfall 3.0 in; DCA snowfall 3.4 in
22-23: BWI snowfall 0.2 in; DCA snowfall 0.4 in

As a sweeping generality, -ENSO/-PDO winters tip their hand in November and December….if those 2 months are warmer than normal with below average snow, that usually sets the tone for the remainder of the winter season….the opposite (colder than normal with above average snow) normally also holds true