Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[olafminesaw]

48 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The fall foliage here is headed to a significantly earlier peak than average. This is the earliest I can recall in many years! Recent years have peaked in the last week of Nov or Dec.

 Anyone else have a fall leaf report?

Just past peak in the triad, about a week early I think. The really weird thing is that my maple tree and oak trees are dropping about on the same schedule, usually the maple tree is a couple weeks earlier.

[yotaman]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The fall foliage here is headed to a significantly earlier peak than average. This is the earliest I can recall in many years! Recent years have peaked in the last week of Nov or Dec.

 Anyone else have a fall leaf report?

My maples are dropping their leaves quickly while other trees are still holding onto the green. Seems like only maples right now.

[suzook]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The fall foliage here is headed to a significantly earlier peak than average. This is the earliest I can recall in many years! Recent years have peaked in the last week of Nov or Dec.

 Anyone else have a fall leaf report?

My yard looked like this December 1st last year. We are 3 weeks ahead this year.

[suzook]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The fall foliage here is headed to a significantly earlier peak than average. This is the earliest I can recall in many years! Recent years have peaked in the last week of Nov or Dec.

 Anyone else have a fall leaf report?

I do think the drought has accelerated the leaf change in addition to the cooler fall so far. My Bermuda grass has gone dormant earlier too

[eyewall]

Here in Raleigh we kind of have a double peak with different trees. We just had the peak of the first wave I think:







 

[ncjoaquin]

52 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Here in Raleigh we kind of have a double peak with different trees. We just had the peak of the first wave I think:







 

Great pictures! 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Here in Raleigh we kind of have a double peak with different trees. We just had the peak of the first wave I think:







 

Phenomenal 

[GaWx]

Here are the progs for Nov 11th lows from the latest ICON/CMC/Euro/GFS/UKMET

1. GA
-SAV: 29/31/34/34/35
-NE ATL (Chamblee): 25/23/29/34/32

2. SC
-GSP: 23/21/29/27/29
-CAE: 28/32/33/32/34

3. NC
-CLT: 25/30/31/29/32
-RDU: 28/34/32/32/35

—————————
Average for each model for the 6 cities:

ICON: 26.3
CMC: 28.5
Euro: 31.3
GFS: 31.3
UKMET: 32.6

Any guesses for:
1. Which model for the 6 cities averaged out will do best?

2. Which model for the 6 cities averaged out will do worst?
———————

My guesses:
1. Best: Euro/GFS (tie)
2. Worst: ICON

Edit: I’m guessing that the average low for these 6 cities will be 30.5F.

[eyewall]

Thank you all. I took some more this morning as it is really popping in a few other nearby places in town too.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

I’ll take it in early November

[eyewall]

Today clearly shows we are just about at peak around here. There may be a secondary peak as additional trees turn which I have seen here before but this is some of the better color we have had in a few years.

[olafminesaw]

Euro back to some light snow Monday night

[WinstonSalemArlington]

European weekly upper level patterns favor colder than normal 12/5, 12/12, and 12/19 EIA weeks for U.S.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Be nice if that came along and hooked up with an Arctic Front

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Euro says the ends frigid 

[NC_hailstorm]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Strong vort coming over Sun/Mon,be interesting if some  flurries can break out over the piedmont.

[Jimbo!]

These long range peeks make me very glad our recent renovations included new French doors and others plus the gas logs. Our formerly super drafty home is much better but still two doors to go. The new smart thermostat and room sensors too, woo boy bring on the cold. My old self would love some 76/77 77/78 style winters for my kids to see lol.


.

[NC_hailstorm]

GSP

. If the closed low sags far
enough south that it cross the area on Monday, don`t be surprised
to see a few snow flurries break containment east of the mountains,
with flurries possible across the foothills and Piedmont Monday
evening. The chance is low, but definitely nonzero.