2025-2026 ENSO

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow I wonder if that was going into a big el nino? and it looks like your 1953 was as extreme as ours was!

Yes, the 10-12 day August/Sept 1953 heatwave baked a massive part of the nation. It was headline news every day in the newspaper.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yes, the 10-12 day August/Sept 1953 heatwave baked a massive part of the nation. It was headline news every day in the newspaper.

Many of our heat records are from that period between 44-55 (1944, 1948, 1949, 1953, 1955 and then 1966 which was both extremely hot and extremely dry.)

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1881 Larry

No, 1877-78 was the super el nino. 1881 came off a weak el nino, and began a 3-year ENSO neutral period.

[George BM]

Oh okay...

[michsnowfreak]

49 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

No, 1877-78 was the super el nino. 1881 came off a weak el nino, and began a 3-year ENSO neutral period.

Just goes to show enso isn't always the culprit. After a hot September, the winter of 1881-82 was awful. Warm and snowless. Stands to this day as Detroits warmest (and 2nd least snowy) winter on record. Coming after the severe winter of 1880-81 it must've been a nightmare

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Just goes to show enso isn't always the culprit. After a hot September, the winter of 1881-82 was awful. Warm and snowless. Stands to this day as Detroits warmest (and 2nd least snowy) winter on record. Coming after the severe winter of 1880-81 it must've been a nightmare

How was 1983-84 for you? We had a very hot summer that culminated with 7 days of 90+ in September including a sizzling 99 on 9/11 (our latest 99 ever) and a 95 on 9/23 lol. 1983-84 was a very cold la nina here with a couple of moderate sized snowfalls,. 4-5 inches that stayed on the ground a long time and we even went below zero (which we did in a few years during the 80s, Christmas 1980, January 1982, December 1983, January 1985.)

It was our hottest summer on record before 2010.

 

[Terpeast]

29 minutes ago, George BM said:

Oh okay...

This isn’t the first time. These neutral teases aren’t going to cut it. We need it to break through to sustained +1 at least

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, George BM said:

Oh okay...

This means that the NOAA daily PDO is likely back down to the -2.5 to -3 range.

[michsnowfreak]

37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How was 1983-84 for you? We had a very hot summer that culminated with 7 days of 90+ in September including a sizzling 99 on 9/11 (our latest 99 ever) and a 95 on 9/23 lol. 1983-84 was a very cold la nina here with a couple of moderate sized snowfalls,. 4-5 inches that stayed on the ground a long time and we even went below zero (which we did in a few years during the 80s, Christmas 1980, January 1982, December 1983, January 1985.)

It was our hottest summer on record before 2010.

 

1983-84 was a good winter! Cold and snowy. No memorable storms but 51.8" of snow overall and temps well below avg (28th coldest on record). We saw the coldest temp on the 21st century with -21F on Jan 21 (not to be confused w/ the coldest day, Jan 19, 1994, high -4, low -20).

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

1983-84 was a good winter! Cold and snowy. No memorable storms but 51.8" of snow overall and temps well below avg (28th coldest on record). We saw the coldest temp on the 21st century with -21F on Jan 21 (not to be confused w/ the coldest day, Jan 19, 1994, high -4, low -20).

wild were you also that cold on our coldest day in my life, January 20, 1985 the Reagan Inaugural, when we had a low of -2 and a high 7, the only time I can remember with a high in the single digits!!

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Completely disagree that it would take a major volcanic eruption to see a winter avg temp of 23.1F. We were 2.2F colder than that in 2014! Detroit saw a mean temp of 23.3F in 2014-15 following 20.9F in 2013-14. 

Now obviously its not common. The 23.1F mean temp in 1958-59 is the 18th coldest winter on record (and was at the time the coldest in 23 years). But I hate talking in absolutes about future weather. 

2023-24 was a warm winter but it had been seen before. March 2012 had never been seen before.

The baseline temperatures have warmed twice since the 13-14 and 14-15 winters. First in 15-16 and then again in 23-24. So the chances of Detroit seeing a winter with average temperatures as cold as 13-14 and 14-15 again without a major volcanic eruption is very low. 
 

Time Series Summary for Detroit Area, MI (ThreadEx) 10 coldest winters dense rank sorting for temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1903-1904	18.7	0
2	1874-1875	19.1	0
3	1976-1977	19.8	0
-	1917-1918	19.8	0
4	1977-1978	20.4	0
-	1962-1963	20.4	0
5	1935-1936	20.8	0
6	2013-2014	20.9	0
-	1919-1920	20.9	0
7	1978-1979	21.3	0
-	1904-1905	21.3	0
-	1892-1893	21.3	0
8	1981-1982	21.8	0
-	1911-1912	21.8	0
-	1880-1881	21.8	0
-	1878-1879	21.8	0
9	1969-1970	22.5	0
10	2014-2015	23.0	0

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The baseline temperatures have warmed twice since the 13-14 and 14-15 winters. First in 15-16 and then again in 23-24. So the chances of Detroit seeing a winter with average temperatures as cold as 13-14 and 14-15 again without a major volcanic eruption is very low. 
 

Time Series Summary for Detroit Area, MI (ThreadEx) 10 coldest winters dense rank sorting for temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1903-1904	18.7	0
2	1874-1875	19.1	0
3	1976-1977	19.8	0
-	1917-1918	19.8	0
4	1977-1978	20.4	0
-	1962-1963	20.4	0
5	1935-1936	20.8	0
6	2013-2014	20.9	0
-	1919-1920	20.9	0
7	1978-1979	21.3	0
-	1904-1905	21.3	0
-	1892-1893	21.3	0
8	1981-1982	21.8	0
-	1911-1912	21.8	0
-	1880-1881	21.8	0
-	1878-1879	21.8	0
9	1969-1970	22.5	0
10	2014-2015	23.0	0

Chris would you have said this before 2013-14 and 2014-15 too?

One thing about climate change, it means more extremes, more droughts more rain and snow, and more extreme temperatures (maybe more likely in winter than summer.)