Upstate Tiger Posted Monday at 08:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:20 PM 26 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Positive steps today on the models. It's not like we aren't seeing Positive trends here. Especially when considering the MJO is moving in the right direction. Yeah this current weather sucks but hey the colds coming. Agree. Haven't had a chance to look at anything but the 12Z GFS today but the last few panels on the long range look pretty good to me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Monday at 08:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:36 PM Very much positive trends today across the board. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Monday at 09:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:55 PM Volatility 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted Monday at 10:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:03 PM Borrowed this from @Carvers Gap. This is the most recent run of the Euro control run for the month of December. Not a bad look at all. Still will be a lot of back and forth but positive. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted Monday at 10:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:44 PM On 11/23/2025 at 2:08 PM, suzook said: I'll agree with Jan and Feb, but March is a stretch in my area. We can all dream though. It's a stretch here too 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted yesterday at 01:14 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:14 AM The SER centered over the western gulf coast and that pool of cold air in eastern Canada is the ticket. That’s how you get some mischief east of the apps. This look screams CAD opportunities. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted yesterday at 01:23 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:23 PM Will always does great work. He’s one of the few I’ll listen to for LR updates. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted yesterday at 01:36 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:36 PM What a torch lol. Canadian with its first ice doomsday clown map of the season. . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted yesterday at 01:37 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:37 PM Morning update: Colder. Where? Every single ensemble. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 1 hour ago, BooneWX said: Morning update: Colder. Where? Every single ensemble. Its coming! ❄️ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago It’s the Icon but it damn near delivers next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 38 minutes ago, BooneWX said: It’s the Icon but it damn near delivers next week Look at the GFS! Its close! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago December 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago It must be admitted that next week's torch seems to be becoming muted as it enters the medium range. Here's hoping it continues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 5 hours ago, BooneWX said: Will always does great work. He’s one of the few I’ll listen to for LR updates. . The little bit of SER tends to lead me to believe that DC to New England is favored with some CAD potential for the carolinas 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago WRAL's winter outlook says draw the shades and try again the following year lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago Frigid euro ens. Just wall to wall cold. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago GEM is a Major ICE Storm next Week taken verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: GEM is a Major ICE Storm next Week taken verbatim. Another year another Winter! Let’s cash in this go! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 18 hours ago Author Share Posted 18 hours ago Hopium is back! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Shades of last winter. We saw this time and time again where models torched at range, only to come in colder and colder at 0 hour. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted 15 hours ago Author Share Posted 15 hours ago 3 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Shades of last winter. We saw this time and time again where models torched at range, only to come in colder and colder at 0 hour. Let's hope we get a better end result for foothills areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 7 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Let's hope we get a better end result for foothills areas Time will tell. At some point our crew gets to eat too. I still have a good feeling about next month. If we repeat the upcoming pattern later in winter, I won’t be as bullish for CAD regions because it would favor too much suppression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 11 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Shades of last winter. We saw this time and time again where models torched at range, only to come in colder and colder at 0 hour. It seems like GFS has been depicting year-round longrange torch exaggeration for about two years now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said: It seems like GFS has been depicting year-round longrange torch exaggeration for about two years now. I stand by my statements that the GFS should get zero consideration in anything going forward. It’s not useful even from a 500 mb level in the medium range anymore. This summer was an all-time abysmal performance with the tropics and chasing extreme warmth that only happened once. With that being said, it’s a 2 in a room of 4s. I’m not bragging a bit on the other models. Even the AIFS which sniffed out the cold Dec start has endured a windshield wiper effect. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 8 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: December 3 Cool but 7 days out. Maybe something to keep track of. I don't see a VA snow in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Im not surprised at all with the volatility from basically all the models. We had an SSW or at least a significant weakening of the PV. We also have the MJO doing its thing and it's a good thing at that. The models have had a really tough time in the mid-range this season. A lot going on in the atmospheric river. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Hopium is strong in here, and I’m here for it! If anything December looks to feature some cold in the east and the southern stream looks to become active. Volatile seems like a good word 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 15 minutes ago Share Posted 15 minutes ago The only fly in the ointment this morning is the MJO. It still gets to 8, but not until we have an obnoxious loop through 7 and it heads for the COD at the timeframe I was hoping it would steer into 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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