jewell2188 Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 Glad the watch verified. It was always run of the mill “showers and storms” here today. We fail at snow and generally fail at severe. Wind and dry is always guaranteed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 21 Author Share Posted April 21 Some major damage over the weekend in parts of the area it seems. Saw big branches and debris along I-70 from PA into Maryland. Looks like things will be relatively quiet - maybe a window for some strong storms next Tue or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 If the NAM Nest and HiResW ARW2 are correct, there would be a MRGL and eventually perhaps a SLGT for Saturday along and east of I-95, but they seem to be outliers with their slower timing and higher dew points (driving good instability with modest deep layer shear). Since slow timing and overmoistening are clear biases of both systems, it's unfortunately tough to buy their solution. At this point, I just hope to cash in on some heavier showers Friday evening and overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 25 Author Share Posted April 25 8 hours ago, high risk said: If the NAM Nest and HiResW ARW2 are correct, there would be a MRGL and eventually perhaps a SLGT for Saturday along and east of I-95, but they seem to be outliers with their slower timing and higher dew points (driving good instability with modest deep layer shear). Since slow timing and overmoistening are clear biases of both systems, it's unfortunately tough to buy their solution. At this point, I just hope to cash in on some heavier showers Friday evening and overnight. Other than the storms along the Mason/Dixon line last weekend, it's seemingly been a really, really, really quiet stretch for severe on the east coast. Looks like Tue is going to be focused well to our north and west and it peters out by Wednesday. I'm not sure I'm seeing any appreciable "big signal" to exit the boring period. I've been peaking at the long range stuff and CSU/CIPS/NCAR stuff and don't really see anything on the horizon. Similar to winter, it's possible a smaller event comes into focus once it gets to short range view...but for now we are snoozing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 On 4/24/2025 at 11:17 PM, high risk said: If the NAM Nest and HiResW ARW2 are correct, there would be a MRGL and eventually perhaps a SLGT for Saturday along and east of I-95, but they seem to be outliers with their slower timing and higher dew points (driving good instability with modest deep layer shear). Since slow timing and overmoistening are clear biases of both systems, it's unfortunately tough to buy their solution. At this point, I just hope to cash in on some heavier showers Friday evening and overnight. The slightly slower solution ended up verifying, and we do have a MRGL along and east of I-95 for this afternoon. There is actually some good model agreement that a broken line of thunderstorms will form around 2pm very close to I-95 in Maryland and extend at least a bit south of DC on the Virginia side. Looks like there will be some instability, but deep layer shear looks slightly weaker than it did in earlier progs, so a MRGL seems to be the right call (but a few wind reports are certainly possible, especially further east). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 Token 5% MCD from SPC just now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 2 hours ago, high risk said: The slightly slower solution ended up verifying, and we do have a MRGL along and east of I-95 for this afternoon. There is actually some good model agreement that a broken line of thunderstorms will form around 2pm very close to I-95 in Maryland and extend at least a bit south of DC on the Virginia side. Looks like there will be some instability, but deep layer shear looks slightly weaker than it did in earlier progs, so a MRGL seems to be the right call (but a few wind reports are certainly possible, especially further east). We’re about to get something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 Pretty decent storm... a bit of thunder and lightning but more gusty winds and torrential downpours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We’re about to get something 10 minutes ago, yoda said: Pretty decent storm... a bit of thunder and lightning but more gusty winds and torrential downpours Only had 3 rumbles of thunder, but briefly very heavy rain and a good gust front on the leading edge. Over 0.5” for the weekend! Need about 10-14” before June 21 to be prepped for death heat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Thursday at 04:48 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:48 PM Really nice supercell in western Maryland this afternoon. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Friday at 05:54 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:54 AM 13 hours ago, high risk said: Really nice supercell in western Maryland this afternoon. Yes that was impressive. Cirrus shield extended down into Frederick and the SPC issued a meaoscale discussion for that cell alone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Saturday at 03:44 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 03:44 PM 40% chance of t'storm watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Saturday at 05:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:27 PM Wow! Interesting look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Saturday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:25 PM Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Picture of the Louden storm from around 5 this afternoon. Picture taken at the top of the Herndon Metro parking lot. Repost here since it was severe warned with some definite shape. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Slight Risk today for wind and hail. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 60% chance of a watch from I-64 and points south it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 45 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 60% chance of a watch from I-64 and points south it appears. STW up for most of AKQ CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Hmmm Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 254 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slowly progress eastward across the region through Tuesday, then pull offshore Tuesday night. High pressure will follow briefly for Wednesday. A potent cold front is expected to move southeast from the eastern Great Lakes to and across the Mid-Atlantic late in the week. High pressure will likely follow through the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Isolated severe t-storms will be possible over the next couple of hours with current scattered activity across the area. However, it appears the main severe wx potential over the next 12 hours will be tied to the line of convection forming near Raleigh NC. Shortwave-trough lifting from southwest VA into western VA and low-level convergence are expected to encourage more widespread convection early this evening. Latest HREF fields suggest a broken to solid line of thunderstorms forming from near Frederick MD south to Fredericksburg. Given cooling aloft and some rotation already seen on radar, a tornado and hail threat exist, especially given that shear profiles are expected to strengthen. The main window for severe wx potential looks to be between 21Z-02Z. Convection is expected to weaken or lift north into Pennsylvania after 02Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Watch potentially coming soon Mesoscale Discussion 0701 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0429 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 052129Z - 052330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving north out of southeast Virginia will migrate into a buoyant air mass in place across the DelMarVa region. Re-intensification is expected and may result in an uptick in the severe hail/wind threat. Watch issuance is being considered to address this potential. DISCUSSION...A mix of semi-discrete thunderstorms and weakly organized linear segments continues to migrate north out of southeast VA. While a few stronger cores persist, much of the convection currently appears weak/disorganized based on GOES IR imagery and MRMS vertical ice/echo top data. However, these storms are moving into an environment characterized by better buoyancy (MLCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg) that is in place across the DelMarVa region. Consequently, some uptick in intensity is anticipated within the next 1-2 hours. Deep-layer wind shear sampled by regional VWPs is fairly modest - around 20-25 knots of 0-6 km BWD. However, this should be sufficient for a few organized cells and linear segments capable of producing damaging winds and 1.0 to 1.5 inch hail. ..Moore/Smith.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 37687760 38617858 39057882 39307881 39677865 39997827 40077798 40057760 39837722 39257636 38867603 38407592 38117592 37777606 37557624 37357656 37357685 37467726 37687760 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Watch up until midnight URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 228 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Southern Pennsylvania Northern and Eastern Virginia Eastern Panhandle West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday night from 600 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered linear clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop and move northward into the Watch area this evening. A few of the stronger cellular storms will pose a risk for large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter). A transient supercell or two is possible in addition to a couple of line segments. Strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with these storms, but a brief tornado is possible mainly early this evening with this activity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Hagerstown MD to 25 miles southwest of Patuxent River MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 40/20 on both hail and wind probs... 20 on 2 or more tornadoes probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just reported Nickel size hail in the cell that popped up basically over my house in Stafford, near Hartwood, VA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I picked up a bunch of veggie plants today and was going to put them in this evening, but I’ll wait a day and keep them safe under the patio table. In other words, I’m jinxing myself out of any thunderstorms tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: Just reported Nickel size hail in the cell that popped up basically over my house in Stafford, near Hartwood, VA. Just got warned BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 617 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Stafford County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Southern Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 645 PM EDT. * At 616 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of Stafford, moving north at 15 mph. HAZARD...Quarter size hail. SOURCE...A trained weather spotter observed quarter size hail in Glendie. IMPACT...Some hail damage to agriculture is expected. * Locations impacted include... Heflin, Ruby, Somerville, and Roseville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3841 7748 3840 7756 3854 7767 3858 7751 TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 158DEG 15KT 3842 7754 HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Looks like another sneaky severe evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted 57 minutes ago Share Posted 57 minutes ago 10 minutes ago, yoda said: Just got warned BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 617 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Stafford County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Southern Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 645 PM EDT. * At 616 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of Stafford, moving north at 15 mph. HAZARD...Quarter size hail. SOURCE...A trained weather spotter observed quarter size hail in Glendie. IMPACT...Some hail damage to agriculture is expected. * Locations impacted include... Heflin, Ruby, Somerville, and Roseville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3841 7748 3840 7756 3854 7767 3858 7751 TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 158DEG 15KT 3842 7754 HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH That cell turned out to be wicked, turned into Quarter size hail. Lots of leaves down and a gust to 47 mph. Luckily it has moved North now and seems as if the vehicles didn’t get any damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted 29 minutes ago Share Posted 29 minutes ago not only severe, but WPC says flooding could be a concern too: Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0227 (Issued at 635 PM EDT Mon May 05 2025 ) MPD Selection Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0227 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 635 PM EDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern VA into the DMV and far eastern WV Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 052235Z - 060300Z Summary...Training convection will be capable of hourly totals of 1-3" with short-term (3-hr) totals as high as 2-4". Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible (and may be locally significant in sensitive urban/mountainous terrain). Discussion...Radar and GOES-East satellite imagery indicate the proliferation of convection across portions of eastern VA/NC over the past several hours, moving fairly rapidly (~25 kts) towards the N-NE within nearly unidirectional flow on the eastern periphery of a large, deep layer (850-200 mb) closed low centered over IL/IN/KY. The mesoscale environment in the vicinity and downstream of the aforementioned convection is characterized by SBCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, PWATs of 0.8-1.3" (between the 75th and 90th percentile, per IAD sounding climatology), and deep layer (0-6km shear) of 20-40 kts (per 22z SPC SFCOA analysis). The strongest cells have been capable of impressive instantaneous rainfall rates of 3-5"/hr (per MRMS estimates), which has resulted in estimated hourly rainfall totals of up to 2.5" (where deeper convective cells have been able to occasionally train, mainly to the east of I-95 in eastern VA). Recent hi-res CAMs have not handled the evolution of convection particularly well, and recent observational trends (including continued overshooting/cooling cloud tops via GOES-East imagery) suggest that localized hourly totals of 1-3" will continue to manifest farther north (into the more sensitive DMV region) with storm propagation (as a pool of 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE remains untapped). While both of the hourly updating CAMs (HRRR/RRFS) are handling the convection poorly, the 18z HREF suite does still give a good idea of the potential for excessive rainfall through 03z (with 40-km neighborhood probabilities for 2" and 3" exceedance of 20-30% and ~10%, respectively). Given locally sensitive terrain (per FFGs as low as 0.75-1.50" and 1.50-2.50" for 1-hr and 3-hr periods, respectively) over urbanized terrain along and near I-95 and over portions of the Appalachians in the vicinity of northern VA, western MD, and far eastern WV, isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible (and may be locally significant, should 2-4" totals occur over the most sensitive localities). Churchill ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39827743 39597667 39037647 37767669 36447699 36217739 36777738 37437742 38277778 39617833 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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