eduggs Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 25 minutes ago, wdrag said: I've seen some comments downplaying the HRRR. 18z vsn nearly identical to the 12z. I think we have to think confluence zone enhancement-band. I see BGM NWS just issued an inch higher terrain. I wont say what will happen but I dont even think our NWS offices will know at 3AM tomorrow when final day products are issued, since very few ground truth reports at 2-3A. The radar should be telling. Maybe I'll be wrong but I doubt if the HRRR is going to miss by more than inch or at worst 2. It should be slippery as outlined in the mid morning post. Pretty good %H Vort advection toward morning in EPA with decent 8H FGEN and lift in sw flow aloft. A warm frontal wave. It's over before you can say 9AM. I'm with you. I think there will be a decent swath of accumulating snow overnight tonight. I just personally think the 12z HRRR was too "wet" into the cold/dry air and a little too far north with the axis. It also keeps measurable precipitation going further east into NYS and CT. That might be suspect based on other guidance drying things out quicker. The 18z is a little drier and maybe a hair south of 12z. I think it has been incrementally shifting towards model consensus. The 18z RRFS also looks a touch drier and more reasonable to me. The GFS and CMC have likely been too far south and late to correct. The best bet for accumulating snows looks to be in PA right now. But we've seen cases before where banding unexpectedly extended accumulating snows eastward as a shortwave decayed into the residual cold of a longwave trof. The radar will be interesting late tonight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 18 Share Posted November 18 I updated my 3PM comment with an apology explanation of ground truth knowledge aforehand of a product issuance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Flurries have started in Wantage NJ... definitely a HRRR bust from yesterdays 12 and 18z modeling but lets see what the finals are. Sleet on parts of Long Island now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 19 Author Share Posted November 19 2 hours ago, wdrag said: Flurries have started in Wantage NJ... definitely a HRRR bust from yesterdays 12 and 18z modeling but lets see what the finals are. Sleet on parts of Long Island now. Agreed, just some flurries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Accumulations on grass/tree limbs in Chester, NJ before the flip to rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 will very briefly explain my laziness via process and the F forecast around 945A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 19 Share Posted November 19 Processes: Cannot circumvent checklists... pilots don't and they fly us successfully. I got a little lazy...circumvented processes. Saw the trend in HRRR/RAP/RRFSA prior to 14z/18 yesterday, accepted HRRR resulting in an F forecast. Global CMCE an EPS ensembles (GEFS, SREF and SPC HREF snowfall terrible) had the axis right which was near I80 but amounts below 2" on 10-1. That should have cautioned me on the 12z/18 verbatim HRRR post. ANDDDD when we're on the gradient edge of qpf, caution flag. I've grown confident in the ECAI but it failed miserably on the north fringe this morning and the EC OP through 00z/19 was lacking. 12z and 18Z/18 HRRR were very similar then I saw the 00z/19 HRRR drop back down to I80--wasnt sure it would hold there. It did. Bottom line: Follow processes ALWAYS inclusive of merging ensembles and being careful on the gradient edge. I sure hope to remember this lesson. Wantage Trace flurries and qpf... basically nil. Attached CoCoRaHs snowfall. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted yesterday at 04:15 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:15 PM Welp...the snow weenies are back on the board. Happy Thanksgiving one and all! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted yesterday at 04:42 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:42 PM Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Christmas may come early for us interior peeps next week 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted yesterday at 05:14 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:14 PM 56 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Welp...the snow weenies are back on the board. Happy Thanksgiving one and all! And Rob, I’m thankful for them and even for forky. May we all be blessed, as always …. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted yesterday at 07:27 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 07:27 PM 8 hours ago, rclab said: And Rob, I’m thankful for them and even for forky. May we all be blessed, as always …. People take life, and certainly their snowfall, way too serious and thus get butthurt when Forky comes in to stir the pot or lay down some facts. I love the cool and cold weather and hate the dews but I don't hate Forky and the other "warmnistas" because if one looks objectively at their posts they are more right than wrong IMO. Have a great Thanksgiving Rich and thanks for visiting the hinterlands thread LOL. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago I hope everyone had a nice time celebrating today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted 21 hours ago Author Share Posted 21 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I hope everyone had a nice time celebrating today Who's this? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 13 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I hope everyone had a nice time celebrating today A great day indeed, hopefully you and yours had a wonderful day too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Liking where I sit here with this one, granted it remains 96 hours out as of now. and with that, another winter in the trenches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago As I’m sitting here watching college football listening to my father-in-law repeat whatever the commenters say I’m reminded of last year when he was here around Christmas…and used my snow board as a serving tray for the wildlife place to dump leftover food on…yeah, the wife had to talk to him about that. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Gate crashing here because this might be the more interesting thread over the next week. I'm in the Catskills on Wednesday, so there's that. Of course if I'm placing my bet on the LHV, that could be the kiss of death so I am apologizing in advance. Regardless of outcome, it looks like December will keep our attention. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted 34 minutes ago Author Share Posted 34 minutes ago 36 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Gate crashing here because this might be the more interesting thread over the next week. I'm in the Catskills on Wednesday, so there's that. Of course if I'm placing my bet on the LHV, that could be the kiss of death so I am apologizing in advance. Regardless of outcome, it looks like December will keep our attention. Hopefully it’s interesting. 2020, as well as other December’s, jaded me so much that it’s hard to get my hopes up, especially if we torch right before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted 26 minutes ago Share Posted 26 minutes ago 2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: As I’m sitting here watching college football listening to my father-in-law repeat whatever the commenters say I’m reminded of last year when he was here around Christmas…and used my snow board as a serving tray for the wildlife place to dump leftover food on…yeah, the wife had to talk to him about that. Hey, we got a white Christmas out of it, snow on Christmas Eve, and subzero lows two days before Christmas. If that's what it takes, encourage him to do the same this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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