2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The biggest takeaway here is that we didn't even have that record warm in west coast like we did in 2013-14 and 2014-15.

Yea, these days we can only muster isolated pickets of cold around the hemisphere.

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Several of those threaded records have large jumps in elevation, and many go from city center to suburban even rural. With even the stations outside of the bigger cities having significant biases. Regardless, again, you feel the need to interject with "context" unrelated to my original post.

Here is the full Ohio dataset for January. There is a small cooling trend from 1895-1969 of about 0.5F/century.

Since 1970, it's warming at a rate of 10.1F/century, and even higher than that in the northern parts of the state.

Grafted together, yes, it looks like there's not much trend. But what do you think is more relevant to determining trend over the coming decades - the most recent 5 1/2 decades, or data from the 1800s?

First of all, either you edited it or I misread it, as I thought your original post said 10F per DECADE. So if i misread, my bad. But interjecting context not in your original post? You arent the only one allowed to post/discuss data.

You ask what is more relevant, data from the 1800s or from the last 5.5 decades? Thats a good question, and one you frequently bounce back and forth on. I would think that the NWS using 30-year normals is an excellent way to keep up with any current trends in weather data. However, I have heard you bring up (usually when someone discusses a current pattern of colder than avg temps) how the 30-yr normals are warmer so its seems an unfair representation. But for other things, I have seen you use the entire period-of-record (if it fits in better with whatever your driving at at that moment).

My opinion? All data is relevant but the starting point should be clearly stated. As time goes on, the stationary starting point of 1970 really looks more and more of a joke, and everyone knows EXACTLY why its picked. It was convenient when it was 30, but now its 55 years and counting. 30 year normals are too short but 100 years are too long?. 

I have been studying weather records for decades, and there is always that group of sensationalists who try to make certain things look more extreme than they are. And among that group, starting in 1970 is VERY important, but equally important is to completely ignore/sweep under the rug the 1930s-1950s summers/winters. It was a solid 30-year stretch of weather that was a complete change from the decades immediately before and after, chock full of pitiful winters and heatwave after heatwave in summer, and it puts a tremendous wrench in extreme warming charts. Solution? Just ignore it, and start at the coldest time on record as baseline. 

1970s winters were the absolute benchmark for cold in this region. Temperature wise, they were far from "average". At most stations, 1970s winters were some 5-7F colder than the 1950s (2 decades earlier) or 1990s (2 decades later). 

Sticking to northern Ohio per your post, over the last century, the last complete decade of January, the 2010s, was colder than the 2000s, 1990s, 1950s, 1940s, 1930s. At Cleveland the 2010s Januaries were colder than the 2000s, 1990s, 1950s, 1930s. The 2020s have not finished. But 10-20F/century? L-O-L.

Toledo
1930s- 29.5F
1940s- 24.8F
1950s- 26.7F
1960s- 23.4F
1970s- 20.7F
1980s- 22.9F
1990s- 26.7F
2000s- 26.1F
2010s- 24.8F
2020s- 29.2F

Cleveland
1930s- 32.1F
1940s- 27.1F
1950s- 29.0F
1960s- 25.4F
1970s- 23.6F
1980s- 25.2F
1990s- 28.8F
2000s- 27.8F
2010s- 27.5F
2020s- 30.3F
 

[michsnowfreak]

On 7/7/2025 at 1:22 PM, FPizz said:

100% agree.  As bad as some of the past several winters were here for certain years, that one still takes the cake as the #1 worst.  4" here total

It was definitely a warm winter, but I actually got over 40" in 2001-02. And 1997-98 sucked, but still managed over 27". I would say my worse is a tie between 2011-12 & 2023-24. My all-time personal low for snowfall is 2023-24 (21.4") with 2011-12 coming in 2nd (25.5") but in Jan 2024 we had a few weeks of bitter cold and good snows, so at least there was a spell of deep winter. The rest of that winter was remarkably dull. In 2011-12 it was more spread out with spurts throughout Dec-Feb, but no deep winter or lasting winter.

I continue to be optimistic for 2025-26. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The biggest takeaway here is that we didn't even have that record warm in west coast like we did in 2013-14 and 2014-15.

1978-1979 was the coldest winter on record for the CONUS going back to 1895. The average DJF temperature was 26.62°. The 2013-2014 winter was the 33rd coldest at 31.25°. This past winter was the #106 coldest at 34.31°.

So in just under than 50 years our coldest winters have warmed by 7.69°F. This winter had one of the smallest cold pools on record for the Northern Hemisphere.

 

 

[snowman19]

Arctic sea ice is already at record low levels and we have until mid-late September before the ice melt normally stops per climo…..

[bluewave]

Great Lakes snowbelts can do very well again like last winter with the record lake temperatures continuing. 

Record-breaking lake effect snow arrives as winter starts

 BY NICOLE COLLINS 

PUBLISHED DECEMBER 11, 2024

 

Not only were these totals impressive, but some were record breaking! Erie, Pennsylvania broke its snowiest day record with 22.6 inches falling on November 29 since records began in 1893. Gaylord, Michigan had 24.8 inches on November 29, making it the snowiest day on record since the site began recording in 1998 and Perrysburg, New York saw 30.6 inches on November 30, making it the snowiest day on record since the site began recording in 2003.

This impressive lake effect snow event may be attributed to the warming water temperatures of the Great Lakes. By the end of November, both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario had year to date record high water surface temperatures. This is partly due to both an above-average 2024 fall season temperatures as well as a warm 2023-2024 winter season. This continues the average warming trend in the lake temperatures over the past 30 years. Warmer lakes increase the temperature difference between the water and air, encouraging more lake effect snow when conditions are right.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/record-breaking-lake-effect-snow-arrives-winter-starts

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Arctic sea ice is already at record low levels and we have until mid-late September before the ice melt normally stops per climo…..
 

I don't have a ton of knowledge of arctic sea ice, but I always thought a predominately +AO summer like we have had lead to less sea ice melt?

[snowman19]

I don't have a ton of knowledge of arctic sea ice, but I always thought a predominately +AO summer like we have had lead to less sea ice melt?

Yea. It makes logical sense to assume that +AO would stop or at least slow the arctic sea ice melt but obviously it hasn’t

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Yea. It makes logical sense to assume that +AO would stop or at least slow the arctic sea ice melt but obviously it hasn’t

Seems like a good segue into a prolonged post by Bluewave about the impact of "this new warmer climate" on the arctic.

[snowman19]

Seems like a good segue into a prolonged post by Bluewave about the impact of "this new warmer climate" on the arctic.

I mean evidently something other than the NAM/AO is driving it. What exactly it is I don’t know. Change in ocean currents, circulations (marine heatwaves)? Solar/geomag related? I’m sure someone with more knowledge than me can probably give better insight

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 7/7/2025 at 1:33 PM, bluewave said:

22-23 was a little lower for snowfall around NYC than 01-02. But 01-02 remains a little warmer. If the 01-02 snowfall and temperature departures occurred again in this much warmer climate, then NYC would probably finish up with only around 1” or less of snow and a winter average temperature close to 43.0°

I'd have to agree, we haven't seen anything close to the +EPO in 01-02 in recent years, and how it often linked up with strong +NAO. If we had a Winter +EPO that extreme again, it might break the 70s mid-Winter in the Mid-Atlantic. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

18 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The biggest takeaway here is that we didn't even have that record warm in west coast like we did in 2013-14 and 2014-15.

13-14 wasn't that warm in the West. There were some +3F's in California but it was a CONUS cold year.

I do think if there is El Nino in future Winters, the West Coast will have an anomalous ridge. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

1978-1979 was the coldest winter on record for the CONUS going back to 1895. The average DJF temperature was 26.62°. The 2013-2014 winter was the 33rd coldest at 31.25°. This past winter was the #106 coldest at 34.31°.

So in just under than 50 years our coldest winters have warmed by 7.69°F. This winter had one of the smallest cold pools on record for the Northern Hemisphere.

Talk about a manipulation of data! So in 83 years the coldest Winter dropped, but in 50 years rose to incredible values. I don't think you can use the coldest Winter on record happening 70% through the dataset as proof.. You are comparing this past Winter with the coldest on record when it was +NAO/+WPO. 

[snowman19]

I'd have to agree, we haven't seen anything close to the +EPO in 01-02 in recent years, and how it often linked up with strong +NAO. If we had a Winter +EPO that extreme again, it might break the 70s mid-Winter in the Mid-Atlantic. 

The closest we’ve come to an 01-02 disaster winter since then was 11-12. That was driven by the massive Bering Sea vortex that developed right after Thanksgiving during the closing days of November and became a semi-permanent feature right into spring. It opened the Pacific floodgates and it was game over

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The closest we’ve come to an 01-02 disaster winter since then was 11-12. That was driven by the massive Bering Sea vortex that developed right after Thanksgiving during the closing days of November and became a semi-permanent feature right into spring. It opened the Pacific floodgates and it was game over

March 2012 had a really strong +EPO, and I hit 90F. I think that after the arctic melted to record low levels 07-12 the extent of the warmth increased a little. +EPO's are definitely the warmest pattern though.. especially when it is in a really strong state. We've seen recently some very cold weather in the Midwest when the EPO has gone strongly negative, like -30F readings. It's always fun to see the EPO go extreme one direction or another. 

[bluewave]

43 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Talk about a manipulation of data! So in 83 years the coldest Winter dropped, but in 50 years rose to incredible values. I don't think you can use the coldest Winter on record happening 70% through the dataset as proof.. You are comparing this past Winter with the coldest on record when it was +NAO/+WPO. 

There was no manipulation of the data. Our coldest winters in the CONUS have been warming at a slightly faster rate than the warmest winters have. You have to put away the notion that temperatures are going to warm evenly everywhere and across different seasons. 

The US and the world were in more of a stable climate from the 1890s to 1970s. There was only a very gently incline in temperatures over this period. The early stages of the warming acceleration didn’t begin until the 1980s. This rate of warming has rapidly increased over the last decade. 

You originally posted the maps from the 1978-1979 winter. The reason we could still get very cold winters as recently as the 1970s was that the temperatures weren’t  all that different from the 1890s. It was a bit more than a degree cooler than experienced in the 1890s and 1930s. So it was in the same ballpark as the very cold winters from the earlier eras. 

2024-2025 and 2020-2021 were essentially tied for the coldest winters of the 2020s so far. This level of cold is significantly warmer than the 1970s were. It’s no coincidence that the coldest winter was right before the steep increase in our winter warming began. Sometimes we get very cold months or seasons just before temperatures begin a steep rise. So this is why things have warmed so much relative to the 1970s.
 

Coldest U.S. winters by decade since 1890s

1890s…27.95°

1900s…28.69°

1910s….29.11°

1920s...28.73°

1930s…27.78°

1940s….30.14°

1950s….31.44°

1960s….30.40°

1970s….26.62°

1980s….30.56°

1990s….31.12°

2000s….31.26°

2010s…..30.70°

2020s…..33.64°

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^I'd argue that we entered decadal patterns starting in the 1980s.. especially with regards to the NAO/AO. It's actually been a 50-year positive cycle, and now we've seen the PNA negative since 1998, but that can happen with cold over Montana and the Upper Midwest. I just don't think you should use recent trends as a baseline for global warming.. there is some decadal flux, just like how the 60s/70s were colder/better patterns for snow. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

There was no manipulation of the data. Our coldest winters in the CONUS have been warming at a slightly faster rate than the warmest winters have. You have to put away the notion that temperatures are going to warm evenly everywhere and across different seasons. 

The US and the world were in more of a stable climate from the 1890s to 1970s. There was only a very gently incline in temperatures over this period. The early stages of the warming acceleration didn’t begin until the 1980s. This rate of warming has rapidly increased over the last decade. 

You originally posted the maps from the 1978-1979 winter. The reason we could still get very cold winters as recently as the 1970s was that the temperatures weren’t  all that different from the 1890s. It was a bit more than a degree cooler than experienced in the 1890s and 1930s. So it was in the same ballpark as the very cold winters from the earlier eras. 

2024-2025 and 2020-2021 were essentially tied for the coldest winters of the 2020s so far. This level of cold is significantly warmer than the 1970s were. It’s no coincidence that the coldest winter was right before the steep increase in our winter warming began. Sometimes we get very cold months or seasons just before temperatures begin a steep rise. So this is why things have warmed so much relative to the 1970s.
 

Coldest U.S. winters by decade since 1890s

1890s…27.95°

1900s…28.69°

1910s….29.11°

1920s...28.73°

1930s…27.78°

1940s….30.14°

1950s….31.44°

1960s….30.40°

1970s….26.62°

1980s….30.56°

1990s….31.12°

2000s….31.26°

2010s…..30.70°

2020s…..33.64°

Thanks, Chris.

 1. About what % of the warming of US winters since 1970s would you guess is due to the +AMO?

2. About what % of the overall warming of US winters since the 1970s would you guess is due to the increasing UHI effect at major stations?

3. About how much would you say US winters have warmed due strictly to AGW?

[FPizz]

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Chris.

 1. About what % of the warming of US winters since 1970s would you guess is due to the +AMO?

2. About what % of the overall warming of US winters since the 1970s would you guess is due to the UHI effect at major stations?

3. About how much would you say US winters have warmed due strictly to AGW?

0%, 0%, 100%  

[George BM]

On 7/7/2025 at 8:03 PM, GaWx said:

 The WCS version of the PDO has fallen quite a bit more since July 2nd. As of July 6th, it’s way down to -3.29! It was actually down to ~-3.30 on July 5th. I’ve never seen this so negative. The NOAA daily PDO is likely down to sub -4!

Check out the July 8th update... lol

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, George BM said:

Check out the July 8th update... lol

I just saw it. A -3.45 WCS PDO as of 7/8/25! New lowest I’ve ever seen! 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

I just saw it. A -3.45 WCS PDO as of 7/8/25! New lowest I’ve ever seen! 

No surprise given the record marine heatwave east of Japan.

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

5 hours ago, FPizz said:

0%, 0%, 100%  

Well, I'd personally say a negative number for (2) and suggest the UHI effect has had cooling trend on the winter averages, considering the US CRN stations [all sited in pristine rural locations] show more, not less, warming since 2005 than the full network.

[jm1220]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No surprise given the record marine heatwave east of Japan.

 

 

Not what I want to see. Should be an early slam the blinds shut for winter again for 25-26. Maybe some miracle like a bunch of recurving typhoons to cool the waters down (which I’d think would be more likely in this regime) can give it some kind of a chance. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

https://x.com/severeweatherEU/status/1942815625107145137
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-forecast-data-weak-polar-vortex-united-states-canada-winter-2025-2026-fa/

[KakashiHatake2000]

well shoot its not embedding on here but yeah posted fourteen hours ago but hopefully some encouraging signs despite the warm waters over the pacific ocean but i do hope at least some heat relief for those people over there if its a heatwave

[so_whats_happening]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't have a ton of knowledge of arctic sea ice, but I always thought a predominately +AO summer like we have had lead to less sea ice melt?

 

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yea. It makes logical sense to assume that +AO would stop or at least slow the arctic sea ice melt but obviously it hasn’t

This would have been a solid sea ice retention year the way things have progressed so far but we are starting at such a low point unfortunately you will continue to be well below normal even in the best of times. I think if the pattern holds we should escape some of the lowest values recorded but not a good situation continues to get worse.

Look at where we are volume wise compared to the last few years, which have shown some of the lowest values outside of 2007/12

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

 

This would have been a solid sea ice retention year the way things have progressed so far but we are starting at such a low point unfortunately you will continue to be well below normal even in the best of times. I think if the pattern holds we should escape some of the lowest values recorded but not a good situation continues to get worse.

Look at where we are volume wise compared to the last few years, which have shown some of the lowest values outside of 2007/12

For as strong as the SPV was last year there was very little connection at times to the TPV throughout the winter otherwise we would have progressed volume wise fairly similarly to the early 2020's.