Coach McGuirk Posted Wednesday at 05:12 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:12 AM 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Maybe but what's a bust to you? Nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted Wednesday at 05:13 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:13 AM I mean that one coastal low should have been named. 6 inches of rain here and coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 05:28 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:28 AM I think we need to see how the next few weeks play out, but definitely true that most missed the early September peak of the season being historically dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted Wednesday at 05:55 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:55 AM I don't expect anything from these two tropical waves. They could become hurricanes but are likely out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 06:02 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:02 AM 5 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: I don't expect anything from these two tropical waves. They could become hurricanes but are likely out to sea. With a trough possibly in SE Canada at the time of closest approach no direct hit is definitely on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted Wednesday at 06:13 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:13 AM Interesting about Hurricane Gabrielle. Heated straight to Portugal. nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/240532.shtml?cone#contents 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Wednesday at 08:10 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:10 AM Latest HWRF takes a cat 3 into NC from 94L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted Wednesday at 11:43 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:43 AM Is it really october if the long range gfs doesn't show a catastrophe for south florida? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted Wednesday at 03:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:21 PM 3 hours ago, cptcatz said: Is it really october if the long range gfs doesn't show a catastrophe for south florida? GFS has gone back and forth with a CAG or western Caribbean genesis for several days now. The Euro not so much. This far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted Wednesday at 10:15 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:15 PM Over the many years I've seen tropical systems reach the Azores and even Portugal itself but North Africa? I don't recall ever seeing that. Anyone else? Imagine if it circled around for a second run across the Atlantic, storm trackers would lose their minds. (Yes I know the Sahara would make that problematic. How about a run into the Mediterranean? LOL) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted Thursday at 12:35 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:35 AM Another wild 18z Euro run.... has a 966 mb and a 933 mb hurricane off the coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted Thursday at 12:54 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:54 AM 2 hours ago, Silver Meteor said: Over the many years I've seen tropical systems reach the Azores and even Portugal itself but North Africa? I don't recall ever seeing that. Anyone else? Imagine if it circled around for a second run across the Atlantic, storm trackers would lose their minds. (Yes I know the Sahara would make that problematic. How about a run into the Mediterranean? LOL) Tropical Storm Delta in 2005 is the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record to reach Africa at any point in its life - in Delta's case, it was as a moderate extratropical cyclone. It also caused significant wind damage to Canary Islands: 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted Friday at 02:50 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:50 AM On 9/24/2025 at 5:15 PM, Silver Meteor said: Over the many years I've seen tropical systems reach the Azores and even Portugal itself but North Africa? I don't recall ever seeing that. Anyone else? Imagine if it circled around for a second run across the Atlantic, storm trackers would lose their minds. (Yes I know the Sahara would make that problematic. How about a run into the Mediterranean? LOL) At one point it looked like there was a chance Hurricane Leslie of 2018 might shoot the Straight of Gibraltar and become a "medicane," which would have been a fitting conclusion given that system's prior history. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoAPPS Posted Friday at 12:57 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:57 PM Current runs of the GFS and Euro show the western tropical system hitting South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDSnow93 Posted Friday at 09:21 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:21 PM Just saw that Gabrielle added 19 ACE compared to Erin's 32.2. Does anyone know what to expect from Humberto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Friday at 10:26 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:26 PM 1 hour ago, MDSnow93 said: Just saw that Gabrielle added 19 ACE compared to Erin's 32.2. Does anyone know what to expect from Humberto? Per the current forecast Humberto would be near if not over Gabrielle’s number. Another high ACE producer incoming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Per the latest Euro Weeklies: After Humberto and Imelda wind down ~10/4-5, there looks to be a brief break overall. However, don’t get too comfortable as activity markedly picks up again to above normal on the run in the Gulf, NW Caribbean, and SW Atlantic (including Yucatan, Cuba, NC/NE US Gulf coast, FL/SE US coast, Bahamas, and Bermuda) with 140% of normal 10/13-19 and 160% of normal 10/20-26. This would be a 3rd peak of sorts for 2025 should it verify. This active period would resemble a somewhat toned down version of the freakishly active late seasons of 2020 and 2005 and similar to 1950, 1878, and 1870 for that area. 10/13-19: 10/20-26: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: Per the latest Euro Weeklies: After Humberto and Imelda wind down ~10/4-5, there looks to be a brief break overall. However, don’t get too comfortable as activity markedly picks up again to above normal on the run in the Gulf, NW Caribbean, and SW Atlantic (including Yucatan, Cuba, NC/NE US Gulf coast, FL/SE US coast, Bahamas, and Bermuda) with 140% of normal 10/13-19 and 160% of normal 10/20-26. This would be a 3rd peak of sorts for 2025 should it verify. This active period would resemble a somewhat toned down version of the freakishly active late seasons of 2020 and 2005 and similar to 1950, 1878, and 1870 for that area. 10/13-19: 10/20-26: Fits well with my peak season forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Fits well with my peak season forecast. I wasn’t paying any attention to the Gulf at all due to Humberto and TD9 til just now. I just noticed on the most recent runs that just about all models have a weak but notable surface low/spin initialized in the C Gulf that then drifts SW to the Bay of Campeche, where it seems to stall just W of the Yucatan at ~hour 96. Interesting. And lo and behold, there’s a TD on the UKMET (12Z) for the first time in the Bay of Campeche at hour 120 that then drifts N through the end of the run to a threatening position in the W central Gulf. I just saw new UK maps and this UK TD is from the same low that’s now in the C Gulf! NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 20.7N 93.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.10.2025 120 20.7N 93.3W 1009 26 0000UTC 04.10.2025 132 21.1N 93.0W 1007 25 1200UTC 04.10.2025 144 22.3N 93.0W 1005 30 0000UTC 05.10.2025 156 22.8N 92.8W 1004 24 1200UTC 05.10.2025 168 24.4N 92.8W 1005 26 ——————— 12Z UKMET at 168 hours: this TD originates from the current C Gulf low and this becomes a TD on this run at 120, which moves N to this position at the end of the run (168): Also, check out the 12Z GFS at 168: there’s a TD that forms off of LA that then moves N into that state. That may or may not be directly related to the current C Gulf low, however, based on looking at vorticity maps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Put up or shut up time for the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Put up or shut up time for the gulf Yeah Oct 7-20 is critical to my peak season forecast. I'm still thinking things heat up in the western Caribbean and Gulf during that period, and then we are winding down the season by the end of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Put up or shut up time for the gulf 3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah Oct 7-20 is critical to my peak season forecast. I'm still thinking things heat up in the western Caribbean and Gulf during that period, and then we are winding down the season by the end of October. The 0Z UKMET (a model that tends to be a bit more stingy with TCG than the GFS) is the 2nd run in a row that develops a TC from the current C Gulf weak surface low after it moves S into the Bay of Campeche. This run actually has minimal TS winds early on. Whereas the prior run then moved it into a threatening position in the W-C Gulf, this run only moves it slowly back N to the end of the run: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 19.9N 94.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.10.2025 108 19.9N 94.7W 1009 36 0000UTC 04.10.2025 120 19.7N 93.9W 1008 31 1200UTC 04.10.2025 132 19.5N 93.9W 1006 31 0000UTC 05.10.2025 144 20.1N 94.2W 1005 29 1200UTC 05.10.2025 156 20.2N 94.0W 1005 26 0000UTC 06.10.2025 168 20.7N 94.5W 1004 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, GaWx said: The 0Z UKMET (a model that tends to be a bit more stingy with TCG than the GFS) is the 2nd run in a row that develops a TC from the current C Gulf weak surface low after it moves S into the Bay of Campeche. This run actually has minimal TS winds early on. Whereas the prior run then moved it into a threatening position in the W-C Gulf, this run only moves it slowly back N to the end of the run: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 19.9N 94.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 03.10.2025 108 19.9N 94.7W 1009 36 0000UTC 04.10.2025 120 19.7N 93.9W 1008 31 1200UTC 04.10.2025 132 19.5N 93.9W 1006 31 0000UTC 05.10.2025 144 20.1N 94.2W 1005 29 1200UTC 05.10.2025 156 20.2N 94.0W 1005 26 0000UTC 06.10.2025 168 20.7N 94.5W 1004 27 The GFS and Euro look like they’ve been trying to catch up with showing more vorticity and maybe a weak low developing, but time and shear may be inhibitors. There’s very clearly spin, but no convection whatsoever. It’s at least lemon worthy imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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