NorthHillsWx Posted Sunday at 01:52 AM Share Posted Sunday at 01:52 AM 5 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Bastardi making the daring prediction that 'the season isn't over' when it's not even September 10th yet lol I cannot stand him. Used to be one of the best but gave into social media and clicks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted Sunday at 02:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:09 PM When is the last time on Sept 7 the NHC site showed zero disturbances in the next 7 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Sunday at 02:22 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 02:22 PM Joe Bastard said there are similarities with this year and last year with the mjo placements only difference was that last year had lower amplitude so anyone screeching season cancel should sod off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Sunday at 04:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:26 PM https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1964658176609116561 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Sunday at 04:42 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 04:42 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Sunday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:08 PM https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1964683857149493603 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Sunday at 06:43 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 06:43 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 07:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:10 PM 5 hours ago, bigtenfan said: When is the last time on Sept 7 the NHC site showed zero disturbances in the next 7 days. 9/7/2015 (see below) was the last 9/7 TWO with no new TCG being considered. However, that was going into a strong El Niño, there was TS Grace then in existence in the E MDR, and the outlooks then went out only 5 rather than 7 days. Also, this TWO failed to see a new TD (which lead to Henri) that formed 9/8-9 in the subtropics: TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Grace, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Pasch https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo_5day/gtwo_archive.php?current_issuance=201509071437&basin=atlc&fdays=2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 07:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:21 PM 5 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Joe Bastard said there are similarities with this year and last year with the mjo placements only difference was that last year had lower amplitude so anyone screeching season cancel should sod off Barry, I don’t know why JB is saying that. The Sept 2025 MJO (first 7 days plus 2 week forecast through 9/21) looks nothing like 2024! Sept 2025: -GEFS: lower to moderate amplitude 2, 3, 2, 1, 8, which is actually favorable -EPS: lower to moderate amplitude 2, 3, 2, 1, 8, which is actually favorable Sept 1-21 of 2024 (blue): moderate to high amplitude 4, 5, 6 (not usually favorable unlike what we now have) was like night and day vs 2025: Perhaps JB is looking further ahead to late Sept-Oct. Regardless, he wants lots of clicks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Sunday at 09:09 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 09:09 PM 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Barry, I don’t know why JB is saying that. The Sept 2025 MJO (first 7 days plus 2 week forecast through 9/21) looks nothing like 2024! Sept 2025: -GEFS: lower to moderate amplitude 2, 3, 2, 1, 8, which is actually favorable -EPS: lower to moderate amplitude 2, 3, 2, 1, 8, which is actually favorable Sept 1-21 of 2024 (blue): moderate to high amplitude 4, 5, 6 (not usually favorable unlike what we now have) was like night and day vs 2025: Perhaps JB is looking further ahead to late Sept-Oct. Regardless, he wants lots of clicks! I wonder if this means ironically if hurricane formation would be more favourable in 2025 than last year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 09:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:16 PM 4 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: I wonder if this means ironically if hurricane formation would be more favourable in 2025 than last year MJOwise, alone, 9/7-21/25 is clearly more favorable than 9/7-21/24. But the MJO is just one factor of many. There’s lots of variation of actual outlines within each MJO phase. The MJO is best treated as a guidance tool rather than a crystal ball. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Sunday at 09:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:26 PM On 9/6/2025 at 5:12 PM, BarryStantonGBP said: I will bloody repeat AGAIN THE MJO IS BEING STALLED IN PHASES 8 - 2 AND WE WILL GET MORE MOISTURE DRAGGED UP DURING MID-LATE MONTH I’ll repeat in the winter we call them snow crows when they are Always talking about “10 days away….then 10 days away…10…10……”. For tropical good rhyming name is blow crow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Sunday at 09:39 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 09:39 PM 22 minutes ago, GaWx said: MJOwise, alone, 9/7-21/25 is clearly more favorable than 9/7-21/24. But the MJO is just one factor of many. There’s lots of variation of actual outlines within each MJO phase. The MJO is best treated as a guidance tool rather than a crystal ball. no wonder on my return dates using Gazza's theories I have a significant gulf storm from 22 - 28th September innit around LA/TX but idk what do you think bruv 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted Sunday at 10:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:08 PM 20 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: I cannot stand him. Used to be one of the best but gave into social media and clicks Yep I used to love Bastardi and watched him a lot in the late 2000s and early 2010's. I legitimately think social media and politics rotted his brain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:39 PM 1 hour ago, BarryStantonGBP said: no wonder on my return dates using Gazza's theories I have a significant gulf storm from 22 - 28th September innit around LA/TX but idk what do you think bruv I can’t make that detailed a call, but that’s the start of prime W Caribbean/Gulf season climowise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted yesterday at 12:22 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 12:22 AM 43 minutes ago, GaWx said: I can’t make that detailed a call, but that’s the start of prime W Caribbean/Gulf season climowise. Told you bruv. I also had these as return dates so you can see where I'm coming from innit Quote What’s already popped off (Andrea → Fernand) Storm Formed Return-date hit Gap Numero vibe Reality check Andrea 23 Jun 16 Jun (Milton echo) +7 d 9 + 7 → low-key opener Lil’ warm-up swirl, no hype Barry 28 Jun 30 Jun (Francine) -2 d 1 front-runner / 9 reach Short spin, killer rips, gone Chantal 4 Jul 3 Jul (24-Oct anchor) +1 d 5 sprint / 3 quick Carolina coast dash, out Dexter 4 Aug 28 Jul (Milton) +7 d 4 boxed / 3 quick Open-ocean meh, stayed boxed Erin 11 Aug 11 Aug (Francine) 0 d 1 flagship / 7 bend Went Cat-5, long trek, headlines Fernand 23 Aug 28 Aug (Helene) -5 d 11 flash / 8 juice Burst twice, then dipped Next return date I have is for 16th September-ish for a weaker MDR storm and 25th September for a more intense Gulf storm. In fact GDM and a few ensembles are hinting at the MDR storm right now The CAGs are difficult to detect. for some reason ENS keep thinking it might be an EPAC/baja storm... because things seem to favour the EPAC more rn. but watch it flip dramatically I'm telling you innit I've got about 4-5 return dates for October as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 12:39 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:39 AM 16 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Told you bruv. I also had these as return dates so you can see where I'm coming from innit Next return date I have is for 16th September-ish for a weaker MDR storm and 25th September for a more intense Gulf storm. In fact GDM and a few ensembles are hinting at the MDR storm right now The CAGs are difficult to detect. for some reason ENS keep thinking it might be an EPAC/baja storm... because things seem to favour the EPAC more rn. but watch it flip dramatically I'm telling you innit I've got about 4-5 return dates for October as well Is this Gary Lezak stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted yesterday at 12:54 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 12:54 AM 15 minutes ago, GaWx said: Is this Gary Lezak stuff? Yes lad, respect Gazza innit! What are your thoughts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 01:14 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:14 AM 18 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Yes lad, respect Gazza innit! What are your thoughts? My thought is that he did pretty well with boldly saying early on the Carolinas would be impacted by Erin. How has he done otherwise as of Sept 7th? Had he made other bold calls? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted yesterday at 02:56 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:56 AM 5 hours ago, GaWx said: MJOwise, alone, 9/7-21/25 is clearly more favorable than 9/7-21/24. But the MJO is just one factor of many. There’s lots of variation of actual outlines within each MJO phase. The MJO is best treated as a guidance tool rather than a crystal ball. Yep…just one factor. I don’t think 2025 for my period of expected activity is quite as favorable as 2024. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 04:32 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:32 AM 2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: said that if the early September milton window is missed it'll happen in late September instead also October will be v active I am also not buying into the dramatic lowering of the euro weeklies. dont even trust them anymore what about you innit Thanks. As I mentioned elsewhere, I think a good portion of the EW lowering in weeks 1-2 is due to the 91L model bust while the powering in week 3 is too far out to be 91L related. Regarding trusting them, I don’t trust any model as there’s too much inherent uncertainty especially as one goes out further. But I do use them as tools. I feel that the EW have done reasonably well enough since 2024 regarding the overall big pic/trends that following them at least for trends is probably somewhat useful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 13.9N 32.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.09.2025 156 15.0N 33.7W 1012 27 1200UTC 15.09.2025 168 15.1N 37.9W 1010 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Back below average ACE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 6 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Where’s this at lazza Middle of MDR moving WNW to W as a strengthening TD early next week underneath a stout high: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago zzzzzzzzzzzz 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 33 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Any news elsewhere like the gulf innit? -It’s still rather active in the Gulf just beyond midmonth on the 12Z ensemble runs. -New Euro Weeklies are similar to yesterday with below avg ACE weeks 1-2 followed by a rise to NN. Gulf activity is BN weeks 1-2 rising to NN or above weeks 3-4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cholorob Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago oi lad thoughts on the carib tropical wave Stratton is yapping about?Enough with the chav speak and pretending to be street from the UK. This is a weather forum, not some TikTok twinkle toes dance off. Bad enough you use a famously racist troll account name as your user name here. If I ran this place I would have banned you immediately for the chutzpah of bringing that bad form into a serious forum like this.For those not familiar with the Barry Stanton racist Twitter persona, here is more information about it. Plenty more of this on Google.https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13802719/amp/British-grandfather-left-terrified-police-arrest-cruel-social-media-trolls-use-pictures-family-online-spreading-racist-messages.html. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Well then... Can't say I Google members names but that's pretty effed up. I can't do anything but remove/hide his posts and will do so until he explains himself to someone with a higher pay grade. In the meantime report his posts that get by until they make a decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago National Hurricane Center 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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