Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[wncsnow]

Poor Outer Banks gonna get raked again..

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Poor Outer Banks gonna get raked again..

 Yeah, unfortunately just about all of the major operational model runs now have this nor’easter heavily influencing the wx from E NC through the Mid-Atlantic states by late this weekend. The main holdout, the  GFS, finally joined in with its 0Z run. Let’s see whether or not they maintain it on future runs. It’s looking bleak right now.

[BooneWX]

The EF-5 drought has been broken.


.

[NorthHillsWx]

3 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Poor Outer Banks gonna get raked again..

With the nonstop NE fetch and offshore hurricanes it’s been the worst case scenario unfortunately. That’s even without a direct tropical landfall in the area. There hasn’t been a single week going back to July without a significant NE blow I cannot ever remember another summer like this on the OBX

[GaWx]

 The Euro is still jumping around quite a bit with the track. The 12Z has it much further SSW with it never getting close to the Mid-Atlantic states:

 

From that position, it weakens as it moves WSW and then dies as the center reaches far S SC. This track is an outlier.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Whatever it does I hope it’s close enough to throw some rain back into the piedmont. Drought conditions have rapidly developed

[olafminesaw]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Whatever it does I hope it’s close enough to throw some rain back into the piedmont. Drought conditions have rapidly developed

Alas seems pretty paltry West of I95

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Longrange changes afoot, or a mirage?

[Upstate Tiger]

Starting to see Canada fill up with colder air after mid-month and even some lake effect on the ops models.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BooneWX]

3 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Starting to see Canada fill up with colder air after mid-month and even some lake effect on the ops models.

I don’t have the link but I saw a post yesterday showing year over year trends in snowpack over Siberia and northern Canada. It appears it’s a bit better than normal. I put little stock in enso and upper atmospheric patterns until we get closer to climo but that’s one early indicator I’ve always believed in. We’ve struggled the past few years with cold snaps modifying too much before they make it this far. Every little bit of sea ice and snowpack in the great north will help. 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

I don’t have the link but I saw a post yesterday showing year over year trends in snowpack over Siberia and northern Canada. It appears it’s a bit better than normal. I put little stock in enso and upper atmospheric patterns until we get closer to climo but that’s one early indicator I’ve always believed in. We’ve struggled the past few years with cold snaps modifying too much before they make it this far. Every little bit of sea ice and snowpack in the great north will help. 

https://published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.html

"Siberian snow cover got off to a quick start in September and that has continued into October (see Figure ii), however it seems to me the rapid advance of late September has slowed a bit in October. In fact in a bit f an unusual twist the surface temperatures have been more impressive this month (as in cold) than the snow cover, typically it is the reversed. Above normal Siberian snow cover extent (SCE) favors a weak polar vortex this winter and more widespread severe winter weather across the NH"