Rhino16 Posted Tuesday at 08:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:21 PM 23 hours ago, high risk said: The NAM Nest is the gold standard. The HiresW ARW2 is decent. HRRR and especially the HiresW FV3 are the worst. When they both showed the warm front staying south of DC yesterday, I started writing off severe potential up our way. Are there any good resources to learn little things like this, or is it all just time, experience, and networking? It feels like there’s still so much to learn. I should practice forecasting while I’m not doing anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Wednesday at 03:48 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:48 AM 7 hours ago, Rhino16 said: Are there any good resources to learn little things like this, or is it all just time, experience, and networking? It feels like there’s still so much to learn. I should practice forecasting while I’m not doing anything. Experience, for sure. I always look at as much available guidance as I can, and when they don't agree, I make mental notes on which ones did well and which didn't. It's not as tough to keep track of as it sounds. Or you can just cheat and use AI: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Wednesday at 01:28 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 01:28 PM CIPS has casually been showing June 4, 2008 in the analogs (not the top one at all) for the upcoming period. Not giving it much thought for now - but we'll see if we can squeeze some storms out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Wednesday at 05:09 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 05:09 PM June 2008 is still showing on the 12z updates to the CIPS guidance. Interestingly, if you sort solely by 500mb rather than all fields, it is the top analog with a score of 0.918. While I doubt we realize that high end of a threat - it's definitely got my attention. Worth noting that some of the neighboring domains on there also have June 4-5 2008 showing up as well. Obvious questions remain in regards to day-of factors like instability - but my interest level has risen a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Thursday at 10:52 AM Share Posted Thursday at 10:52 AM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Thursday at 02:00 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:00 PM 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Seriously, almost 80 degree DP in certain locations in the Midwest, wow ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Thursday at 03:11 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:11 PM 1 hour ago, frd said: Seriously, almost 80 degree DP in certain locations in the Midwest, wow ! Interesting website... never heard or seen it before. What do you think of it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Thursday at 04:09 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:09 PM 57 minutes ago, yoda said: Interesting website... never heard or seen it before. What do you think of it? Still exploring it in beta at this time, an account is free. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coolio Posted Thursday at 06:40 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:40 PM Thunderstorms. https://x.com/thetimes/status/1933194649457262720 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Thursday at 07:20 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 07:20 PM 39 minutes ago, coolio said: Thunderstorms. https://x.com/thetimes/status/1933194649457262720 "EXCLUSIVE!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Thursday at 07:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:58 PM 9 hours ago, WxUSAF said: We do best with derecho climatology when we have BIG heat and a stout EML. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted Thursday at 10:11 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:11 PM On 6/11/2025 at 1:09 PM, Kmlwx said: June 2008 is still showing on the 12z updates to the CIPS guidance. Interestingly, if you sort solely by 500mb rather than all fields, it is the top analog with a score of 0.918. While I doubt we realize that high end of a threat - it's definitely got my attention. Worth noting that some of the neighboring domains on there also have June 4-5 2008 showing up as well. Obvious questions remain in regards to day-of factors like instability - but my interest level has risen a bit. The end of the 18z HRRR for Saturday afternoon DOES look a little interesting (yes fantasy range HRRR, I know... plus, verbatim, weak MLLRs and a saturated atmosphere in general limiting DCAPE). ETA: Others CAMs show hints of us being backdoored by a cool front by late Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted yesterday at 02:25 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:25 AM 15 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Lots of things obviously need to align, but that's certainly what we want to see if we're hunting derechos. We would be well within the hot, humid air mass, but also just barely within the faster flow aloft, giving organized convective systems the opportunity to race to the east-southeast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted yesterday at 02:27 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:27 AM Thinking we have a shot at a MRGL on Saturday for a few localized wind events. Lapse rates are lousy, but there will be decent instability and modest deep layer shear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted yesterday at 12:54 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 12:54 PM The NCAR AI convective page is highlighting some impressive severe potential next Thursday...honestly very impressed with how robust it is this far out...(link below) https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 01:13 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:13 PM 19 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The NCAR AI convective page is highlighting some impressive severe potential next Thursday...honestly very impressed with how robust it is this far out...(link below) https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ 45%... impressive indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted yesterday at 01:14 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:14 PM Just now, yoda said: 45%... impressive indeed From watching this tool this spring so far - it seems like it way overdoes things - I'm not even sure it works on the same percentages as SPC...so take those maps with a grain (or a handful) of salt. I've been using it more of a "first look" at which days to look at closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted yesterday at 02:05 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:05 PM 11 hours ago, high risk said: Lots of things obviously need to align, but that's certainly what we want to see if we're hunting derechos. We would be well within the hot, humid air mass, but also just barely within the faster flow aloft, giving organized convective systems the opportunity to race to the east-southeast. We also need a respectable 500 mb pattern. Looks like the "best" climo is one that features a ridge flexing NW -> SE from Kentucky to Bermuda. Kinda of laying the train tracks for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago FWIW, this is what it looked like just to the N of College Park at 5pm today. It tried for a brief time. Definite supercell with a long inflow band to the E. I had to take this pix through a window. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 2 minutes ago, vortex95 said: FWIW, this is what is looked like just to the N of College Park at 5pm today. It tried for a brief time. Define supercell with a long inflow band to the E. I had to take this pix through a window. Yeah. That cell definitely has a little bit of a supercell appearance on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 18 hours ago Author Share Posted 18 hours ago Cool looking outflow on radar as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Look at these GIF loops from late this aftn. Classic supercell split mirror pair in n-cntrl MD. The left split accelerates and moves N, and the right split moves ESE and is slow-moving. In a more unidirectional environmental flow w/ wind shear, the supercell splits both have an equal chance of surviving. Most of the time tho when there is directional shear present, it is veering w/ height, so that favors the right mover (cyclonic meso), and the left mover (anticyclonic meso) does not last long. Supercells by default split, but often since the right split is so favored so often from the shear profile, the left split never has a chance and is wiped immediately, so you see nothing on radar! And when overall flow is weak/disorganized over an area, the mesoscale takes over, leading to some odd storm motions and evolutions, as we see today. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Thunder in Arlington VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago lash Flood Warning DCC001-MDC031-033-VAC013-059-510-610-140400- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.W.0033.250614T0011Z-250614T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 811 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... District of Columbia... Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Northwestern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... Arlington County in northern Virginia... Northern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Alexandria in northern Virginia... The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... * Until midnight EDT tonight. * At 811 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1.5 to 3 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago On 6/12/2025 at 10:27 PM, high risk said: Thinking we have a shot at a MRGL on Saturday for a few localized wind events. Lapse rates are lousy, but there will be decent instability and modest deep layer shear. Boom! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12 minutes ago, high risk said: Boom! 12z hrrr looks good for us. Less good that I’ll be at the orioles game in the middle of it… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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