Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[wncsnow]

Poor Outer Banks gonna get raked again..

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Poor Outer Banks gonna get raked again..

 Yeah, unfortunately just about all of the major operational model runs now have this nor’easter heavily influencing the wx from E NC through the Mid-Atlantic states by late this weekend. The main holdout, the  GFS, finally joined in with its 0Z run. Let’s see whether or not they maintain it on future runs. It’s looking bleak right now.

[BooneWX]

The EF-5 drought has been broken.


.

[NorthHillsWx]

3 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Poor Outer Banks gonna get raked again..

With the nonstop NE fetch and offshore hurricanes it’s been the worst case scenario unfortunately. That’s even without a direct tropical landfall in the area. There hasn’t been a single week going back to July without a significant NE blow I cannot ever remember another summer like this on the OBX

[GaWx]

 The Euro is still jumping around quite a bit with the track. The 12Z has it much further SSW with it never getting close to the Mid-Atlantic states:

 

From that position, it weakens as it moves WSW and then dies as the center reaches far S SC. This track is an outlier.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Whatever it does I hope it’s close enough to throw some rain back into the piedmont. Drought conditions have rapidly developed

[olafminesaw]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Whatever it does I hope it’s close enough to throw some rain back into the piedmont. Drought conditions have rapidly developed

Alas seems pretty paltry West of I95

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Longrange changes afoot, or a mirage?

[Upstate Tiger]

Starting to see Canada fill up with colder air after mid-month and even some lake effect on the ops models.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BooneWX]

3 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Starting to see Canada fill up with colder air after mid-month and even some lake effect on the ops models.

I don’t have the link but I saw a post yesterday showing year over year trends in snowpack over Siberia and northern Canada. It appears it’s a bit better than normal. I put little stock in enso and upper atmospheric patterns until we get closer to climo but that’s one early indicator I’ve always believed in. We’ve struggled the past few years with cold snaps modifying too much before they make it this far. Every little bit of sea ice and snowpack in the great north will help. 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

I don’t have the link but I saw a post yesterday showing year over year trends in snowpack over Siberia and northern Canada. It appears it’s a bit better than normal. I put little stock in enso and upper atmospheric patterns until we get closer to climo but that’s one early indicator I’ve always believed in. We’ve struggled the past few years with cold snaps modifying too much before they make it this far. Every little bit of sea ice and snowpack in the great north will help. 

https://published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.html

"Siberian snow cover got off to a quick start in September and that has continued into October (see Figure ii), however it seems to me the rapid advance of late September has slowed a bit in October. In fact in a bit f an unusual twist the surface temperatures have been more impressive this month (as in cold) than the snow cover, typically it is the reversed. Above normal Siberian snow cover extent (SCE) favors a weak polar vortex this winter and more widespread severe winter weather across the NH"

[GaWx]

A 10.4 ft high tide is being forecasted for Ft. Pulaski for late Friday morning:

 That would be tied for the 7th highest tide on record at Ft. Pulaski going back ~90 years, tied with the 8/11/1940 hurricane. It would be only barely lower than the highest tide on record there not associated with a TC, which is the 10.45’ of 11/7/2021!

  The following is from this morning’s updated KCHS discussion:

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
  
STRONG NE WINDS RESULTING FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND   
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW TIDAL DEPARTURES TO   
INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. ASTRONOMICAL   
TIDE VALUES ARE ALREADY ELEVATED OWING TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND   
PERIGEE, WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEPARTURES WILL RESULT IN   
COASTAL FLOODING WITH EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE   
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRING, THE POSITION OF   
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL HIGHLY INFLUENCE THE TIDAL   
DEPARTURE.  
  
CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE: THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY   
THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HIT MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING   
(>8 FT MLLW). A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON   
AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COASTAL   
FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY THROUGH   
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.   
  
FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGE: THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH   
SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING (10   
TO 10.5 FT MLLW). A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM   
BEAUFORT COUNTY, SC SOUTHWARD TO MCINTOSH COUNTY, GA FROM 8 AM THIS   
MORNING UNTIL NOON TODAY. 

[wncsnow]

Basically no rain west of 95 the next 15 days according to the Euro. This years fire season is going to be a doozy in the mountains...still lots of fuel left from Helene and it's been dry since August. 

[NorthHillsWx]

My location has received less than 1” over the last 40 days and almost all of that came from 1 system. We have received measurable rain just 3 of the last 40 days and central NC is now in moderate-severe drought 

[wncsnow]

Todays Op euro was the warmest run in a while and showed widespread 80s for many days throughout the next 2 weeks.