2025 Severe Weather General Discussion

[Rhino16]

23 hours ago, high risk said:

The NAM Nest is the gold standard.  The HiresW ARW2 is decent.  HRRR and especially the HiresW FV3 are the worst.  When they both showed the warm front staying south of DC yesterday, I started writing off severe potential up our way. 

Are there any good resources to learn little things like this, or is it all just time, experience, and networking? It feels like there’s still so much to learn. I should practice forecasting while I’m not doing anything.

[high risk]

7 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

Are there any good resources to learn little things like this, or is it all just time, experience, and networking? It feels like there’s still so much to learn. I should practice forecasting while I’m not doing anything.

       Experience, for sure.    I always look at as much available guidance as I can, and when they don't agree, I make mental notes on which ones did well and which didn't.   It's not as tough to keep track of as it sounds.   

       Or you can just cheat and use AI:   

[Kmlwx]

CIPS has casually been showing June 4, 2008 in the analogs (not the top one at all) for the upcoming period. Not giving it much thought for now - but we'll see if we can squeeze some storms out. 

[Kmlwx]

June 2008 is still showing on the 12z updates to the CIPS guidance. Interestingly, if you sort solely by 500mb rather than all fields, it is the top analog with a score of 0.918. While I doubt we realize that high end of a threat - it's definitely got my attention. Worth noting that some of the neighboring domains on there also have June 4-5 2008 showing up as well.

Obvious questions remain in regards to day-of factors like instability - but my interest level has risen a bit.