40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 02:17 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 02:17 PM 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: EPS is showing a strong EWB in ENSO region 3.4 to start July. That should induce upwelling and renewed cooling GFS has been, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted yesterday at 02:45 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:45 PM On 6/26/2025 at 9:29 AM, snowman19 said: The solar connection to the NAO [mention=882]Gawx[/mention] found is a strong one. One of the other strongest ones I’ve seen besides your index, is a “tripole” in the SSTS appearing in June, corresponding to it reappearing during the winter months along with the associated -NAO. The study found that when June was completely void of a tripole, it corresponded to a predominantly +NAO winter. The Atlantic ACE connection to the NAO that some swear by was way too sketchy to be reliable IMO what is the cause of the connection though? what is it about the sun that would influence the atlantic ocean so much? and does it influence the pacific as much too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted yesterday at 04:05 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:05 PM GFS has been, too.Good graphic. All supportive of the current thinking of where we are heading…..which is -ENSO (cold-neutral or weak La Niña) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago Record high temperatures expected in London, for the start of Wimbledon: https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/45595840/wimbledon-readies-scorching-start-contingencies-place "The previous record temperature for the start of the grass-court major was set in 2001 at 85 degrees. Monday's expected blast of heat could even surpass the tournament record of 96.3 degrees set in 2015." So, it's possible that we could see record highs be smashed by over 11 degrees F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Looking at the EPS/GEFS/GEPS I’m starting to think there is going to be a risk for another major heat wave and big ridge moving into the east around mid-July 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Record high temperatures expected in London, for the start of Wimbledon: https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/45595840/wimbledon-readies-scorching-start-contingencies-place "The previous record temperature for the start of the grass-court major was set in 2001 at 85 degrees. Monday's expected blast of heat could even surpass the tournament record of 96.3 degrees set in 2015." So, it's possible that we could see record highs be smashed by over 11 degrees F. this is absolutely excellent, I remember when they hit 40C there, that was a landmark day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Looking at the EPS/GEFS/GEPS I’m starting to think there is going to be a risk for another major heat wave and big ridge moving into the east around mid-July I love that, sounds like some of our best summers from the 50s that had two two 100+ degree heatwaves like 1953 and the famous one from 1966 that had three separate 100+ degree heatwaves. More recently, JFK had two 100+ degree heatwaves in 1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago The PDO continues to plunge: The NOAA PDO is likely pushing -3.5! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 1 hour ago, GaWx said: The PDO continues to plunge: The NOAA PDO is likely pushing -3.5! Booooo....guess we're still in the decadal cycle of the last 9 1/2 years, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago PDO actually has a higher and warmer lead time correlation than ENSO for the Winter in much of the eastern US.. starting in about July. SE ridge more amped in PDO composite July-Oct lead Aug-Nov lead Since 2012, the PDO correlation signal has actually strengthened a little beyond this composite. Is it a little surprising that its pattern correlation strength actually matches ENSO? What we have going on with the PDO now is similar to if it was a -2 La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 9 hours ago, GaWx said: The PDO continues to plunge: The NOAA PDO is likely pushing -3.5! The record ridge over the WPAC driving the steep -PDO decline has resulted in the earliest end to the rainy season that the west of Japan has ever seen. Also part of the pattern which drove the all-time June heat the heat in the East a few days ago. So even with a neutral ENSO it’s creating a very strong La Niña background pattern. Very impressive forcing over the Maritime Continent. https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/society/general-news/20250627-266163/ Rainy season appears to have ended in various parts of western Japan, it was announced Friday. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, the season ended in the southern Kyushu region 18 days earlier than usual and 19 days earlier than last year. In the northern Kyushu region, the season ended 22 days earlier than usual and 20 days earlier than last year. The Shikoku region saw the season finish 20 days earlier than average and 20 days earlier than last year, and the Chugoku region was 22 days earlier than average and 24 days earlier than last year. In the Kinki region, the season finished 22 days earlier than average and 21 days earlier than last year. With the exception of southern Kyushu, this marks the earliest end of the rainy season in western Japan since records began in 1951. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The record ridge over the WPAC driving the steep -PDO decline has resulted in the earliest end to the rainy season that the west of Japan has ever seen. Also part of the pattern which drove the all-time June heat the heat in the East a few days ago. So even with a neutral ENSO it’s creating a very strong La Niña background pattern. Very impressive forcing over the Maritime Continent.https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/society/general-news/20250627-266163/ Rainy season appears to have ended in various parts of western Japan, it was announced Friday. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, the season ended in the southern Kyushu region 18 days earlier than usual and 19 days earlier than last year. In the northern Kyushu region, the season ended 22 days earlier than usual and 20 days earlier than last year. The Shikoku region saw the season finish 20 days earlier than average and 20 days earlier than last year, and the Chugoku region was 22 days earlier than average and 24 days earlier than last year. In the Kinki region, the season finished 22 days earlier than average and 21 days earlier than last year. With the exception of southern Kyushu, this marks the earliest end of the rainy season in western Japan since records began in 1951. I wonder if this winter will be another case of the long wave pattern/forcing resembling a strong La Niña even though ENSO is in a cold-neutral or a weak La Niña state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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