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2025 Severe Weather General Discussion

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, yoda said:

That would be high end around here tbh IMO

Best I've seen is 8+. We get that, we're in for high end. 

As I've said several times, good mid level lapse rates allow for storms to survive the rapid terrain changes in these parts. It's probably our best insurance policy for organized severe weather in these parts.

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Kmlwx
Kmlwx

@WxWatcher007 - I was being SO serious when I said I wanted to turn it into a blanket. It arrived today. Well worth it. 

snowfan
snowfan

In Bmore earlier right before the tornado warning was issued.

snowfan
snowfan

The cell running south of Columbia from my part of AA co.     

Posted Images

George BM

George BM

Posted
Posted

415   
ACUS11 KWNS 191722  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 191722   
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-191915-  
  
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1222 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...MID-ATLANTIC REGION  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 191722Z - 191915Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE OFF THE  
BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD,  
THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO  
POSSIBLE. A WATCH IS LIKELY.  
  
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION GRADUALLY DEEPENING  
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN THE  
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF THIS  
ACTIVITY, THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON. 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL LIKELY MEAN BROKEN  
LINE SEGMENTS AS WELL AS A FEW SUPERCELLS.  
  
THE PRIMARY HAZARD THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS,  
PARTICULARLY WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP. ISOLATED LARGE  
HAIL IS POSSIBLE, BUT WEAK WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS AND POOR MID-LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES (SAMPLE BY MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION) SHOULD  
LIMIT THAT THREAT. MODEST ENHANCEMENT TO THE 850 MB WINDS WILL  
PROMOTE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR THE THREAT OF A BRIEF TORNADO  
OR TWO.  
  
..WENDT/HART.. 06/19/2025  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
  
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...  
  
LAT...LON   37618051 38657993 40287794 40817698 40697497 40177473  
            37627670 36947781 36707996 37018057 37618051   
  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN  

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

It begins 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
135 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  North central Shenandoah County in northwestern Virginia...
  Frederick County in northwestern Virginia...
  The City of Winchester in northwestern Virginia...
  Northeastern Hardy County in eastern West Virginia...
  Southwestern Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...
  Southeastern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia...

* Until 215 PM EDT.

* At 134 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wardensville,
  or 16 miles east of Moorefield, moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Winchester, Millwood Pike, Wardensville, Star Tannery, Capon
  Bridge, Yellow Spring, High View, Cedar Grove, Stephenson, Delray,
  Cross Junction, Baker, Gore, Albin, Capon Springs, Mccauley, Gravel
  Springs, Greenwood, Gainesboro, and High View Manor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning
are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is
one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
 
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 442
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   145 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Delaware
     Maryland
     Northern North Carolina
     New Jersey
     Southeast Pennsylvania
     Central and Eastern Virginia
     Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
     900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will move off the mountains of
   western Virginia and southern Pennsylvania, spreading eastward
   across the watch through the afternoon and evening.  Damaging wind
   gusts and hail are possible in the stronger storms.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
   statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast
   of Allentown PA to 20 miles east of Danville VA. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
 
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WVclimo

WVclimo

Posted
Posted

New STW up for my yard 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
MDC021-043-WVC003-037-065-191845-
/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0147.250619T1744Z-250619T1845Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
144 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Washington County in north central Maryland...
  Northwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland...
  Northeastern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...
  Central Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...
  Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...

* Until 245 PM EDT.

* At 144 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast
  of Greenwood, moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hagerstown, Martinsburg, Thurmont, Shepherdstown, Hancock,
  Municipal Stadium, Greenwood, Robinwood, Fountainhead-Orchard
  Hills, Boonsboro, Smithsburg, Paramount-Long Meadow,
  Wilson-Conococheague, Williamsport, Berkeley Springs, Mount Aetna,
  Mount Lena, San Mar, Long Meadow, and Wolfsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning
are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is
one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
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wxdude64

wxdude64

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Big cell blew up in Greenbrier County WV and just went NW of me into Bath County. Not warned, but I'm getting 20-30 mph gusts from the outflow from N/NE. Looks like another batch is inbound from SW shortly.

That storm is now severe warned in western Augusta County. Storm to the SW is here, lots of T&L and rain. 

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dailylurker

dailylurker

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'm guessing the severe warned storms back in W WV are with the actual cold front itself?

I think the actual front is associated with that thin line of storm in Ohio. It would be fun to get multiple rounds of frisky storms today. 

I'm hiking around Bacon Ridge surveying the damage path from the funnel cloud that moved from Odenton through Crownsville. The path came across route 3 as it headed east, along side Severn Chaple RD. It's definitely a path. Not down burst or straight line wind. The path is only about two acres wide. I'd estimate the winds were 60-70 in the most effected area. There's lots of branches and tree tops on a section of trail in Bacon Ridge, off Forney RD.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Hmmmm 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
224 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and humidity continue ahead of a potent cold front that
looks to cross the region. The front will bring a widespread
risk of severe weather to the area with damaging winds, large
hail, and heavy rainfall as the primary concerns. Drier and less
humid Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds into the
region. A prolonged period of excessive heat is expected Sunday
into the middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 18Z/2 PM EDT, a solid line of thunderstorms was developing
rapidly along a prefrontal trough. This line, fueled by
convergence along the trough and height falls ahead of an
approaching short wave, will strengthen as it moves east into an
increasingly unstable airmass. Shear is modest at 30-35 kts but
these speeds extend through nearly the entire troposphere, and
when coupled with high PWs and steepening low-level lapse rates
is very favorable for numerous damaging wind gusts.

Transient supercell structures are possible embedded within
this line, but more so heading into the late afternoon and
evening with any secondary development along the synoptic cold
front as it approaches. Shear aloft will increase during this
time. Be aware that there may be more than one round of strong
storms through this evening.
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
vere Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
322 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

VAC047-059-061-107-153-179-683-685-192000-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-250619T2000Z/
Loudoun VA-Stafford VA-Fairfax VA-Fauquier VA-Culpeper VA-
City of Manassas Park VA-Prince William VA-City of Manassas VA-
322 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOUDOUN...NORTHWESTERN STAFFORD...WESTERN FAIRFAX...
EASTERN FAUQUIER...CENTRAL CULPEPER...AND PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES...
THE CITY OF MANASSAS PARK AND THE CITY OF MANASSAS...

At 321 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bealeton, or 8
miles southwest of Warrenton, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Emergency management reports a history of downed trees with
         this line of storms.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Centreville, Dale City, South Riding, Broadlands, Brambleton,
Warrenton, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Linton Hall,
Sterling, Chantilly, Montclair, Bull Run, Triangle, Dumfries,
Bealeton, Haymarket, Arcola, The Plains, and Manassas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3840 7801 3859 7782 3889 7786 3903 7743
      3853 7731
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 259DEG 40KT 3862 7789

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
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aldie 22

aldie 22

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, yoda said: 
vere Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
322 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

VAC047-059-061-107-153-179-683-685-192000-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-250619T2000Z/
Loudoun VA-Stafford VA-Fairfax VA-Fauquier VA-Culpeper VA-
City of Manassas Park VA-Prince William VA-City of Manassas VA-
322 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOUDOUN...NORTHWESTERN STAFFORD...WESTERN FAIRFAX...
EASTERN FAUQUIER...CENTRAL CULPEPER...AND PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES...
THE CITY OF MANASSAS PARK AND THE CITY OF MANASSAS...

At 321 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bealeton, or 8
miles southwest of Warrenton, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Emergency management reports a history of downed trees with
         this line of storms.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Centreville, Dale City, South Riding, Broadlands, Brambleton,
Warrenton, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Linton Hall,
Sterling, Chantilly, Montclair, Bull Run, Triangle, Dumfries,
Bealeton, Haymarket, Arcola, The Plains, and Manassas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3840 7801 3859 7782 3889 7786 3903 7743
      3853 7731
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 259DEG 40KT 3862 7789

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

Headed my way

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Ouch time  

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
337 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia...
  Northwestern Fairfax County in northern Virginia...
  North central Fauquier County in northern Virginia...
  Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 336 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Middleburg,
  or 9 miles southwest of Brambleton, moving east at 50 mph.

THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR ALDIE, ARCOLA, DULLES INTERNATONAL
AIRPORT, STERLING....

  HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your
           life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to
           some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to
           roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes.

* Locations impacted include...
  Reston, South Riding, Herndon, Broadlands, Brambleton, Dulles
  International Airport, Ashburn, Sterling, Chantilly, Countryside,
  Arcola, Aldie, Halfway, and Sterling Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind
speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are
especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be
overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause
serious injury and significant property damage.

Damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are
occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is
one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3887 7776 3894 7778 3906 7742 3891 7734
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 255DEG 42KT 3892 7768

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH
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