Eskimo Joe Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 2 minutes ago, yoda said: That would be high end around here tbh IMO Best I've seen is 8+. We get that, we're in for high end. As I've said several times, good mid level lapse rates allow for storms to survive the rapid terrain changes in these parts. It's probably our best insurance policy for organized severe weather in these parts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Kind of surprised we are almost at 1pm and no MCD. There has been initiation out in WV for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 38 minutes ago, yoda said: Kind of surprised we are almost at 1pm and no MCD. There has been initiation out in WV for a bit It looks like a hefty line is forming in western VA. I'm surprised there's not a watch box yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 41 minutes ago, yoda said: Kind of surprised we are almost at 1pm and no MCD. There has been initiation out in WV for a bit Finally MCD'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 415 ACUS11 KWNS 191722 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191722 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-191915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025 AREAS AFFECTED...MID-ATLANTIC REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 191722Z - 191915Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE OFF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A WATCH IS LIKELY. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION GRADUALLY DEEPENING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY, THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL LIKELY MEAN BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS AS WELL AS A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, PARTICULARLY WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE, BUT WEAK WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (SAMPLE BY MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION) SHOULD LIMIT THAT THREAT. MODEST ENHANCEMENT TO THE 850 MB WINDS WILL PROMOTE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR THE THREAT OF A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. ..WENDT/HART.. 06/19/2025 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 37618051 38657993 40287794 40817698 40697497 40177473 37627670 36947781 36707996 37018057 37618051 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Big cell blew up in Greenbrier County WV and just went NW of me into Bath County. Not warned, but I'm getting 20-30 mph gusts from the outflow from N/NE. Looks like another batch is inbound from SW shortly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 53 minutes ago, yoda said: Kind of surprised we are almost at 1pm and no MCD. There has been initiation out in WV for a bit It's out. Blue Box coming. Really like the new graphics from SPC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago It begins BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 135 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... North central Shenandoah County in northwestern Virginia... Frederick County in northwestern Virginia... The City of Winchester in northwestern Virginia... Northeastern Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Southwestern Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Southeastern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 215 PM EDT. * At 134 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wardensville, or 16 miles east of Moorefield, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Winchester, Millwood Pike, Wardensville, Star Tannery, Capon Bridge, Yellow Spring, High View, Cedar Grove, Stephenson, Delray, Cross Junction, Baker, Gore, Albin, Capon Springs, Mccauley, Gravel Springs, Greenwood, Gainesboro, and High View Manor. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Only thing we have going against us are weak mid level lapse rates. Would lean towards the pulse type storms with a few decent wind reports today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Watch up until 9pm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Mentions isolated significant gusts to 75mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, yoda said: Mentions isolated significant gusts to 75mph I'm guessing 70/30 wind probs based on the watch wording? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 442 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland Northern North Carolina New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Central and Eastern Virginia Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will move off the mountains of western Virginia and southern Pennsylvania, spreading eastward across the watch through the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and hail are possible in the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Allentown PA to 20 miles east of Danville VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago New STW up for my yard Severe Thunderstorm Warning MDC021-043-WVC003-037-065-191845- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0147.250619T1744Z-250619T1845Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 144 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Washington County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Central Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 245 PM EDT. * At 144 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast of Greenwood, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Hagerstown, Martinsburg, Thurmont, Shepherdstown, Hancock, Municipal Stadium, Greenwood, Robinwood, Fountainhead-Orchard Hills, Boonsboro, Smithsburg, Paramount-Long Meadow, Wilson-Conococheague, Williamsport, Berkeley Springs, Mount Aetna, Mount Lena, San Mar, Long Meadow, and Wolfsville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, George BM said: I'm guessing 70/30 wind probs based on the watch wording? Correct 10% probs on two or more tornadoes... 20/10 on hail probs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago I'm guessing the severe warned storms back in W WV are with the actual cold front itself? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 29 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: Big cell blew up in Greenbrier County WV and just went NW of me into Bath County. Not warned, but I'm getting 20-30 mph gusts from the outflow from N/NE. Looks like another batch is inbound from SW shortly. That storm is now severe warned in western Augusta County. Storm to the SW is here, lots of T&L and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 6 minutes ago, yoda said: I'm guessing the severe warned storms back in W WV are with the actual cold front itself? I think the actual front is associated with that thin line of storm in Ohio. It would be fun to get multiple rounds of frisky storms today. I'm hiking around Bacon Ridge surveying the damage path from the funnel cloud that moved from Odenton through Crownsville. The path came across route 3 as it headed east, along side Severn Chaple RD. It's definitely a path. Not down burst or straight line wind. The path is only about two acres wide. I'd estimate the winds were 60-70 in the most effected area. There's lots of branches and tree tops on a section of trail in Bacon Ridge, off Forney RD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Brief TVS sig NE of Winchester on Radarscope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Numerous trees down in Shenandoah per LSR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Old school squall line day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Lot of trees being blown down per LSRs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Hmmmm Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 224 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Heat and humidity continue ahead of a potent cold front that looks to cross the region. The front will bring a widespread risk of severe weather to the area with damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall as the primary concerns. Drier and less humid Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds into the region. A prolonged period of excessive heat is expected Sunday into the middle part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 18Z/2 PM EDT, a solid line of thunderstorms was developing rapidly along a prefrontal trough. This line, fueled by convergence along the trough and height falls ahead of an approaching short wave, will strengthen as it moves east into an increasingly unstable airmass. Shear is modest at 30-35 kts but these speeds extend through nearly the entire troposphere, and when coupled with high PWs and steepening low-level lapse rates is very favorable for numerous damaging wind gusts. Transient supercell structures are possible embedded within this line, but more so heading into the late afternoon and evening with any secondary development along the synoptic cold front as it approaches. Shear aloft will increase during this time. Be aware that there may be more than one round of strong storms through this evening. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Skies are super dark to my west. May get clipped by one storm as it heads into PA. Larger storm behind it coming into Westminster now that should hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago vere Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 322 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 VAC047-059-061-107-153-179-683-685-192000- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-250619T2000Z/ Loudoun VA-Stafford VA-Fairfax VA-Fauquier VA-Culpeper VA- City of Manassas Park VA-Prince William VA-City of Manassas VA- 322 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOUDOUN...NORTHWESTERN STAFFORD...WESTERN FAIRFAX... EASTERN FAUQUIER...CENTRAL CULPEPER...AND PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES... THE CITY OF MANASSAS PARK AND THE CITY OF MANASSAS... At 321 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bealeton, or 8 miles southwest of Warrenton, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Emergency management reports a history of downed trees with this line of storms. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Centreville, Dale City, South Riding, Broadlands, Brambleton, Warrenton, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Linton Hall, Sterling, Chantilly, Montclair, Bull Run, Triangle, Dumfries, Bealeton, Haymarket, Arcola, The Plains, and Manassas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3840 7801 3859 7782 3889 7786 3903 7743 3853 7731 TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 259DEG 40KT 3862 7789 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, yoda said: vere Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 322 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 VAC047-059-061-107-153-179-683-685-192000- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-250619T2000Z/ Loudoun VA-Stafford VA-Fairfax VA-Fauquier VA-Culpeper VA- City of Manassas Park VA-Prince William VA-City of Manassas VA- 322 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOUDOUN...NORTHWESTERN STAFFORD...WESTERN FAIRFAX... EASTERN FAUQUIER...CENTRAL CULPEPER...AND PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES... THE CITY OF MANASSAS PARK AND THE CITY OF MANASSAS... At 321 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bealeton, or 8 miles southwest of Warrenton, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Emergency management reports a history of downed trees with this line of storms. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Centreville, Dale City, South Riding, Broadlands, Brambleton, Warrenton, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Linton Hall, Sterling, Chantilly, Montclair, Bull Run, Triangle, Dumfries, Bealeton, Haymarket, Arcola, The Plains, and Manassas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3840 7801 3859 7782 3889 7786 3903 7743 3853 7731 TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 259DEG 40KT 3862 7789 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH Headed my way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Headed my way Headed toward DC metro within the hour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago do we think there is actually a second round? Hoping evening pool isn’t in jeopardy - though late afternoon seems screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Ouch time BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 337 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... North central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 400 PM EDT. * At 336 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Middleburg, or 9 miles southwest of Brambleton, moving east at 50 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR ALDIE, ARCOLA, DULLES INTERNATONAL AIRPORT, STERLING.... HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. * Locations impacted include... Reston, South Riding, Herndon, Broadlands, Brambleton, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Sterling, Chantilly, Countryside, Arcola, Aldie, Halfway, and Sterling Park. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. Damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3887 7776 3894 7778 3906 7742 3891 7734 TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 255DEG 42KT 3892 7768 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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