Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[DocATL]

the lack of snow is compounded by the overall zzzzzs following what has been a benign couple of years wx wise, really just ready for things to get wild again, february tors, ice storm, morch, something

Could definitely see a mega torch in February followed by a a March snowstorm.


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[Maxim]

2 hours ago, DocATL said:

Could definitely see a mega torch in February followed by a a March snowstorm.


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Other way around is more likely this year imo. I actually feel like this spring might torch really hard, but a lot of it is going to depend on ENSO and any potential late-season SSW (happened in 2018 and completely screwed up the spring of that year).

[mississaugasnow]

1 hour ago, Maxim said:

Other way around is more likely this year imo. I actually feel like this spring might torch really hard, but a lot of it is going to depend on ENSO and any potential late-season SSW (happened in 2018 and completely screwed up the spring of that year).

sign me up for a spring torch 

 

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzzz

 

just endless ass end of nw flow

[Stevo6899]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

Zzzzzz

 

just endless ass end of nw flow

While just west of Amarillo gets a foot, Arkansas, 4-8 in Nashville. It's almost comical at this point. Can almost guarantee when a storm comes rolling along in a week, we'll be battling precip issues. 

[A-L-E-K]

suspect the 19/20th event will be another miss south

[Cary67]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

suspect the 19/20th event will be another miss south

Have to take my daughter back to the University of Iowa next weekend. Figure that's when the hex is lifted

[A-L-E-K]

fingers crossed

[sbnwx85]

 

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Zzzzzz

 

just endless ass end of nw flow

Hoping the lakes don't freeze over too quickly to keep the LE hopes alive.

[DocATL]

 
Hoping the lakes don't freeze over too quickly to keep the LE hopes alive.

They’re good. Freeze em solid.


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[DocATL]

Zzzzzz
 
just endless ass end of nw flow

Patterns persists despite what people see on an ensemble three weeks out and mumbo jumbo about changing trough positions. To top things off the baroclinicity south of us will draw anything synoptic to those areas. It’s all nickel and dime till springtime.

[michsnowfreak]

23 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Patterns persists despite what people see on an ensemble three weeks out and mumbo jumbo about changing trough positions. To top things off the baroclinicity south of us will draw anything synoptic to those areas. It’s all nickel and dime till springtime.

Patterns do persist for periods of time, but changing patterns, trough positions, etc are not mumbo jumbo. It's meteorology. The pattern absolutely will undergo multiple changes before springtime. Whether it's favorable or unfavorable to any one area remains to be seen.

[Frog Town]

500 MB trough is just not cooperating and migrating west to benefit our sub.  ENS looked like it would earlier this week but this is not the case currently.  Until this happens, we will get shafted.  

[A-L-E-K]

patterns always get stuck these days, eventually we'll get stuck on snow mode but we'll be running out of climo here before you know it

[DocATL]

500 MB trough is just not cooperating and migrating west to benefit our sub.  ENS looked like it would earlier this week but this is not the case currently.  Until this happens, we will get shafted.  

Exactly. No indication for change.


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[mimillman]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

patterns always get stuck these days, eventually we'll get stuck on snow mode but we'll be running out of climo here before you know it

I’ll take the 12z euro MLK special 

[A-L-E-K]

16 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I’ll take the 12z euro MLK special 

works out for us especially, yet another painful cutoff entirely dependent on timing to work out

at least it's on the table tho

[RogueWaves]

6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

works out for us especially, yet another painful cutoff entirely dependent on timing to work out

at least it's on the table tho

That table's been pretty wobbly this winter. CPC's odd map with the high winds swath south of us. wonder what they are thinking?

[A-L-E-K]

[Frog Town]

Nothing burger...

[DocATL]

Nothing burger...

It’s all useless outside of 72 hours. At this point maybe it’s better that it shows nothing.


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[SchaumburgStormer]

 

suicidebooth.gif

[Cary67]

2 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

 

suicidebooth.gif

Finally further NW opens up opportunity for the heaviest dusting in the area

[mimillman]

Virginia Beach gets 20” of snow on the 12z GFS

[hlcater]

Real chance we go into february here with under 5" of seasonal snowfall and BA temp anomalies...

[Frog Town]

I know you should never get too excited from one model run 5 days out buuuutttttttt,   It's happening!

 

Actually more of a pattern thing but man are things lining up awesome for someone in the southern lakes to buried.  At least it's something to track.  

[DocATL]

I’m growing accustomed to these nickels and dimes and strangely fond of them. Models, GFS especially, will advertise it a week out, then it trends away only to show back up the night before.


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[Stevo6899]

19 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

I know you should never get too excited from one model run 5 days out buuuutttttttt,   It's happening!

 

Actually more of a pattern thing but man are things lining up awesome for someone in the southern lakes to buried.  At least it's something to track.  

Just shows you the volatility in the models past 5 days. For a few days gfs had this next threat as a strong front, atleast in this region. Today's 12z looks to develop a low further south in the plains instead of a more dominant low up in canada.

[mimillman]

I’ll be in New York next weekend so lock it 

[mimillman]

What the euro is printing for the southeast is just absolutely historic