Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[WestCentrlVA]

6z gfs showing a little bit of everything for that period. It will be interesting to see how this evolves or not. 

[BooneWX]

This is our only way out in the near future and it’s starting to show in the LR: east based NAO starts trending west, get a 50/50 low in the right spot and send our death ridge closer to the Rockies and see what we can do. We’re going to have to bully the Pacific pattern, which I’m not sure is possible, but that’s what it’s going to take. Positive steps overnight and it appears the PNA gets a lot closer to neutral by the end of the month. 

[Tullioz]

14 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

A trace means essentially at least one snowflake or sleet pellet was observed. That’s it, not measurable. You could have 100 TR events and it wouldn’t equate to measurable snow. So if those maps show 3 TR events for your backyard you still haven’t seen measurable. 

I never said otherwise; in fact, when replying to a member who said, "I guess snow falling from the sky without accumulating is considered measurable nowadays," I replied with, "Measurable snow is considered .1" or more." The comment I was addressing was "not even a single trace, much less multiple instances" had occurred in the Hickory/Catawba County area. I replied to that comment saying that there had been multiple reports on social media of snow falling on different dates, which confirms that at least a trace of snow had fallen on more than one occasion so far this winter. I think most would agree that seeing snow falling on three or four separate occasions at any given location in NC outside of the mountains before mid-December, even if it melts on contact, is impressive.

[GaWx]

8 hours ago, WestCentrlVA said:

Not saying it's right but the 0z euro run would make many happy if it actually happened. Long duration event for sure. 

 This Euro storm reminds me of another at 9-10 days out released on 1/12/25 that caused social media to get way out of control and even caused me to be texted in the middle of the night from an Atlanta friend due to his Facebook feed from this as if it were credible:

 

 But this did turn out to be when the historic Gulf coast/deep SE winter storm occurred (1/21-22/2025).

[olafminesaw]

16 minutes ago, Tullioz said:

I never said otherwise; in fact, when replying to a member who said, "I guess snow falling from the sky without accumulating is considered measurable nowadays," I replied with, "Measurable snow is considered .1" or more." The comment I was addressing was "not even a single trace, much less multiple instances" had occurred in the Hickory/Catawba County area. I replied to that comment saying that there had been multiple reports on social media of snow falling on different dates, which confirms that at least a trace of snow had fallen on more than one occasion so far this winter. I think most would agree that seeing snow falling on three or four separate occasions at any given location in NC outside of the mountains before mid-December, even if it melts on contact, is impressive.

It really just sounds like an argument over if the glass is half full or half empty. I choose to appreciate the flakes we got even though it's frustrating to have been so close to more significant accumulation 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, Tullioz said:

I never said otherwise; in fact, when replying to a member who said, "I guess snow falling from the sky without accumulating is considered measurable nowadays," I replied with, "Measurable snow is considered .1" or more." The comment I was addressing was "not even a single trace, much less multiple instances" had occurred in the Hickory/Catawba County area. I replied to that comment saying that there had been multiple reports on social media of snow falling on different dates, which confirms that at least a trace of snow had fallen on more than one occasion so far this winter. I think most would agree that seeing snow falling on three or four separate occasions at any given location in NC outside of the mountains before mid-December, even if it melts on contact, is impressive.

I’m the melted on contact guy and I’m man enough to apologize. I had always considered a trace measurable but happily proven wrong. I’ve had token flakes a few times and I hope you didn’t perceive my initial comment as an attack on you. I’m admittedly not a fan of Webb and let my bias pour through. 

[BornAgain13]

Trends last night and this morning are positive! Let's keep it rolling!

[BornAgain13]

Wouldn't be surprised if we continue to see on and off fantasy runs for around this period... 

[strongwxnc]

4 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’m the melted on contact guy and I’m man enough to apologize. I had always considered a trace measurable but happily proven wrong. I’ve had token flakes a few times and I hope you didn’t perceive my initial comment as an attack on you. I’m admittedly not a fan of Webb and let my bias pour through. 

To me (not NWS) a trace is white on the grass. In the air is just a tease. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, Tullioz said:

I never said otherwise; in fact, when replying to a member who said, "I guess snow falling from the sky without accumulating is considered measurable nowadays," I replied with, "Measurable snow is considered .1" or more." The comment I was addressing was "not even a single trace, much less multiple instances" had occurred in the Hickory/Catawba County area. I replied to that comment saying that there had been multiple reports on social media of snow falling on different dates, which confirms that at least a trace of snow had fallen on more than one occasion so far this winter. I think most would agree that seeing snow falling on three or four separate occasions at any given location in NC outside of the mountains before mid-December, even if it melts on contact, is impressive.

Yea I wasn’t speaking to you, your post was just last in line for the other ones arguing about measurable snow. People saying the maps were wrong bc they hadn’t had any measurable and were showing up as a TR was really who it was directed to. Rather be arguing over 6 to 8 in or whether one spot hits blizzard criteria, not who has picked up 0.10” and who hasn’t 

[BooneWX]

16 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

To me (not NWS) a trace is white on the grass. In the air is just a tease. 

I 100% agree. I’ve always considered a trace measurable and shocked that it’s not. So maybe I now have beef with the NWS interpretation of a trace. But I’ve had a long standing frustration with the NWS on their PR front. They need to hire a few PR firms to assist in overhauling their public facing language. My biggest gripe: “Marginal, slight, moderate, high, extreme.”

[tarheelwx]

To me, it’s a trace of it falls.  Saying it has to be white on the grass would be like saying you need at least something in the gauge for rain.  I’ve just looked at a trace as almost nothing, but at least something fell.  
TW

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Capital Weather Gang:

[wncsnow]

47 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Capital Weather Gang:

But look how fast its going back to neutral. EPS shows this as well and had a quick cool (not even cold) shot then back to average or above by the end of the period. 

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

But look how fast its going back to neutral. EPS shows this as well and had a quick cool (not even cold) shot then back to average or above by the end of the period. 

Meanwhile PNA looks to stay negative the entire month, with some signs of another deep tank headed into January 

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Meanwhile PNA looks to stay negative the entire month, with some signs of another deep tank headed into January 

Exactly. The only thing that gives me a little hope is the cold air in Canada. If that leaves or moves, we are in big trouble. 

[Met1985]

Taking indicies at face value two weeks out is pretty extreme if I do say. Honestly I'd look for something at the beginning of the new year. The PNA does need to change though.  Nice to see Canada in the freezer though.  Our cold air source will be there.

[NorthHillsWx]

25 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Taking indicies at face value two weeks out is pretty extreme if I do say. Honestly I'd look for something at the beginning of the new year. The PNA does need to change though.  Nice to see Canada in the freezer though.  Our cold air source will be there.

MJO delivering but pacific won’t let us take advantage. Really wish La Niña would fade a little earlier, maybe we could break this patten quicker