2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Beginning to wonder if the term 'heat wave' is the right nomenclature for that western Pac thermal anomaly.   

Heat wave implies a beginning, and then an end.  There is no "wave" if whatever is occurring does not ascend and then descend, or vice versa.   This thing?  ascended gradually over the last 10 years and has been transfixed - if perhaps wobbling around .. Perhaps it the waved nature extends over multi-decade.   Then we'd have to get into the philosophy of whether time range disqualifies a wave phenomenon and ugh...

Anyway, it's not behaving like a wave.  In fact, it smacks like a 30 years from now ...the mean will be adjusted up because of it's presence, and the "anomaly" will disappear in the arithmetic means once the moving climate calcs are reapplied.  It's just the new order, in other words. 

Not saying that's the case ... but it's not acting like a "wave" nonetheless. 

As an after thought, it seems as GW's gone up, this thing's emerged almost in lock step with the last 20 years of the GW acceleration.  Gets easier to assume there's a connection there but just supposition for now I guess.

 

It waned a bit last cold season, but its ramped back up.

[jm1220]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, I like knew in mid-June this was going to be a low ACE season (and it's pretty funny this is happening on the 20th anniversary of the most active season ever). A 2013-type season with just TS/C1 storms is looking more and more likely with each passing day.

And low ACE Nina means death knell for a snowy NYC winter. Hope that’s wrong. 

[snowman19]

And low ACE Nina means death knell for a snowy NYC winter. Hope that’s wrong. 

No, that supposed relationship between -ENSO and Atlantic ACE is extremely sketchy at best. The only one who really swears by it is JB because of the high ACE ‘95 Atlantic season that lead to the 95-96 winter. I have yet to see anything convincing. JB also insists that -SOI periods correspond to blocking and cold/snow in the east during -ENSO’s even though he knows full well that the -SOI relationship only works when there is +ENSO’s

[snowman19]

I think March will be more favorable than last year...I also think the cool ENSO event will be more east-based...last year was a Modoki.
But that end of season PV disruption should be earlier than it was last year, more along the lines of 2023 and 2018.

If the La Niña/cold-neutral is as weak as you speculate it will be, does it actually matter if the cold event is Modoki or east-based?

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the La Niña/cold-neutral is as weak as you speculate it will be, does it actually matter if the cold event is Modoki or east-based?

Not really, but I would still rather it not be Modoki all else equal. Plus you can never trust a cool ENSO HC alignment to not overperform in this regime.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not saying we will see the snowfall March 2018 did, but I think it will be better than last year. March 2023 with a bit tamer RNA would nail most of SNE.

What your thoughts on a busier December? I mentioned earlier, but last year December and February kind of swapped a typical Nina pattern. It seems like Im saying this every year, but we are due for a good December and if any traditional pattern screams "good December" for here, its when the atmosphere is in a nina-like state.

And before someone starts in with the "maybe its because winter is starting later" thing...we have had NO problem getting big November cold shots or abnormally snowy Novembers. Weve had a few perfectly timed White Christmases, but Im talking we need a good December monthlong blitz.

The last above avg snowfall Dec was 2020 but that was JUST barely...have to go back to 2017 for the last real good December. In the time since, literally every other month October through May has had standout snowfall relative to avg at some point, except December. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

What your thoughts on a busier December? I mentioned earlier, but last year December and February kind of swapped a typical Nina pattern. It seems like Im saying this every year, but we are due for a good December and if any traditional pattern screams "good December" for here, its when the atmosphere is in a nina-like state.

And before someone starts in with the "maybe its because winter is starting later" thing...we have had NO problem getting big November cold shots or abnormally snowy Novembers. Weve had a few perfectly timed White Christmases, but Im talking we need a good December monthlong blitz.

The last above avg snowfall Dec was 2020 but that was JUST barely...have to go back to 2017 for the last real good December. In the time since, literally every other month October through May has had standout snowfall relative to avg at some point, except December. 

The wave lengths are in flux at that time of year..I think that may be why.

Easterly QBO and cool ENSO combos have had some active Decembers.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think November isn't as impacted by the expanding Hadley Cell because of the shorter wavelengths......once those lengthen, December has been more prone to the milder patterns until we are deep enough into the cold season to offset enough to allow for coastal snow.

[michsnowfreak]

Thought this was interesting, especially since a few like bluewave are always interested in US data, not just local data.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thought this was interesting, especially since a few like bluewave are always interested in US data, not just local data.

I sense a quoted tweet from Mr. Miagi's nephew about how its been the 3rd hottest Summer in Japan in over 150 years of data, and the fish population is suffering.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thought this was interesting, especially since a few like bluewave are always interested in US data, not just local data.

See @bluewave and @donsutherland1 and others, he is a troll. This is the dumbest, most misleading graph produced by Tony Heller. It very well may be that there were a higher percentage of days in the Dust Bowl over 90F, but this graphic is a HOAX that is RIGGED to produce that result. It's always going to show that pattern.

The distribution of stations has changed, favoring more high elevation and cooler microclimates that weren't represented much in the early decades. Moreover, time of observation changes result in an increase in 90F days, as there would often be additional days counted as a result of taking observations at 5pm or 6pm (e.g., day has high of 95F, at 5 pm, the thermometer is reset with the temperature reading 92F. The next afternoon reaches 84F, but the high is the observation temp of 92F). This is NOT an official NOAA/NCEI graphic, and NOT the right way to present climate data. Which is IRONIC since it originates from a loser (Tony Heller) who is always complaining about "corrupt" scientists. A legitimate analysis would at least make an effort at gridding the data to eliminate effects of a changing distribution of constituent stations and would apply an adjustment for non-climatic biases in the dataset. Of course, Tony never does this.

[csnavywx]

On 7/23/2025 at 7:18 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2047...I actually expected a sooner date....I think Bluewave's model had yesterday.

Yep, it's later than you might think and that's due to high variance. It's even later over the high/central Plains. However, I don't think anybody should take solace in that:

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2025/07/06/heat-wave-hotspots/

The fact that we're heading back into an environment where years like the '30s Dust Bowl heat can happen again with much shorter return periods should be a cause for concern. The '30s wasn't without anthropogenic influence, but arguing that the current trajectory isn't that big of a deal because of high past variance is also arguing for high climate sensitivity (at least regionally).

We're focusing on the floods this year, but we could just as easily be in a Nina-enhanced drought next year. The higher VPD makes volatility increase over time.

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

See @bluewave and @donsutherland1 and others, he is a troll. This is the dumbest, most misleading graph produced by Tony Heller. It very well may be that there were a higher percentage of days in the Dust Bowl over 90F, but this graphic is a HOAX that is RIGGED to produce that result. It's always going to show that pattern.

The distribution of stations has changed, favoring more high elevation and cooler microclimates that weren't represented much in the early decades. Moreover, time of observation changes result in an increase in 90F days, as there would often be additional days counted as a result of taking observations at 5pm or 6pm (e.g., day has high of 95F, at 5 pm, the thermometer is reset with the temperature reading 92F. The next afternoon reaches 84F, but the high is the observation temp of 92F). This is NOT an official NOAA/NCEI graphic, and NOT the right way to present climate data. Which is IRONIC since it originates from a loser (Tony Heller) who is always complaining about "corrupt" scientists. A legitimate analysis would at least make an effort at gridding the data to eliminate effects of a changing distribution of constituent stations and would apply an adjustment for non-climatic biases in the dataset. Of course, Tony never does this.

Who is a troll? Heller?

[so_whats_happening]

Amazing no one likes to comment on thoughts and actually have a conversation in this thread it is either arguments or silence. i still see why raindance has essentially stopped posting.

[GaWx]

OHC plunge continues:

 

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

See @bluewave and @donsutherland1 and others, he is a troll. This is the dumbest, most misleading graph produced by Tony Heller. It very well may be that there were a higher percentage of days in the Dust Bowl over 90F, but this graphic is a HOAX that is RIGGED to produce that result. It's always going to show that pattern.

The distribution of stations has changed, favoring more high elevation and cooler microclimates that weren't represented much in the early decades. Moreover, time of observation changes result in an increase in 90F days, as there would often be additional days counted as a result of taking observations at 5pm or 6pm (e.g., day has high of 95F, at 5 pm, the thermometer is reset with the temperature reading 92F. The next afternoon reaches 84F, but the high is the observation temp of 92F). This is NOT an official NOAA/NCEI graphic, and NOT the right way to present climate data. Which is IRONIC since it originates from a loser (Tony Heller) who is always complaining about "corrupt" scientists. A legitimate analysis would at least make an effort at gridding the data to eliminate effects of a changing distribution of constituent stations and would apply an adjustment for non-climatic biases in the dataset. Of course, Tony never does this.

I don’t believe he is aware of the origins and flaws of the chart. Moreover, he isn’t a troll. 

In the meantime, a photo from Stonington, ME where it got to 84. Portland hit a record-tying 91, but the heat was tempered here thanks to some showers and considerable cloud cover. The clouds broke during the late afternoon.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

54 minutes ago, GaWx said:

OHC plunge continues:

Look at how much this cold pool is blowing up on TAO/Triton

CPC usually lags a few days to weeks. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

lmao another year where raindances thoughts from the spring about the fall is the most liked post in this thread, and it's turning out to be opposite. Not saying it's wrong or anything, I just think it's funny. Last year the most liked post was the possibility of a +PDO transition, and October ended up having the most negative reading on record. Now the most liked post is about a possible El Nino lol. raindance is usually pretty sharp with his analysis though. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

donsutherland1 wow amazing view 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I don’t believe he is aware of the origins and flaws of the chart. Moreover, he isn’t a troll. 

In the meantime, a photo from Stonington, ME where it got to 84. Portland hit a record-tying 91, but the heat was tempered here thanks to some showers and considerable cloud cover. The clouds broke during the late afternoon.

Thanks Don! I do not even know who Tony Heller is. I simply posted 1 graph that i saw and thought was interesting. Im more interested in local climate data from individual sites, but there has been so much discussion of conus wide averages lately that when i saw this pop up i thought it fitting. I see some posters post dozens and dozens of posts/graphs/tweets etc. 

I have enjoyed posting with you and others on these weather boards for over 20 years now. I discuss all kinds of weather, post photos, and discuss lots of past/present climate data from all seasons. 

Tcc? Textbook definition of troll. For him to call me a troll is as ironic as you can get. Popped up a few years ago. Has no interest in weather or any climate data besides present day warm records. He spams every subforum with unwanted posts (then replies to himself with more) that annoy warm and cold lovers alike. I dont even need to go into the many examples i could use. His posting reputation speaks for itself. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thought this was interesting, especially since a few like bluewave are always interested in US data, not just local data.

Is that for real? I know that from what I've experienced, there is not much difference from the Summers now and when I was a kid, actually it seemed a little hotter when I was a kid with more black-sky thunderstorms. I know there was a wave of "warmer Summer min's" in the early 2000s, but it doesn't seem to be an over-inflated trend, the temperature progression of Summers. On the west coast it is a different story, it's much warmer and drier. It may be more of a pattern: the drought in the SW, US started in 1995. Phoenix had broken records every Summer 2022-2024 I think until this Summer. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 7/23/2025 at 10:00 AM, forkyfork said:

i don't think the amo is a real thing

It does seem like Atlantic SSTAs are not that different from the overall global warming trend. The cold in the 1970s and 1980s was notable and anomalous, but we might not get anything like that in the future, it may also just be a longer trend than we realize, thinking that there won't be cold Atlantic SSTs for the next 20 years or so. 

I was actually swimming in the south Carribean this Summer, the water was colder than I expected. There is definitely room for more warming

[michsnowfreak]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Is that for real? I know that from what I've experienced, there is not much difference from the Summers now and when I was a kid, actually it seemed a little hotter when I was a kid with more black-sky thunderstorms. I know there was a wave of "warmer Summer min's" in the early 2000s, but it doesn't seem to be an over-inflated trend, the temperature progression of Summers. On the west coast it is a different story, it's much warmer and drier. It may be more of a pattern: the drought in the SW, US started in 1995. Phoenix had broken records every Summer 2022-2024 I think until this Summer. 

I did not create the graph, only reposted it. Certainly seems legit though, with the notorious dustbowl years reigning supreme. Humidity and mins are whats been increasing here in summer, not days in the 90s. I can vouch that in Detroit, the decade with the most 90s was the 1930s.

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Beginning to wonder if the term 'heat wave' is the right nomenclature for that western Pac thermal anomaly.   

Heat wave implies a beginning, and then an end.  There is no "wave" if whatever is occurring does not ascend and then descend, or vice versa.   This thing?  ascended gradually over the last 10 years and has been transfixed - if perhaps wobbling around .. Perhaps it the waved nature extends over multi-decade.   Then we'd have to get into the philosophy of whether time range disqualifies a wave phenomenon and ugh...

Anyway, it's not behaving like a wave.  In fact, it smacks like a 30 years from now ...the mean will be adjusted up because of it's presence, and the "anomaly" will disappear in the arithmetic means once the moving climate calcs are reapplied.  It's just the new order, in other words. 

Not saying that's the case ... but it's not acting like a "wave" nonetheless. 

As an after thought, it seems as GW's gone up, this thing's emerged almost in lock step with the last 20 years of the GW acceleration.  Gets easier to assume there's a connection there but just supposition for now I guess.

 

Yeah, we were discussing this prospect a few weeks ago when this new paper was released. The authors have been interviewed about their findings since then. The shift to persistent 500mb ridging and SST warming across the mid-latitude Pacific may be an inherent response to a warming world which the research indicated occurred in previous warming eras for the earth. If we continue to see this block of warming and 500mb ridging continuing into the 2030s, then the new model simulation that was run could be onto something. Time will tell.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18072025/southwestern-drought-likely-to-continue-through-2100/

But in this case, the phenomenon can last far longer than the usual 30-year cycle of the PDO.

But if, as we hypothesize, this is a forced change in the sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific, this will be sustained into the future, and we need to start looking at this as a shift, instead of just the result of bad luck.”

Todd was able analyze drought conditions during the mid-Holocene period 6,000 years ago, a period in Earth’s history when the Northern Pacific warmed and the Southwestern U.S. experienced hundreds of years of drought. 

That led to a warming of the North Pacific that was similar to the PDO that drives drought in the Southwest, but in this case, the drying lasted for centuries. “As soon as we saw that, you know, we started thinking about what’s happening today,” Todd said.

Using an ensemble of historical and future climate models forecasting climate and precipitation patterns until 2100, they found the PDO-like negative phase continues through this century. But unlike the mid-Holocene period’s warming, which was brought on by vegetation change, today’s is driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Certain models revealed that the change in the ocean pattern was less about vegetation absorbing solar radiation, Todd said, and more about warming in general. 

In many ways, Richter said, what people are seeing on the ground is outpacing science.

 

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Is that for real? I know that from what I've experienced, there is not much difference from the Summers now and when I was a kid, actually it seemed a little hotter when I was a kid with more black-sky thunderstorms. I know there was a wave of "warmer Summer min's" in the early 2000s, but it doesn't seem to be an over-inflated trend, the temperature progression of Summers. On the west coast it is a different story, it's much warmer and drier. It may be more of a pattern: the drought in the SW, US started in 1995. Phoenix had broken records every Summer 2022-2024 I think until this Summer. 

No, it’s not a legitimate trend. It doesn’t account for changing distribution of stations as I stated above. There are many more high elevation sites today that seldom or never reach 90F, so, of course the percentage of days at all sites will go down. That’s not even talking about the non-climatic biases that would have favored the older era. Maybe there were more, but that’s not the way to do that analysis.

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we were discussing this prospect a few weeks ago when this new paper was released. The authors have been interviewed about their findings since then. The shift to persistent 500mb ridging and SST warming across the mid-latitude Pacific may be an inherent response to a warming world which the research indicated occurred in previous warming eras for the earth. If we continue to see this block of warming and 500mb ridging continuing into the 2030s, then the new model simulation that was run could be onto something. Time will tell.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18072025/southwestern-drought-likely-to-continue-through-2100/

But in this case, the phenomenon can last far longer than the usual 30-year cycle of the PDO.

But if, as we hypothesize, this is a forced change in the sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific, this will be sustained into the future, and we need to start looking at this as a shift, instead of just the result of bad luck.”

Todd was able analyze drought conditions during the mid-Holocene period 6,000 years ago, a period in Earth’s history when the Northern Pacific warmed and the Southwestern U.S. experienced hundreds of years of drought. 

That led to a warming of the North Pacific that was similar to the PDO that drives drought in the Southwest, but in this case, the drying lasted for centuries. “As soon as we saw that, you know, we started thinking about what’s happening today,” Todd said.

Using an ensemble of historical and future climate models forecasting climate and precipitation patterns until 2100, they found the PDO-like negative phase continues through this century. But unlike the mid-Holocene period’s warming, which was brought on by vegetation change, today’s is driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Certain models revealed that the change in the ocean pattern was less about vegetation absorbing solar radiation, Todd said, and more about warming in general. 

In many ways, Richter said, what people are seeing on the ground is outpacing science.

 

 

 

Bigger question is what kind of geoengineering can we do to cool the oceans back down, I envision a device that would overturn the oceanic circulation and constantly bring up cooler ocean waters from the depths.

Yelling about reducing fossil fuels isn't going to do anything-- it's already too late for that-- humanity must actively start large scale geoengineering projects to reverse what's going on.

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I did not create the graph, only reposted it. Certainly seems legit though, with the notorious dustbowl years reigning supreme. Humidity and mins are whats been increasing here in summer, not days in the 90s. I can vouch that in Detroit, the decade with the most 90s was the 1930s.

For us it was the 1990s.

[snowman19]

Look at how much this cold pool is blowing up on TAO/Triton

CPC usually lags a few days to weeks. 

This is why I have been saying my thoughts about a cold-neutral may turn out to be wrong and we actually do see an official La Niña. Also, if you look at that subsurface signature, it’s definitely not arguing for an east-based event. Not saying it can’t change by the end of fall but that does not look like an east-based subsurface right now, (Nino 1+2 has been skewed warm for months) which may not really matter all that much if this -ENSO event stays weak…..

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Is that for real? I know that from what I've experienced, there is not much difference from the Summers now and when I was a kid, actually it seemed a little hotter when I was a kid with more black-sky thunderstorms. I know there was a wave of "warmer Summer min's" in the early 2000s, but it doesn't seem to be an over-inflated trend, the temperature progression of Summers. On the west coast it is a different story, it's much warmer and drier. It may be more of a pattern: the drought in the SW, US started in 1995. Phoenix had broken records every Summer 2022-2024 I think until this Summer. 

Yes, the west has gotten hotter and drier while the east has gotten wetter and warmer (warmer refers to minimums while hotter refers to maximums).

But in this context 1995 is when we switched to a +AMO

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Yep, it's later than you might think and that's due to high variance. It's even later over the high/central Plains. However, I don't think anybody should take solace in that:

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2025/07/06/heat-wave-hotspots/

The fact that we're heading back into an environment where years like the '30s Dust Bowl heat can happen again with much shorter return periods should be a cause for concern. The '30s wasn't without anthropogenic influence, but arguing that the current trajectory isn't that big of a deal because of high past variance is also arguing for high climate sensitivity (at least regionally).

We're focusing on the floods this year, but we could just as easily be in a Nina-enhanced drought next year. The higher VPD makes volatility increase over time.

 

But that chart also assumes no large scale geoengineering projects will happen, which I don't think is true.  Beginning in 2030 or maybe even before, we'll very likely see such projects to cool down the climate, humanity won't stand still and just let the climate warm like that.