2025-2026 ENSO

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Did I call anyone names? Can anyone find where I called someone a name in this thread? I was called a "troll" but don't recall calling any one a name.

Deniers. You've done it so much you can't even see it anymore.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Deniers. You've done it so much you can't even see it anymore.

 

I simply said I thought people (generally) were in denial of the recent changes. 

There is a poster here who loves calling everyone "cyclical climate deniers" and "urban heat island deniers" and "natural climate change deniers" after ironically claiming in 2021 that it was offensive term due to its common use in the context of Holocaust denial:

Showing results for 'deniers' in content posted by ChescoWx. - American Weather

Showing results for 'denier' in content posted by ChescoWx. - American Weather

He especially loves calling people by the pejorative alarmist(s):

Showing results for 'alarmists' in content posted by ChescoWx. - American Weather

Showing results for 'alarmist' in content posted by ChescoWx. - American Weather

Funny, I don't see you calling out this poster.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I simply said I thought people (generally) were in denial of the recent changes. 

There is a poster here who loves calling everyone "cyclical climate deniers" and "urban heat island deniers" and "natural climate change deniers" after ironically claiming in 2021 that it was offensive term due to its common use in the context of Holocaust denial:

Showing results for 'deniers' in content posted by ChescoWx. - American Weather

Showing results for 'denier' in content posted by ChescoWx. - American Weather

He especially loves calling people by the pejorative alarmist(s):

Showing results for 'alarmists' in content posted by ChescoWx. - American Weather

Showing results for 'alarmist' in content posted by ChescoWx. - American Weather

Funny, I don't see you calling out this poster.

Last post. I don't care about cc. There's nothing I can do about it and neither can you, assuming it's even a bad thing. Your wasting your time, if not your life, posting in here about it. Just because people post about temps generally or casually mention it isn't a green light to go into the subject  here because there's a forum for it. 

You wanna' talk Enso, have at it.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I simply said I thought people (generally) were in denial of the recent changes. 

There is a poster here who loves calling everyone "cyclical climate deniers" and "urban heat island deniers" and "natural climate change deniers" after ironically claiming in 2021 that it was offensive term due to its common use in the context of Holocaust denial:

Showing results for 'deniers' in content posted by ChescoWx. - American Weather

Showing results for 'denier' in content posted by ChescoWx. - American Weather

He especially loves calling people by the pejorative alarmist(s):

Showing results for 'alarmists' in content posted by ChescoWx. - American Weather

Showing results for 'alarmist' in content posted by ChescoWx. - American Weather

Funny, I don't see you calling out this poster.

He doesn't post in this thread.  He gets called out constantly by those in the threads he posts in though.  

[roardog]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The climate has never been "stable" here and many other places. Stable is a place like San Diego or Barrow. As a matter of fact, Ive yet to see a more erratic grouping of winters than we had from 1875-1882 (see bottom). Just because the globe is warmer than it was, the actual climate was anything but stable from 1880 to 1870 here. The year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability always has and always will exist. If there is to be any longterm significant change in snowfall in the Great Lakes region, we will need a lot more years of data to come.

Winter avg temp at Detroit (current avg is 28.4F for reference):

1874-75: 19.1F
1875-76: 31.0F
1876-77: 23.5F
1877-78: 31.5F
1878-79: 21.8F
1879-80: 32.5F
1880-81: 21.8F
1881-82: 37.0F (warmest on record to this day)
 

I like this post. This is why there's so much disagreement among the general population(and even some posters here)about climate change. How many people that don't understand anything about weather or climate would guess that there were 4 winters in Detroit between 1874 and 1882 that were warmer than today's average with some significantly so? Not many I bet. People just can't grasp that we're talking about an average global temp and in many cases, it's tenths of a degree we're talking about. It's still cold in the arctic and warm along the equator. It still snows at the North Pole in the summer and can even snow around here in May. That doesn't mean the earth isn't warming and it doesn't mean the earth is cooling. It's just "normal" weather variation. You will still have cold records, it's just that warm records are likely to outpace the cold records. If you aren't someone that pays attention to the weather(like most people)then you don't know this stuff because the media is just as clueless about any of this as the average person. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

So even other legendary cold months like January 2004 and January 1994 don't compare to what we had in February 1979?

 

Not on the geographic footprint size and the magnitude of the cold across the CONUS.

January 1994 and 2004 were focused in the Northeast ranking as the 5th and 11th coldest Januaries for the Northeast. But they weren’t high ranking cold Januaries for the CONUS. 

The 1970s were the last top 10 coldest winters for the entire CONUS. Those Arctic outbreaks were widespread across North America and the Northern Hemisphere. The last top 20 cold for the CONUS was in the 1980s. The last top 30 cold for the CONUS was in 2009-2010 which ranked as the 21st coldest winter. The last top 40 coldest winter was in 2013-2014 with a CONUS ranking as 32nd coldest. 

All the noteworthy high ranking winters since 2012 were for top warmest. Including the new 1st place warmest in 2023-2024 and 6 other top 30 warmest winters. 
 

Top 21 coldest and warmest winters in the CONUS since the 1970s

Coldest 

#1…..1978-1979

#7…..1977-1978

#12…1976-1977

#14…1983-1984

#19…1984-1985

#21…2009-2010

Warmest

#1….2023-2024

#2….2015-2016

#5….2011-2012

#7….2019-2020

#9….2016-2017

#18…2022-2023

#21….2021-2022

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Last post. I don't care about cc. There's nothing I can do about it and neither can you, assuming it's even a bad thing. Your wasting your time, if not your life, posting in here about it. Just because people post about temps generally or casually mention it isn't a green light to go into the subject  here because there's a forum for it. 

You wanna' talk Enso, have at it.

I am the exact same! I love discussing weather data past/present, dont really care about cc. It has its place in weather discussion, but constant derailment of threads is annoying. Im actually quite satisfied with my climate overall, so I dont really care what happens in other countries or what not. But when I see stats (my weather speciality) being twisted, I call things out. Or the fact that any below average temp period now has to have some unexpected reasoning behind it lol.

[michsnowfreak]

19 minutes ago, roardog said:

I like this post. This is why there's so much disagreement among the general population(and even some posters here)about climate change. How many people that don't understand anything about weather or climate would guess that there were 4 winters in Detroit between 1874 and 1882 that were warmer than today's average with some significantly so? Not many I bet. People just can't grasp that we're talking about an average global temp and in many cases, it's tenths of a degree we're talking about. It's still cold in the arctic and warm along the equator. It still snows at the North Pole in the summer and can even snow around here in May. That doesn't mean the earth isn't warming and it doesn't mean the earth is cooling. It's just "normal" weather variation. You will still have cold records, it's just that warm records are likely to outpace the cold records. If you aren't someone that pays attention to the weather(like most people)then you don't know this stuff because the media is just as clueless about any of this as the average person. 

Amen! Thank you! And snowfall is another thing too - there were many snowy winters of yesteryear....but many low snow, relatively bare ones too. The year to year changes of our weather in MI and how different they are, despite living in the epitome of a 4-seasons climate, is what initially drove my fascination in the weather. I began talking with DTX climate historian (now retired) Bill Deedler when I was in junior high. My actual observing of the weather soon followed, and weather boards & watching forecast models came later than that. The rhetoric of some that imply that everything always warms or snow goes down is a joke, and I think this is what leads to so much of the general public to mock cc, especially when its abnormally cold or snowy. With the cold weather we will be seeing the last third of May here, I can guarentee that social media posts on the unseasonable chill will be mocked with "so much for global warming". Climate has unfortunately become very political, like so much else. But Ill stick to weather. 

Back to the actual ENSO discussion, it would appear that anything from weak nino thru weak nina is on the table, but a lean towards cold neutral is likely. Im liking many of the early factors for a good winter for the Great Lakes next year, but obviously so much to iron out. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it would have been an even colder year if that record high waited just one more day!

Oh trust me, Ive thought of that too.

12/31/1875: 65 / 46
01/01/1876: 65 / 41
01/02/1876: 62 / 38

But actually, the entire last third of Dec 1875 was very mild. The 20-day stretch from Dec 21, 1875 to Jan 9, 1876, using todays current 30-year norms, was +12.1F and is the warmest on record for that period, after nothing but record cold in 1875! Jan 1876 was the least snowy Jan on record with just 0.3", and then 3 snowstorms (4.1", 5.2", 9.0") hit the last third of March. Like I said, cant make up the weather!

The Saturday, January 1, 1876 Detroit Free Press had a blurb about the weather under their "Sayings and Doings" column. And I love it because they were mocking the "oldest inhabitant" (back then, they always made fun of the "oldest inhabitants" for their weather insight whenever there was an anomalous weather event). Im sure it didnt actually hit 74, but tells you how warm it was.

 

 

 

[roardog]

29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 With the cold weather we will be seeing the last third of May here, I can guarentee that social media posts on the unseasonable chill will be mocked with "so much for global warming".

There will be for sure. This kind of goes back to what I was talking about also. Yes, this week into the weekend will definitely have below average temperatures but the type of weather coming up is far from unusual for late May/Memorial Day Weekend. There's been many times when Memorial Day Weekend is chilly. I even feel like there might be more that are what you would call chilly than warm. However, most people that don't pay attention to the weather are not going to remember that. They'll remember the ones that had highs in the 80s each day and forget about all of the ones that had highs in the 50s or 60s. Then they'll say how they can't believe how cold it is and they never remember it ever being this cold for the holiday.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

There will be for sure. This kind of goes back to what I was talking about also. Yes, this week into the weekend will definitely have below average temperatures but the type of weather coming up is far from unusual for late May/Memorial Day Weekend. There's been many times when Memorial Day Weekend is chilly. I even feel like there might be more that are what you would call chilly than warm. However, most people that don't pay attention to the weather are not going to remember that. They'll remember the ones that had highs in the 80s each day and forget about all of the ones that had highs in the 50s or 60s. Then they'll say how they can't believe how cold it is and they never remember it ever being this cold for the holiday.

as long as the sun is out it will hit 70 here for Memorial Day.  The cold weather will come this week with the rain and be out of here by the weekend.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Not on the geographic footprint size and the magnitude of the cold across the CONUS.

January 1994 and 2004 were focused in the Northeast ranking as the 5th and 11th coldest Januaries for the Northeast. But they weren’t high ranking cold Januaries for the CONUS. 

The 1970s were the last top 10 coldest winters for the entire CONUS. Those Arctic outbreaks were widespread across North America and the Northern Hemisphere. The last top 20 cold for the CONUS was in the 1980s. The last top 30 cold for the CONUS was in 2009-2010 which ranked as the 21st coldest winter. The last top 40 coldest winter was in 2013-2014 with a CONUS ranking as 32nd coldest. 

All the noteworthy high ranking winters since 2012 were for top warmest. Including the new 1st place warmest in 2023-2024 and 6 other top 30 warmest winters. 
 

Top 21 coldest and warmest winters in the CONUS since the 1970s

Coldest 

#1…..1978-1979

#7…..1977-1978

#12…1976-1977

#14…1983-1984

#19…1984-1985

#21…2009-2010

Warmest

#1….2023-2024

#2….2015-2016

#5….2011-2012

#7….2019-2020

#9….2016-2017

#18…2022-2023

#21….2021-2022

 

 

wow I'm shocked 2010-11 and 2013-14 aren't on the coldest list, as they were pretty cold too.  2014-15 I understand because December to mid January was mild. 1995-96 had that three week thaw in January. 2002-03 was cold but more snowy than cold.

Going back to the 80s, I would have thought 1981-82 should be on there as it was an extremely cold winter that lasted into April!

[michsnowfreak]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

as long as the sun is out it will hit 70 here for Memorial Day.  The cold weather will come this week with the rain and be out of here by the weekend.

Highs in the 50s/lows in the 40s dominate the week here. Going to the Tigers game Friday, definitely hoodie weather. Should warm into the weekend to 60s/40s but no heat in sight.

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow I'm shocked 2010-11 and 2013-14 aren't on the coldest list, as they were pretty cold too.  2014-15 I understand because December to mid January was mild. 1995-96 had that three week thaw in January. 2002-03 was cold but more snowy than cold.

Going back to the 80s, I would have thought 1981-82 should be on there as it was an extremely cold winter that lasted into April!

It is surprising esp since its only since 1970 but again, that is for the CONUS. Here, 1981-82, 2013-14 & 2014-15 all rank in Detroits all-time top 20 coldest winters (not just since 1970). 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Highs in the 50s/lows in the 40s dominate the week here. Going to the Tigers game Friday, definitely hoodie weather. Should warm into the weekend to 60s/40s but no heat in sight.

My ideal weather is 70 with sun, 50s is still heater weather for me lol.  60s are okay as long as the sun is out and it's not windy.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It is surprising esp since its only since 1970 but again, that is for the CONUS. Here, 1981-82, 2013-14 & 2014-15 all rank in Detroits all-time top 20 coldest winters (not just since 1970). 

It's shocking how cold some of those 80s winters were nearby.  Central Park may not have hit -10 or colder since 1934 but Newark and even Philly either hit -10 or came close during the early 80s.  Off the top of my head, Christmas 1980 was one of those days and even had snow with temperatures near 0.  January 1982 also had that and a blizzard in April with temperatures in the upper teens! 1983-84 was also extremely cold with a la nina that came after the big el nino. January 1985 had a historic arctic outbreak with lows below 0 and highs only in the single digits here.

Even 1982-83 with the big el nino had a historic 20"+ snowstorm in February and the latest snowfall on record at JFK on April 19th.

 

[roardog]

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

My ideal weather is 70 with sun, 50s is still heater weather for me lol.  60s are okay as long as the sun is out and it's not windy.

You would hate it here today. Right now it’s sunny and 49F. Frost possible with mid 30s tonight and yes the furnace is definitely on. lol

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

You would hate it here today. Right now it’s sunny and 49F. Frost possible with mid 30s tonight and yes the furnace is definitely on. lol

Good lord lol, I'm glad I have a space heater in my bedroom.

I guess I'm picky, sometimes I go from having my ceiling fan and sometimes even air conditioning on during the day and the heater on at night.

[GaWx]

OHC continues to rise:

[PhiEaglesfan712]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow I'm shocked 2010-11 and 2013-14 aren't on the coldest list, as they were pretty cold too.  2014-15 I understand because December to mid January was mild. 1995-96 had that three week thaw in January. 2002-03 was cold but more snowy than cold.

Going back to the 80s, I would have thought 1981-82 should be on there as it was an extremely cold winter that lasted into April!

I'm not really surprised about 2013-14, as that was a very warm winter out west (same with 2014-15). 2010-11 was the one that surprised me. I thought it would make it, especially as a strong la nina year, and not really having the extreme warmth out west of a 13-14 or 14-15.

2009-10 making the list is more impressive to me, considering that was a strong el nino. Usually, strong el ninos are warm CONUS, as you can see with 2015-16 and 2023-24 taking the #1 and #2 spots.

Regarding 1981-82, the bulk of the snow and cold were in January and that April event. February and March were rather quiet.

[so_whats_happening]

So we are just done talking about ENSO in an ENSO thread and this has now become a historical catalog for snowfall accuracy and debating climate?

[so_whats_happening]

Anyway here is the last month and a half of TAO data showing the increase in OHC GAWX just showed. This should still maintain a Nina-like atmosphere through at least most of the summer would not be surprised if we start to see some flare ups of Nino-like progression into Fall just not enough to flip the script.

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow I'm shocked 2010-11 and 2013-14 aren't on the coldest list, as they were pretty cold too.  2014-15 I understand because December to mid January was mild. 1995-96 had that three week thaw in January. 2002-03 was cold but more snowy than cold.

Going back to the 80s, I would have thought 1981-82 should be on there as it was an extremely cold winter that lasted into April!

Chalk it up to the shrinking Northern Hemisphere winter cold pool over the decades. The rankings I provided are for the entire CONUS. The rankings go from 1895 to the present. So it’s impressive that the coldest winter for the CONUS was 1978-1979. But there were probably colder winters prior to 1895 before the entire CONUS rankings began. 

You can see how the geographic footprint and magnitude of the cold has been getting smaller. So it’s not unusual for a winter like 13-14 to have its cold focused into a smaller regional area and not having the coverage of earlier decades. There has such limited cold relative to the past in the 2020s, that this recent cooler winter wasn’t anything like colder winters even in the 2010s. 

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Winters from each decade compared to the then-applicable climate norms. Dating back to at least the 1990s, there has never been a decade in the northeast or midwest that was even close to being below the applicable normal temps for winter temperatures. I would highly doubt that trend changes now.

1991-2000 mean versus 1961-1990 base period:

2001-2010 mean versus 1971-2000 base period:

2011-2020 mean versus 1981-2010 base period:

2020s (to date) mean versus 1991-2020 base period:

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Winters from each decade compared to the then-applicable climate norms. Dating back to at least the 1990s, there has never been a decade in the northeast or midwest that was even close to being below the applicable normal temps for winter temperatures. I would highly doubt that trend changes now.

1991-2000 mean versus 1961-1990 base period:

2001-2010 mean versus 1971-2000 base period:

2011-2020 mean versus 1981-2010 base period:

2020s (to date) mean versus 1991-2020 base period:

 

 

The 1990s had a ton of high snow years despite being a blow torch overall. By the 2030s, normals will be too high for such a scenario to even be possible. Normals will have have climbed 3-5F over 1961-1990 normals by 2031. A normal winter in the 2030s would have looked like a blow torch in 1999. This is undeniable and factual.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The 1990s had a ton of high snow years despite being a blow torch overall. By the 2030s, normals will be too high for such a scenario to even be possible. Normals will have have climbed 3-5F over 1961-1990 normals by 2031. A normal winter in the 2030s would have looked like a blow torch in 1999. This is undeniable and factual.

 

For instance, here is Detroit:

1961-1990 average wintertime mean is 25.4F.

Incomplete 2001-2030 average is currently up to 28.6F (+3.2F over 1961-1990)

[TheClimateChanger]

Philadelphia

1961-1990 mean: 32.9F

Incomplete 2001-2030 mean: 36.7F (+3.8F over 1961-1990)

Maybe a place like Detroit is still cold enough for big time snows even in a warmer than normal regime, but it would be hard to envision a scenario where Philadelphia sees hefty snows in the 2030s if the 2030s average say 1.5-2F above the 2001-2030 means, with such a mild baseline climate.

[FPizz]

5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The 1990s had a ton of high snow years despite being a blow torch overall. By the 2030s, normals will be too high for such a scenario to even be possible. Normals will have have climbed 3-5F over 1961-1990 normals by 2031. A normal winter in the 2030s would have looked like a blow torch in 1999. This is undeniable and factual.

 

yup, zero snow coming for us all in 5 years.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

yup, zero snow coming for us all in 5 years.

I didn't say that. Especially northern areas are still cold enough to benefit from increased moisture availability, but the baseline climate of more southern Mid Atlantic climates has shifted so much that significant snowfall in even a "normal" temperature regime requires lots of needle threading. Certainly, they could still do well in a particularly cold winter [relative to the norms].

I just wanted to examine what Chuck had posited a few pages back with a possible shift in PDO/AMO. It might be rather surprising but each of the last 4 decades in the east has winded up above normal for temperatures in the wintertime, relative to the existing normals.