2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[NorthHillsWx]

5 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Bastardi making the daring prediction that 'the season isn't over' when it's not even September 10th yet lol

I cannot stand him. Used to be one of the best but gave into social media and clicks 

[bigtenfan]

When is the last time on Sept 7 the NHC site showed zero disturbances in the next 7 days.

[BarryStantonGBP]

Joe Bastard said there are similarities with this year and last year with the mjo placements 

only difference was that last year had lower amplitude 

so anyone screeching season cancel should sod off

[yoda]

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1964658176609116561

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[yoda]

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1964683857149493603

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

 

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

When is the last time on Sept 7 the NHC site showed zero disturbances in the next 7 days.

9/7/2015 (see below) was the last 9/7 TWO with no new TCG being considered. However, that was going into a strong El Niño, there was TS Grace then in existence in the E MDR, and the outlooks then went out only 5 rather than 7 days. Also, this TWO failed to see a new TD (which lead to Henri) that formed 9/8-9 in the subtropics:

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Grace, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo_5day/gtwo_archive.php?current_issuance=201509071437&basin=atlc&fdays=2

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Joe Bastard said there are similarities with this year and last year with the mjo placements 

only difference was that last year had lower amplitude 

so anyone screeching season cancel should sod off

Barry,

  I don’t know why JB is saying that. The Sept 2025 MJO (first 7 days plus 2 week forecast through 9/21) looks nothing like 2024!

Sept 2025:

-GEFS: lower to moderate amplitude 2, 3, 2, 1, 8, which is actually favorable

-EPS:  lower to moderate amplitude 2, 3, 2, 1, 8, which is actually favorable

 

Sept 1-21 of 2024 (blue): moderate to high amplitude 4, 5, 6 (not usually favorable unlike what we now have) was like night and day vs 2025:

 

 Perhaps JB is looking further ahead to late Sept-Oct. Regardless, he wants lots of clicks!

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Barry,

  I don’t know why JB is saying that. The Sept 2025 MJO (first 7 days plus 2 week forecast through 9/21) looks nothing like 2024!

Sept 2025:

-GEFS: lower to moderate amplitude 2, 3, 2, 1, 8, which is actually favorable

-EPS:  lower to moderate amplitude 2, 3, 2, 1, 8, which is actually favorable

 

Sept 1-21 of 2024 (blue): moderate to high amplitude 4, 5, 6 (not usually favorable unlike what we now have) was like night and day vs 2025:

 

 Perhaps JB is looking further ahead to late Sept-Oct. Regardless, he wants lots of clicks!

I wonder if this means ironically if hurricane formation would be more favourable in 2025 than last year