2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Coach McGuirk]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Maybe but what's a bust to you?

Nothing. 

[Coach McGuirk]

I mean that one coastal low should have been named.  6 inches of rain here and coastal flooding. 

[WxWatcher007]

I think we need to see how the next few weeks play out, but definitely true that most missed the early September peak of the season being historically dead. 

[Coach McGuirk]

I don't expect anything from these two tropical waves.  They could become hurricanes but are likely out to sea. 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

I don't expect anything from these two tropical waves.  They could become hurricanes but are likely out to sea. 

With a trough possibly in SE Canada at the time of closest approach no direct hit is definitely on the table.

[Coach McGuirk]

Interesting about Hurricane Gabrielle.  Heated straight to Portugal. 
nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/240532.shtml?cone#contents

[NorthHillsWx]

Latest HWRF takes a cat 3 into NC from 94L

[cptcatz]

Is it really october if the long range gfs doesn't show a catastrophe for south florida?

[Seminole]

3 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Is it really october if the long range gfs doesn't show a catastrophe for south florida?

GFS has gone back and forth with a CAG or western Caribbean genesis for several days now. The Euro not so much. This far out 

[Silver Meteor]

Over the many years I've seen tropical systems reach the Azores and even Portugal itself but North Africa? I don't recall ever seeing that. Anyone else? 

Imagine if it circled around for a second run across the Atlantic, storm trackers would lose their minds. (Yes I know the Sahara would make that problematic. How about a run into the Mediterranean? LOL)

 

[hawkeye_wx]

Another wild 18z Euro run.... has a 966 mb and a 933 mb hurricane off the coast.

[Supercane]

2 hours ago, Silver Meteor said:

Over the many years I've seen tropical systems reach the Azores and even Portugal itself but North Africa? I don't recall ever seeing that. Anyone else? 

Imagine if it circled around for a second run across the Atlantic, storm trackers would lose their minds. (Yes I know the Sahara would make that problematic. How about a run into the Mediterranean? LOL)

 

Tropical Storm Delta in 2005 is the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record to reach Africa at any point in its life - in Delta's case, it was as a moderate extratropical cyclone. It also caused significant wind damage to Canary Islands: 

 

[CheeselandSkies]

On 9/24/2025 at 5:15 PM, Silver Meteor said:

Over the many years I've seen tropical systems reach the Azores and even Portugal itself but North Africa? I don't recall ever seeing that. Anyone else? 

Imagine if it circled around for a second run across the Atlantic, storm trackers would lose their minds. (Yes I know the Sahara would make that problematic. How about a run into the Mediterranean? LOL)

 

At one point it looked like there was a chance Hurricane Leslie of 2018 might shoot the Straight of Gibraltar and become a "medicane," which would have been a fitting conclusion given that system's prior history.

[GoAPPS]

Current runs of the GFS and Euro show the western tropical system hitting South Carolina.

[MDSnow93]

Just saw that Gabrielle added 19 ACE compared to Erin's 32.2. Does anyone know what to expect from Humberto? 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, MDSnow93 said:

Just saw that Gabrielle added 19 ACE compared to Erin's 32.2. Does anyone know what to expect from Humberto? 

Per the current forecast Humberto would be near if not over Gabrielle’s number. Another high ACE producer incoming 

[GaWx]

 Per the latest Euro Weeklies: After Humberto and Imelda wind down ~10/4-5, there looks to be a brief break overall. 

 However, don’t get too comfortable as activity markedly picks up again to above normal on the run in the Gulf, NW Caribbean, and SW Atlantic (including Yucatan, Cuba, NC/NE US Gulf coast, FL/SE US coast, Bahamas, and Bermuda) with 140% of normal 10/13-19 and 160% of normal 10/20-26. This would be a 3rd peak of sorts for 2025 should it verify. This active period would resemble a somewhat toned down version of the freakishly active late seasons of 2020 and 2005 and similar to 1950, 1878, and 1870 for that area.

10/13-19:

 

10/20-26:

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Per the latest Euro Weeklies: After Humberto and Imelda wind down ~10/4-5, there looks to be a brief break overall. 

 However, don’t get too comfortable as activity markedly picks up again to above normal on the run in the Gulf, NW Caribbean, and SW Atlantic (including Yucatan, Cuba, NC/NE US Gulf coast, FL/SE US coast, Bahamas, and Bermuda) with 140% of normal 10/13-19 and 160% of normal 10/20-26. This would be a 3rd peak of sorts for 2025 should it verify. This active period would resemble a somewhat toned down version of the freakishly active late seasons of 2020 and 2005 and similar to 1950, 1878, and 1870 for that area.

10/13-19:

 

10/20-26:

Fits well with my peak season forecast. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Fits well with my peak season forecast. 

 I wasn’t paying any attention to the Gulf at all due to Humberto and TD9 til just now. I just noticed on the most recent runs that just about all models have a weak but notable surface low/spin initialized in the C Gulf that then drifts SW to the Bay of Campeche, where it seems to stall just W of the Yucatan at ~hour 96. Interesting.

And lo and behold, there’s a TD on the UKMET (12Z) for the first time in the Bay of Campeche at hour 120 that then drifts N through the end of the run to a threatening position in the W central Gulf. I just saw new UK maps and this UK TD is from the same low that’s now in the C Gulf!

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 20.7N 93.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2025 120 20.7N 93.3W 1009 26
0000UTC 04.10.2025 132 21.1N 93.0W 1007 25
1200UTC 04.10.2025 144 22.3N 93.0W 1005 30
0000UTC 05.10.2025 156 22.8N 92.8W 1004 24
1200UTC 05.10.2025 168 24.4N 92.8W 1005 26
———————

 12Z UKMET at 168 hours: this TD originates from the current C Gulf low and this becomes a TD on this run at 120, which moves N to this position at the end of the run (168):

 

 Also, check out the 12Z GFS at 168: there’s a TD that forms off of LA that then moves N into that state. That may or may not be directly related to the current C Gulf low, however, based on looking at vorticity maps.

[NorthHillsWx]

Put up or shut up time for the gulf

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Put up or shut up time for the gulf

Yeah Oct 7-20 is critical to my peak season forecast. I'm still thinking things heat up in the western Caribbean and Gulf during that period, and then we are winding down the season by the end of October. 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Put up or shut up time for the gulf

 

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah Oct 7-20 is critical to my peak season forecast. I'm still thinking things heat up in the western Caribbean and Gulf during that period, and then we are winding down the season by the end of October. 

 The 0Z UKMET (a model that tends to be a bit more stingy with TCG than the GFS) is the 2nd run in a row that develops a TC from the current C Gulf weak surface low after it moves S into the Bay of Campeche. This run actually has minimal TS winds early on. Whereas the prior run then moved it into a threatening position in the W-C Gulf, this run only moves it slowly back N to the end of the run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 19.9N 94.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2025 108 19.9N 94.7W 1009 36
0000UTC 04.10.2025 120 19.7N 93.9W 1008 31
1200UTC 04.10.2025 132 19.5N 93.9W 1006 31
0000UTC 05.10.2025 144 20.1N 94.2W 1005 29
1200UTC 05.10.2025 156 20.2N 94.0W 1005 26
0000UTC 06.10.2025 168 20.7N 94.5W 1004 27

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 The 0Z UKMET (a model that tends to be a bit more stingy with TCG than the GFS) is the 2nd run in a row that develops a TC from the current C Gulf weak surface low after it moves S into the Bay of Campeche. This run actually has minimal TS winds early on. Whereas the prior run then moved it into a threatening position in the W-C Gulf, this run only moves it slowly back N to the end of the run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 19.9N 94.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2025 108 19.9N 94.7W 1009 36
0000UTC 04.10.2025 120 19.7N 93.9W 1008 31
1200UTC 04.10.2025 132 19.5N 93.9W 1006 31
0000UTC 05.10.2025 144 20.1N 94.2W 1005 29
1200UTC 05.10.2025 156 20.2N 94.0W 1005 26
0000UTC 06.10.2025 168 20.7N 94.5W 1004 27

The GFS and Euro look like they’ve been trying to catch up with showing more vorticity and maybe a weak low developing, but time and shear may be inhibitors. There’s very clearly spin, but no convection whatsoever. It’s at least lemon worthy imo. 

[NorthHillsWx]

With Humberto remaining a major for another day at least and Imelda potentially strengthening into a formidable hurricane the Atlantic has a real shot to be near normal ACE as we head into October. This seemed impossible a couple weeks ago but two long track cat 4+ storms will do that. With a current ACE of around 80 and likely a boost of around 15 more from the current storms we would be very close to seasonal averages. It would take continued cyclone activity to catch all the way up but still, this is like the the US in the Ryder cup over the weekend 

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

With Humberto remaining a major for another day at least and Imelda potentially strengthening into a formidable hurricane the Atlantic has a real shot to be near normal ACE as we head into October. This seemed impossible a couple weeks ago but two long track cat 4+ storms will do that. With a current ACE of around 80 and likely a boost of around 15 more from the current storms we would be very close to seasonal averages. It would take continued cyclone activity to catch all the way up but still, this is like the the US in the Ryder cup over the weekend 

 The 30 year average (1991-2020) ACE as of Sept 30th is 94. 2025 as you implied is projected to be close to that making it near the average for the end of Sept. Looking ahead: the Euro Weeklies, weak La Niña, and recent active late seasons tell me that ending the season at least near the 30 year average of 122 is likely. Even my pre-season prog of 139 is in reach.

[GaWx]

A notable number of 6Z EPS members at 144 (~1/3) have a surface low in the Gulf (mainly northern portion) from something:

 

[olafminesaw]

12 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Put up or shut up time for the gulf

Could be the first season since 2015 without a land falling US hurricane. Ironic given that 2015 featured Joaquin, which like Imelda was forecasted to hook into the coast from the Bahamas a few days out but exited stage right instead

[WxWatcher007]

I think the risk is still there, especially as climo shifts to the Gulf/Western Caribbean. 

 

 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think the risk is still there, especially as climo shifts to the Gulf/Western Caribbean. 

 

 

 The Gulf looks somewhat active (more active than most of the season so far) overall on the 12Z models so far through 192 (Icon, GFS, CMC). However, the UKMET, which goes out only 168, did drop the Gulf TC per its textual output that it had on its prior 2 runs.

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The Gulf looks somewhat active (more active than most of the season so far) overall on the 12Z models so far. However, the UKMET, which goes out only 168, did drop the Gulf TC per its textual output that it had on its prior 2 runs.

Looking at the recent guidance, if I were going to highlight some areas of interest it would be the Gulf/SE Coast in the next week, the western Caribbean with a weak CAG signal in the 7-10 day period, and a tropical wave in the MDR in that same period. It looks pretty active--or at least there will be chances for TC genesis. Might do a post later about it. 

I track my peak season forecast numbers in the legacy Mid-Atlantic thread, but I'll post here too. Imelda likely gets me to 3 H or 50% of my forecast with three full weeks left (including today). It has an outside shot at MH, which may all but guarantee that I am too low on MH as I expect at least high end activity in October. 

Unfortunately for coastal residents, I still think a MH strike is likely, and that the east coast isn't out of the woods on threats. I'm not sure what to think about Imelda's threat to the coast--if not for Humberto going nuclear, I think this would've been the EC hurricane strike I predicted. For the east coast that definitely gets less likely in October though as the images I posted above show, that's really after the 10th. 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (4)
Hurricanes: 6 (2)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (2)

Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda