2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This isn't the same Chuck that we had in 2006-07 *warmest winter ever* LOL

I'm just observing that the pattern seems to be breaking a little

Obviously above average is the way to go, as something like 80% of the months across the US are above average over the last 5-10 years. This coming heat ridge is also a SE ridge flexing, but it's happening with a strong +NAO which isn't as bad, imo. 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm just observing that the pattern seems to be breaking a little

Obviously above average is the way to go, as something like 80% of the months across the US are above average over the last 5-10 years. This coming heat ridge is also a SE ridge flexing, but it's happening with a strong +NAO which isn't as bad, imo. 

I want to know when places like PHL, NYC and JFK will hit 100, and I don't care about siting issues, as NYC did just fine hitting 100+ in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013.  If CC is truly increasing our summer maxima a significant amount it should have no problem hitting 100 in the city and at JFK even with siting issues and a sea breeze.  It would hit 100+ before the sea breeze comes in, which typically doesn't happen until after 2 PM.

 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Wait...I like to talk about heat records?  

Actually, I like to talk about all weather records and cold/snow far, FAR outnumber heat when it comes to what i talk about. I know my local climate history like the back of my hand. My interest is local weather history and occasionally looking up other areas for certain things, events, etc. My thing is not spending hours, days, and weeks scouring through anything on xmacis or NCDC to find some rural middle of nowhere site I can plug into my latest post.

BTW....its funny that you take coop data from 1903 at face value but have an entire laundry list of what is wrong with tons of official data (if you dont like the outcome). There are two upper peninsula stations that had official weather data in 1903. On July 1, 1903 Sault Ste Marie had a high/low of 76/60 while Houghton (closer to Baraga) had a high/low of 70/52. Downstate Detroit had a high/low of 90/70 with Lansing seeing 90/63 and Grand Rapids 84/67. 

Highs from north to south in MI on July 1, 1903

Houghton- 70/52

Baraga- 66/20

Sault Ste Marie- 76/60

Lansing- 90/63

Grand Rapids- 84/67

Detroit- 90/70

Yup, that 20F is completely believable 

well heat records can be very interesting and we can talk about them in historical context about what was happening in the country/world at the time  I think that's why you like talking about heat records with me.

For example do you know some people blamed the extremely hot 1944 summer on nuclear testing lol?

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This isn't the same Chuck that we had in 2006-07 *warmest winter ever* LOL

November, December, and most of January was extremely warm. Temperatures really bottomed out in February 2007.

Aside from the historically cold February 2015, I believe February 2007 is the next coldest February this side of 1980.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

November, December, and most of January was extremely warm. Temperatures really bottomed out in February 2007.

Aside from the historically cold February 2015, I believe February 2007 is the next coldest February this side of 1980.

Yep February-April 2007 were really cold with the VD2007 storm, the St Paddys Day 2007 storm and the Tax Day Noreaster in April.  The first three weeks of January 2007 (it hit 70) were warmer than the first three weeks of April 2007!

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

November, December, and most of January was extremely warm. Temperatures really bottomed out in February 2007.

Aside from the historically cold February 2015, I believe February 2007 is the next coldest February this side of 1980.

March was warm. It ended up being 7th warmest Winter to date, if I remember correctly. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Still an impressive -PDO.. and my N. Atlantic SST Winter NAO prediction method is now running positive

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

well heat records can be very interesting and we can talk about them in historical context about what was happening in the country/world at the time  I think that's why you like talking about heat records with me.

For example do you know some people blamed the extremely hot 1944 summer on nuclear testing lol?

 

Yeah...trust me, cold/snow are absolutely my #1. Hell the main reason I follow this thread is because as soon as one winter/snow season ends im looking forward to the next one. But heat records are interesting too, and it is summer. 

I have looked up tons of old newspaper articles online (I have an account where I can look at any Detroit Free Press since 1837), and i can assure you that heat, cold, snow/lack of snow etc were just as big of news stories then as they are now. The one huge difference is that back then anomalous weather was noted as such...but it wasn't blamed on anything. It was just a given that the weather always changes. And that fact, which will never change regardless of cc, is something that is sadly missed by some in the modern era.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yeah...trust me, cold/snow are absolutely my #1. Hell the main reason I follow this thread is because as soon as one winter/snow season ends im looking forward to the next one. But heat records are interesting too, and it is summer. 

I have looked up tons of old newspaper articles online (I have an account where I can look at any Detroit Free Press since 1837), and i can assure you that heat, cold, snow/lack of snow etc were just as big of news stories then as they are now. The one huge difference is that back then anomalous weather was noted as such...but it wasn't blamed on anything. It was just a given that the weather always changes. And that fact, which will never change regardless of cc, is something that is sadly missed by some in the modern era.

When I looked up Central Park I was shocked to learn that the very first time they hit 100 was also the latest it's ever happened -- September 7th 1881 -- 101 degrees!

The only other time they have ever hit 100+ in September was in 1953 at the end of the longest heatwave on record, 12 days -- 102 degrees and also the all time monthly record (it hit 100+ a record 4 times in 1953, evenly split between two 7+ day superheatwaves, later matched by the very dry summer of 1966.)

 

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

March was warm. It ended up being 7th warmest Winter to date, if I remember correctly. 

we had a 5 inch sleet storm here in the middle of March lol

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Wait...I like to talk about heat records?  

Actually, I like to talk about all weather records and cold/snow far, FAR outnumber heat when it comes to what i talk about. I know my local climate history like the back of my hand. My interest is local weather history and occasionally looking up other areas for certain things, events, etc. My thing is not spending hours, days, and weeks scouring through anything on xmacis or NCDC to find some rural middle of nowhere site I can plug into my latest post.

BTW....its funny that you take coop data from 1903 at face value but have an entire laundry list of what is wrong with tons of official data (if you dont like the outcome). There are two upper peninsula stations that had official weather data in 1903. On July 1, 1903 Sault Ste Marie had a high/low of 76/60 while Houghton (closer to Baraga) had a high/low of 70/52. Downstate Detroit had a high/low of 90/70 with Lansing seeing 90/63 and Grand Rapids 84/67. 

Highs from north to south in MI on July 1, 1903

Houghton- 70/52

Baraga- 66/20

Sault Ste Marie- 76/60

Lansing- 90/63

Grand Rapids- 84/67

Detroit- 90/70

Yup, that 20F is completely believable 

It was two separate sites. Baraga 1N was 60/20; and Wetmore was 66/20. Even Gaylord in the lower Peninsula was 72/49, so there was a wide disparity from south to north.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep February-April 2007 were really cold with the VD2007 storm, the St Paddys Day 2007 storm and the Tax Day Noreaster in April.  The first three weeks of January 2007 (it hit 70) were warmer than the first three weeks of April 2007!

 

April 2007, in addition to being cold, was really wet. I think it was the wettest April on record at PHL. If only we had that wet pattern in February, we could have done some epic snow totals that month.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yeah...trust me, cold/snow are absolutely my #1. Hell the main reason I follow this thread is because as soon as one winter/snow season ends im looking forward to the next one. But heat records are interesting too, and it is summer. 

I have looked up tons of old newspaper articles online (I have an account where I can look at any Detroit Free Press since 1837), and i can assure you that heat, cold, snow/lack of snow etc were just as big of news stories then as they are now. The one huge difference is that back then anomalous weather was noted as such...but it wasn't blamed on anything. It was just a given that the weather always changes. And that fact, which will never change regardless of cc, is something that is sadly missed by some in the modern era.

Yeah. It seems people that don’t follow the weather always have this misconception that drastic daily changes in weather and or extreme heat or cold never used to happen. It doesn’t help when any media story about the weather basically reinforces that idea.