2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[NorthHillsWx]

5 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Bastardi making the daring prediction that 'the season isn't over' when it's not even September 10th yet lol

I cannot stand him. Used to be one of the best but gave into social media and clicks 

[bigtenfan]

When is the last time on Sept 7 the NHC site showed zero disturbances in the next 7 days.

[BarryStantonGBP]

Joe Bastard said there are similarities with this year and last year with the mjo placements 

only difference was that last year had lower amplitude 

so anyone screeching season cancel should sod off

[yoda]

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1964658176609116561

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[yoda]

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1964683857149493603

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

 

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

When is the last time on Sept 7 the NHC site showed zero disturbances in the next 7 days.

9/7/2015 (see below) was the last 9/7 TWO with no new TCG being considered. However, that was going into a strong El Niño, there was TS Grace then in existence in the E MDR, and the outlooks then went out only 5 rather than 7 days. Also, this TWO failed to see a new TD (which lead to Henri) that formed 9/8-9 in the subtropics:

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Grace, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo_5day/gtwo_archive.php?current_issuance=201509071437&basin=atlc&fdays=2

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Joe Bastard said there are similarities with this year and last year with the mjo placements 

only difference was that last year had lower amplitude 

so anyone screeching season cancel should sod off

Barry,

  I don’t know why JB is saying that. The Sept 2025 MJO (first 7 days plus 2 week forecast through 9/21) looks nothing like 2024!

Sept 2025:

-GEFS: lower to moderate amplitude 2, 3, 2, 1, 8, which is actually favorable

-EPS:  lower to moderate amplitude 2, 3, 2, 1, 8, which is actually favorable

 

Sept 1-21 of 2024 (blue): moderate to high amplitude 4, 5, 6 (not usually favorable unlike what we now have) was like night and day vs 2025:

 

 Perhaps JB is looking further ahead to late Sept-Oct. Regardless, he wants lots of clicks!

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Barry,

  I don’t know why JB is saying that. The Sept 2025 MJO (first 7 days plus 2 week forecast through 9/21) looks nothing like 2024!

Sept 2025:

-GEFS: lower to moderate amplitude 2, 3, 2, 1, 8, which is actually favorable

-EPS:  lower to moderate amplitude 2, 3, 2, 1, 8, which is actually favorable

 

Sept 1-21 of 2024 (blue): moderate to high amplitude 4, 5, 6 (not usually favorable unlike what we now have) was like night and day vs 2025:

 

 Perhaps JB is looking further ahead to late Sept-Oct. Regardless, he wants lots of clicks!

I wonder if this means ironically if hurricane formation would be more favourable in 2025 than last year

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

I wonder if this means ironically if hurricane formation would be more favourable in 2025 than last year

 MJOwise, alone, 9/7-21/25 is clearly more favorable than 9/7-21/24. But the MJO is just one factor of many. There’s lots of variation of actual outlines within each MJO phase. The MJO is best treated as a guidance tool rather than a crystal ball.

[WEATHER53]

On 9/6/2025 at 5:12 PM, BarryStantonGBP said:

I will bloody repeat AGAIN

THE MJO IS BEING STALLED IN PHASES 8 - 2 AND WE WILL GET MORE MOISTURE DRAGGED UP DURING MID-LATE MONTH

I’ll repeat

in the winter we call them snow crows when they are Always talking about “10 days away….then 10 days  away…10…10……”.  For tropical  good rhyming name is blow  crow.

[BarryStantonGBP]

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 MJOwise, alone, 9/7-21/25 is clearly more favorable than 9/7-21/24. But the MJO is just one factor of many. There’s lots of variation of actual outlines within each MJO phase. The MJO is best treated as a guidance tool rather than a crystal ball.

no wonder on my return dates using Gazza's theories I have a significant gulf storm from 22 - 28th September innit

around LA/TX but idk what do you think bruv

[TheDreamTraveler]

20 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I cannot stand him. Used to be one of the best but gave into social media and clicks 

Yep I used to love Bastardi and watched him a lot in the late 2000s and early 2010's. I legitimately think social media and politics rotted his brain

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

no wonder on my return dates using Gazza's theories I have a significant gulf storm from 22 - 28th September innit

around LA/TX but idk what do you think bruv

 I can’t make that detailed a call, but that’s the start of prime W Caribbean/Gulf season climowise.

[BarryStantonGBP]

43 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I can’t make that detailed a call, but that’s the start of prime W Caribbean/Gulf season climowise.

Told you bruv. I also had these as return dates so you can see where I'm coming from innit

 

Quote

 

What’s already popped off (Andrea → Fernand)

Storm	Formed	Return-date hit	Gap	Numero vibe	Reality check
Andrea	23 Jun	16 Jun (Milton echo)	+7 d	9 + 7 → low-key opener	Lil’ warm-up swirl, no hype
Barry	28 Jun	30 Jun (Francine)	-2 d	1 front-runner / 9 reach	Short spin, killer rips, gone
Chantal	4 Jul	3 Jul (24-Oct anchor)	+1 d	5 sprint / 3 quick	Carolina coast dash, out
Dexter	4 Aug	28 Jul (Milton)	+7 d	4 boxed / 3 quick	Open-ocean meh, stayed boxed
Erin	11 Aug	11 Aug (Francine)	0 d	1 flagship / 7 bend	Went Cat-5, long trek, headlines
Fernand	23 Aug	28 Aug (Helene)	-5 d	11 flash / 8 juice	Burst twice, then dipped

 

 

Next return date I have is for 16th September-ish for a weaker MDR storm and 25th September for a more intense Gulf storm. In fact GDM and a few ensembles are hinting at the MDR storm right now

The CAGs are difficult to detect. for some reason ENS keep thinking it might be an EPAC/baja storm... because things seem to favour the EPAC more rn. but watch it flip dramatically I'm telling you innit

I've got about 4-5 return dates for October as well

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Told you bruv. I also had these as return dates so you can see where I'm coming from innit

 

 

Next return date I have is for 16th September-ish for a weaker MDR storm and 25th September for a more intense Gulf storm. In fact GDM and a few ensembles are hinting at the MDR storm right now

The CAGs are difficult to detect. for some reason ENS keep thinking it might be an EPAC/baja storm... because things seem to favour the EPAC more rn. but watch it flip dramatically I'm telling you innit

I've got about 4-5 return dates for October as well

Is this Gary Lezak stuff?

[BarryStantonGBP]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Is this Gary Lezak stuff?

Yes lad, respect Gazza innit!

What are your thoughts?

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Yes lad, respect Gazza innit!

What are your thoughts?

My thought is that he did pretty well with boldly saying early on the Carolinas would be impacted by Erin. How has he done otherwise as of Sept 7th? Had he made other bold calls?

[BarryStantonGBP]

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

My thought is that he did pretty well with boldly saying early on the Carolinas would be impacted by Erin. How has he done otherwise as of Sept 7th? Had he made other bold calls?

said that if the early September milton window is missed it'll happen in late September instead 

also October will be v active

I am also not buying into the dramatic lowering of the euro weeklies. dont even trust them anymore what about you innit

[WxWatcher007]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 MJOwise, alone, 9/7-21/25 is clearly more favorable than 9/7-21/24. But the MJO is just one factor of many. There’s lots of variation of actual outlines within each MJO phase. The MJO is best treated as a guidance tool rather than a crystal ball.

Yep…just one factor. I don’t think 2025 for my period of expected activity is quite as favorable as 2024. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

said that if the early September milton window is missed it'll happen in late September instead 

also October will be v active

I am also not buying into the dramatic lowering of the euro weeklies. dont even trust them anymore what about you innit

Thanks.

 As I mentioned elsewhere, I think a good portion of the EW lowering in weeks 1-2 is due to the 91L model bust while the powering in week 3 is too far out to be 91L related. 
 
 Regarding trusting them, I don’t trust any model as there’s too much inherent uncertainty especially as one goes out further. But I do use them as tools. I feel that the EW have done reasonably well enough since 2024 regarding the overall big pic/trends that following them at least for trends is probably somewhat useful.

[BarryStantonGBP]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

Thanks.

 As I mentioned elsewhere, I think a good portion of the EW lowering in weeks 1-2 is due to the 91L model bust while the powering in week 3 is too far out to be 91L related. 
 
 Regarding trusting them, I don’t trust any model as there’s too much inherent uncertainty especially as one goes out further. But I do use them as tools. I feel that the EW have done reasonably well enough since 2024 regarding the overall big pic/trends that following them at least for trends is probably somewhat useful.

Yeah I won’t lie but the euro weeklies do seem reactive 

then they also put the massive spike last month right after Erin formed