jewell2188 Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 Glad the watch verified. It was always run of the mill “showers and storms” here today. We fail at snow and generally fail at severe. Wind and dry is always guaranteed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 21 Author Share Posted April 21 Some major damage over the weekend in parts of the area it seems. Saw big branches and debris along I-70 from PA into Maryland. Looks like things will be relatively quiet - maybe a window for some strong storms next Tue or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 If the NAM Nest and HiResW ARW2 are correct, there would be a MRGL and eventually perhaps a SLGT for Saturday along and east of I-95, but they seem to be outliers with their slower timing and higher dew points (driving good instability with modest deep layer shear). Since slow timing and overmoistening are clear biases of both systems, it's unfortunately tough to buy their solution. At this point, I just hope to cash in on some heavier showers Friday evening and overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 25 Author Share Posted April 25 8 hours ago, high risk said: If the NAM Nest and HiResW ARW2 are correct, there would be a MRGL and eventually perhaps a SLGT for Saturday along and east of I-95, but they seem to be outliers with their slower timing and higher dew points (driving good instability with modest deep layer shear). Since slow timing and overmoistening are clear biases of both systems, it's unfortunately tough to buy their solution. At this point, I just hope to cash in on some heavier showers Friday evening and overnight. Other than the storms along the Mason/Dixon line last weekend, it's seemingly been a really, really, really quiet stretch for severe on the east coast. Looks like Tue is going to be focused well to our north and west and it peters out by Wednesday. I'm not sure I'm seeing any appreciable "big signal" to exit the boring period. I've been peaking at the long range stuff and CSU/CIPS/NCAR stuff and don't really see anything on the horizon. Similar to winter, it's possible a smaller event comes into focus once it gets to short range view...but for now we are snoozing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 On 4/24/2025 at 11:17 PM, high risk said: If the NAM Nest and HiResW ARW2 are correct, there would be a MRGL and eventually perhaps a SLGT for Saturday along and east of I-95, but they seem to be outliers with their slower timing and higher dew points (driving good instability with modest deep layer shear). Since slow timing and overmoistening are clear biases of both systems, it's unfortunately tough to buy their solution. At this point, I just hope to cash in on some heavier showers Friday evening and overnight. The slightly slower solution ended up verifying, and we do have a MRGL along and east of I-95 for this afternoon. There is actually some good model agreement that a broken line of thunderstorms will form around 2pm very close to I-95 in Maryland and extend at least a bit south of DC on the Virginia side. Looks like there will be some instability, but deep layer shear looks slightly weaker than it did in earlier progs, so a MRGL seems to be the right call (but a few wind reports are certainly possible, especially further east). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 Token 5% MCD from SPC just now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 2 hours ago, high risk said: The slightly slower solution ended up verifying, and we do have a MRGL along and east of I-95 for this afternoon. There is actually some good model agreement that a broken line of thunderstorms will form around 2pm very close to I-95 in Maryland and extend at least a bit south of DC on the Virginia side. Looks like there will be some instability, but deep layer shear looks slightly weaker than it did in earlier progs, so a MRGL seems to be the right call (but a few wind reports are certainly possible, especially further east). We’re about to get something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 Pretty decent storm... a bit of thunder and lightning but more gusty winds and torrential downpours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We’re about to get something 10 minutes ago, yoda said: Pretty decent storm... a bit of thunder and lightning but more gusty winds and torrential downpours Only had 3 rumbles of thunder, but briefly very heavy rain and a good gust front on the leading edge. Over 0.5” for the weekend! Need about 10-14” before June 21 to be prepped for death heat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Thursday at 08:48 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:48 PM Really nice supercell in western Maryland this afternoon. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Friday at 09:54 AM Share Posted Friday at 09:54 AM 13 hours ago, high risk said: Really nice supercell in western Maryland this afternoon. Yes that was impressive. Cirrus shield extended down into Frederick and the SPC issued a meaoscale discussion for that cell alone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Saturday at 07:44 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 07:44 PM 40% chance of t'storm watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Saturday at 09:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:27 PM Wow! Interesting look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted yesterday at 12:25 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:25 AM Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Picture of the Louden storm from around 5 this afternoon. Picture taken at the top of the Herndon Metro parking lot. Repost here since it was severe warned with some definite shape. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Slight Risk today for wind and hail. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 60% chance of a watch from I-64 and points south it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 45 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 60% chance of a watch from I-64 and points south it appears. STW up for most of AKQ CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Hmmm Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 254 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slowly progress eastward across the region through Tuesday, then pull offshore Tuesday night. High pressure will follow briefly for Wednesday. A potent cold front is expected to move southeast from the eastern Great Lakes to and across the Mid-Atlantic late in the week. High pressure will likely follow through the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Isolated severe t-storms will be possible over the next couple of hours with current scattered activity across the area. However, it appears the main severe wx potential over the next 12 hours will be tied to the line of convection forming near Raleigh NC. Shortwave-trough lifting from southwest VA into western VA and low-level convergence are expected to encourage more widespread convection early this evening. Latest HREF fields suggest a broken to solid line of thunderstorms forming from near Frederick MD south to Fredericksburg. Given cooling aloft and some rotation already seen on radar, a tornado and hail threat exist, especially given that shear profiles are expected to strengthen. The main window for severe wx potential looks to be between 21Z-02Z. Convection is expected to weaken or lift north into Pennsylvania after 02Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now