Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[GaWx]

 The coastal areas of especially much of the Carolinas are likely going to be affected a good bit this weekend by Invest 92L, located ~100 miles E of N FL as it heads generally N. Recon will be in it early this afternoon. It’s possible that they’ll find that it’s already a TD. If so, TS Chantal may not be far behind. Conditions are moderately conducive to development. See the Tropical subforum for a dedicated thread for this.

Edit 5PM: officially now is TD3 and forecasted to become TS Chantal before landfall on SC

[UnionCountyNCWX]

On 6/19/2025 at 11:27 AM, Upstate Tiger said:

As we wait for our impending heat wave to develop over the weekend, the latest ENSO forecast is out.  Looks to stay neutral into the fall.  Overall forecast still showing neutral to last into January (48%) but weak Nina has increased (41%) for late fall early next year.   

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

Just saw a post on FB from some met im not familiar with (not from the SE) that mentioned it's looking like another La Nina winter coming up. (Because why wouldn't it be lol)

 

Also my weekly "It's hot, turn in next week for another update" post.

 

Getting to head to Delray Beach, FL on Friday for a week. Feels weird to say im escaping the heat by going to Florida, but that is in fact the case. 

[Upstate Tiger]

Not a forecast endorsement but interesting reading for a hot afternoon.  Provides education on the complicated relationship of winter teleconnections. 
 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-forecast-data-weak-polar-vortex-united-states-canada-winter-2025-2026-fa/

 

[olafminesaw]

Soggy weather will continue until morale improves 

[BooneWX]

6 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Soggy weather will continue until morale improves 

On the bright side, if that’s the case, my lawn looks like it’ll come through the worst of summer with minimum thinning. 

[wncsnow]

2 hours ago, BooneWX said:

On the bright side, if that’s the case, my lawn looks like it’ll come through the worst of summer with minimum thinning. 

I'll trade some thinning for mowing every 5 days..

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Did this year’s summer outlooks predict a soggy summer?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[eyewall]

This has to be one of the worst summers I can remember for dewpoints. I am so ready for it to be over.

[olafminesaw]

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

This has to be one of the worst summers I can remember for dewpoints. I am so ready for it to be over.

It has been worse than normal, although July is typically fairly consistent in that regard. I think the rain makes it feel worse because RH% has somewhat of an impact on how humid it feels as well, not just the dewpoint.

[GaWx]

 Based on the quotes I copied below from June showing the GFS as having verified as being much too hot for highs, the 0Z 7/22 GFS will almost certainly verify as too hot and likely much too hot for highs as the hottest at ATL was 95 on 6/24 and 96 on 6/25.

 First, here’s the laughable 0Z 7/22 GFS for KPDK (NE ATL/Chamblee) (0Z Euro is much cooler there with hottest highs of “only” 101 on 7/30 and 103 on 7/31 and will likely come much closer): highs of 100 today vs FFC’s forecast of 96, 103 on 7/28, 104 on 7/29, 108 on 7/30, and 107 on 7/31 (Keeping in mind that FFC was almost spot on for the late June heat by being much cooler than the GFS, FFC’s forecast hottest through 7/29 is only mid 90s):

 Second, here are quotes of two posts I made elsewhere in late June showing the way too hot GFS progs for late June highs:

“KATL is also looking brutal on the 6Zs this week with these highs: (GFS/Euro)

6/22: 96/91
6/23: 99/95
6/24: 103/102
6/25: 101/104
6/26: 94/96
6/27: 96/87

 Currently FFC has ATL’s hottest on 6/25 with upper 90s, but they’re watching closely.”

and

”Which did better today for highs, GFS or Euro?

6Z GFS/Euro highs today for:

RDU: 103/99 vs actual of 100; Euro wins

GSO: 101/100 vs actual of 95; both were terrible though Euro less terrible

FAY: 99/99 vs actual of 98; both did well

ATL: 102/98 vs actual of 95; Euro did better than the awful GFS but still was 3 too hot

Euro also did better yesterday at GSO and FAY

 So for these 2 days overall, Euro did significantly better than GFS, which tended to be at least several degrees too hot.”

[GaWx]

 I compared the 0Z 7/22 GFS and Euro progged highs for ATL. Now I’ll do it for NC:

0Z 7/22 hottest highs for RDU/GSO/FAY:

0Z 7/22 GFS: RDU 102 (7/29), GSO 101 (7/29), FAY 104 (7/28)

0Z 7/22 Euro: RDU 98 (7/27); GSO 98 (7/27, 7/30, 7/31); FAY 100 (7/27)

 So, the 0Z 7/22 GFS’ hottest is hotter than that for the Euro by 3-4 F. That sounds quite familiar.

 Who do you favor? Based on many significantly too hot GFS runs and much closer Euro runs for the late June heatwave, I’m easily favoring the Euro for GSO/FAY. RDU is tricky though because of its often too hot sensor. So, I’ll go halfway between for RDU (what verified there in late June).

 So, I’m going 100 for RDU, 98 for GSO, and 100 for FAY as of now for a wild guess of the hottest of 7/27-31.

[eyewall]

I just want this summer to end quickly.

[NorthHillsWx]

3 hours ago, eyewall said:

I just want this summer to end quickly.

The humidity this summer has been off the charts. Today is a welcomed reprieve 

[NorthHillsWx]

Long term looks very dry

[gman]

The past few days of radar versus actual rain and future forecasts tell me that Greenville County (below T.R.) is at the epicenter of the heat dome. Seriously, storm's dry up as they reach middle Greenville County. We have gotten only 1.25" of rain all month and nothing in the last week or so. On a bright note, we ate lunch yesterday at our favorite spot in Fletcher, Kosta's Kitchen. It was only 74 degrees with a wonderful breeze at 1:00, nice enough to sit outside on the porch area. I am ready for apple season and cooler weather.

[Shack]

In case folks don't check the "Banter" page.

Our friend and moderator, jburns, passed away on Monday.  Here is the link to his sons post.

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Very sad news. Praying for his family and friends 

[GaWx]

 Absolute brutality will be coming early next week from Mother Nature if this forecast for my area verifies well:

SUNDAY  
SUNNY, HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP  
TO 110.  

SUNDAY NIGHT  
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 80. HEAT INDEX VALUES  
UP TO 110 EARLY IN THE EVENING.  

MONDAY  
SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOT  
WITH HIGHS AROUND 100. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX  
VALUES UP TO 115.  

MONDAY NIGHT  
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.  
HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110 EARLY IN THE EVENING.  

TUESDAY  
SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX  
VALUES UP TO 115.

[yotaman]

Got my grass cut this morning before the heat hits. Looks absolutely brutal from tomorrow thru Tuesday.

[GaWx]

Absolutely horrible forecast for my area:

GAZ118-260500-  
INLAND CHATHAM-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GARDEN CITY, POOLER, AND SAVANNAH  
549 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025  

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EDT  
SUNDAY...  
...EXTREME HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH  
MONDAY EVENING...  

TONIGHT  
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO  
10 MPH, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  

SATURDAY  
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP  
TO 112. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT  
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST  
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 

SUNDAY  
SUNNY, HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 101. NORTHWEST WINDS  
AROUND 5 MPH. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 113.  

SUNDAY NIGHT  
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS  
AROUND 5 MPH. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 106 EARLY IN THE EVENING.  

MONDAY  
SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100. CHANCE OF RAIN  
20 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 115.  

MONDAY NIGHT  
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.  
HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 105 EARLY IN THE EVENING.  

TUESDAY  
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.  
HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 115. 

[wncsnow]

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Absolutely horrible forecast for my area:

GAZ118-260500-  
INLAND CHATHAM-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GARDEN CITY, POOLER, AND SAVANNAH  
549 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2025  

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EDT  
SUNDAY...  
...EXTREME HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH  
MONDAY EVENING...  

TONIGHT  
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO  
10 MPH, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  

SATURDAY  
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP  
TO 112. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT  
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST  
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 

SUNDAY  
SUNNY, HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 101. NORTHWEST WINDS  
AROUND 5 MPH. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 113.  

SUNDAY NIGHT  
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS  
AROUND 5 MPH. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 106 EARLY IN THE EVENING.  

MONDAY  
SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. HOT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100. CHANCE OF RAIN  
20 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 115.  

MONDAY NIGHT  
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.  
HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 105 EARLY IN THE EVENING.  

TUESDAY  
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.  
HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 115. 

Ouch

[yotaman]

Heat warning for us from Saturday morning thru Sunday night. Highs upper 90's with heat index about 115.

[KChuck]

On 7/22/2025 at 11:00 AM, eyewall said:

I just want this summer to end quickly.

Watch what you wish for!!! (It may come true in ways you don't want!)

[KChuck]

On 7/23/2025 at 2:36 PM, Shack said:

In case folks don't check the "Banter" page.

Our friend and moderator, jburns, passed away on Monday.  Here is the link to his sons post.

 

John Henry Burns Obituary

Mr. John Henry Burns, 77, resident of Archdale, died July 21, 2025, at High Point Medical Center. He was born in Hoboken, New Jersey, on November 6, 1947, to John Henry Burns, Sr. and Helen Elizabeth (Plue) Burns. He grew up in West Milford, New Jersey.

A veteran of the United States Army during the Vietnam Era, Mr. Burns attended the U.S. Naval School of Music and performed as a trumpeter in the 76th Army Band in West Germany. He received a Bachelor’s Degree in Music from Appalachian State University in 1974 and a Master’s in Music Supervision in 1980. A lifelong educator and exceptional musician, Mr. Burns was the director of bands at Floyd County (VA) High School, T.W. Andrews High School, and Thomasville Senior High School. He retired as Vice Principal of Thomasville Middle School in 2007.

He is survived by his wife, the former Amy Story, who he married in 1986. Also surviving is his son, John David Burns (Janice Skelly) of Raleigh; four daughters, Jennifer Johnson (Tim) of Morganton, Rev. Megan Argabrite (Eric) of Charlotte, Laura Burns of High Point and Carol Burns of Greensboro; and seven grandchildren: Duncan, Eleanor, and Lincoln Burns of Raleigh, Emma Johnson of Kernersville, Cole Johnson of Morganton, and Evie and Davey Argabrite of Charlotte. In addition to his parents, he was preceded in death by his brother, Dr. Dennis E. Burns, in 2003. He will be remembered by his family and friends for his brilliant musicianship, his sense of humor and his inquisitive mind. He loved teaching, jazz, fishing, photography, meteorology, good dogs, Dad jokes, and - even at 77 - a good video game.

A celebration of life service with military honors will be held at 2:00 p.m. on Monday, August 4, in the chapel of Cumby Family Funeral Service in Archdale. The family will receive friends immediately following the service at the funeral home. Memorials may be directed to the Leukemia & Lymphoma Society (www.lls.org), the Hospital at Home Program c/o Atrium Health Foundation at 7800 Providence Rd. Suite 208, Charlotte, NC 28226 (www.atriumhealthfoundation.org/tribute), or National Public Radio (www.npr.org).

Online condolences can be made at www.cumbyfuneral.com. Arrangements by Cumby Family Funeral Service in Archdale.

[gman]

After reading this from the GSP NWS, I am looking forward to next weekend. 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 139 AM EDT Friday: Deep upper ridging will continue through
the middle of the week, and as a result widespread heat issues
will continue at least through Wednesday.  Meanwhile, a robust
500mb low will develop over eastern Canada, gaining momentum
and pivoting into Quebec on Thursday...and resulting in markedly
lowered heights over the Southeastern U.S.  This should, at long
last, bring an end to the heat wave.  Models begin to diverge
toward the end of the period, but the general consensus is that
sometime on Friday into next weekend, a cold front will dig
out of the Ohio Valley into the Carolinas, spurring an increase
in shower/thunderstorm activity while ushering a cooler, drier
air mass into the region.  Despite ensemble variability by this
point, confidence is improving in low severe potential with this
system...as even the more aggressive end of the ensemble envelop
keeps deep shear too low for anything more than loose organization,
and a distinct lack of dry air aloft should keep DCAPE limited.