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SW VA is starting to dry out.  The drought monitor map has that area as being abnormally dry.  NE TN is definitely dry.  My yard is taking a hit for sure.  We have been equal or greater than 90F for the last six out of seven days.  That is how a drought gets going.  Hopefully next week provides some relief.  We only have had 0.80" of rain during June.  We average 2.70."  It has been two weeks since appreciable rainfall has fallen here.  Combine that with high temps, trouble "could" be brewing later this summer and into fall.   The North Fork of the Holston is definitely getting low...way to early for it to be as low as it is right now.  

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It just does look good for my yard this summer.  I would have to spend a lot of money watering it to keep it somewhat healthy.  The heat & dryness I believe is not going to let up until maybe mid September.  At this point I think im going to focus on my shrubs.  They are new & those I don’t won’t to lose.  I will just have to have over seeding done in the fall.  My fear is we have a bad fire season.  Leaves will fall early if the heat & drought continues.  Long range paints July as brutal.  Ugh. 

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Our yard has had patches since May,its getting worse but at least today we are getting some thunderstorms with some nice  cells producing.So far to me this looks more of a east based NINA into winter,since Mid May the thermocline has warmed and not cooled around 55M,but that dont mean crap right now.Sure looks warm as we head towards the 4th,upper level ridge with a 597 parked above by the GFS,yippee

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1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Our yard has had patches since May,its getting worse but at least today we are getting some thunderstorms with some nice  cells producing.So far to me this looks more of a east based NINA into winter,since Mid May the thermocline has warmed and not cooled around 55M,but that dont mean crap right now.Sure looks warm as we head towards the 4th,upper level ridge with a 597 parked above by the GFS,yippee

Yes thankfully we had a really good storm here today.  I’d say close to an 1” of rain.  Another solid chance of rain Wednesday.  If we can just string together some storms every 3-4 days then maybe it can keep at least some things green for awhile longer. 

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Omaha was hawt Monday night! Of course Tennessee won in the Vols way. Let them almost come back and give fans heart failure.

Likely watered my lawn for the last time of the season too. We have a chance of rain on Wednesday. Then per usual tough love intensifies into July. Might water it one more time, but frequency drops from every other night to every 3-4 nights (longer though). If this crap continues after July 4 it's a lost cause. Declare independence from watering. It'll come back in Sept.

Some of the long-range models and weeklies have temps closer to normal the 3rd week of July. Oh great, when it's hot anyway.

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It's amazing how fast we can go from wet to dry.  We had such a wet start to summer here but after a few weeks of no rain and this heat my grass is crispy. 
 

My family in East NC are saying crops are not doing well and the corn crop is close to collapse. Don't really see much relief in the next week or two besides isolated storms. Maybe one of these fronts on the GFS will bring some widespread rain.

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15 hours ago, John1122 said:

After dipping to 58 this morning, it got up to 89 this afternoon but the lower humidity kept it feeling better than some of the days we had 83-85 degrees with low 70s dps.

Made it from 59 to 97 here yesterday. I think the airport has a decent shot at 100 this afternoon. My grass is toast. I was out of town last week and it didn't get any water. It's bermuda and it's already torched and mostly dormant.

EDIT: It's official. 100 at KCHA this afternoon.

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Crazy the differences in micro climates here.  Large portions of the eastern areas of the forum have been added to the abnormally dry area of the drought monitor and some areas are listed as having initial drought situations.  TRI, until last night, was probably flirting with a top 2-3 all-time, dry June.  TRI’s temps have been much above normal and flirting with exceptionally hot for June.  We sit at 0.81” of rain for the month with overnight total yet to be added.  The average high for the entire month is around 86F which is about +3 for highs.

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Definitely obvious the soil here in Johnson City is dry.  Amazing how brown it is compared to Nashville.  Here moving my son into his apt.  for pharmacy school.  Good to be back in the part of TN I grew up in.  Missed the mountains. 

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Looks like a break from the heat (duration TBD) is on the near horizon.  Meanwhile, the Pac NW is about to fry.....just some crazy, crazy high temps in places that don't normally get that hot.  I really don't like a weather pattern where extreme heat is in the equation.  That pattern seems to often work its way eastward.  I'd love to be able to say the worst of summer is behind us, but I really doubt it.  For now, enjoy the break.  Every week that we get through July without oppressive heat is a win.

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Over the Mountain West(consequence of El Nino winter) and over much of the forum area, the drought monitor has started to light up during the past month.  I suspect much of Oregon is about the be added to this.  Streams in Shenandoah National Park are closed to fishing as some streams are running completely dry in sections - meaning you can walk right across without getting your feet wet.  Hopefully, we see this ease up during the coming couple of weeks over the forum area.  I really don't like where this is headed FWIW.  

Screen_Shot_2024-07-04_at_5.30.59_PM.png

 

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I drove from Nashville to TRI on Monday.  The differences are stark...from green to crispy brown.  You can really tell the areas that missed on storms last week.  One could drive from green to charred grass in about 5-10 miles and then back to green....kind of like that from the Plateau all the way to TRI.  But drought has taken hold during June...I hope that reverses.  I don't really have any reason to think that we see a lot more precip...unless the tropics bail us out or that we can establish an afternoon thunderstorm regime.  Once drought is established, it can be very hard to break it without a tropical system.  

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16 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I drove from Nashville to TRI on Monday.  The differences are stark...from green to crispy brown.  You can really tell the areas that missed on storms last week.  One could drive from green to charred grass in about 5-10 miles and then back to green....kind of like that from the Plateau all the way to TRI.  But drought has taken hold during June...I hope that reverses.  I don't really have any reason to think that we see a lot more precip...unless the tropics bail us out or that we can establish an afternoon thunderstorm regime.  Once drought is established, it can be very hard to break it without a tropical system.  

Sadly the last 2 chances of solid rain have went poof here.  A solid line of storms & rain looked certain to hit mid TN.  Nope it all fell apart.  Sigh.  

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Cool nights and warm days w/ low humidity for YNP.  You all may see some frost in West Yell this week.

As for E TN, two more weeks in the furnace, and then as Jeff noted earlier, a break appears on the horizon.  The new Cansips wants seasonal for August through December.  I still think we see endless summer, but will gladly eat some crow if wrong.  We need to break the drought ASAP or the return to seasonal is going to be very tough to attain in NE TN.  

The TS is going to create very hot temps early in the week.  My general rule of thumb with tropical systems is we don't want to be grazed by them(if we need the rain).  Why?  Sinking air on its periphery creates crazy hot temps - E TN is gonna likely roast without a last minute course change.  Downslope winds during summer are no bueno.  

 

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I see that MRX has noted that rapid onset of drought is possible over much of the forum area this week.  High temps plus very little rainfall is going to cause likely problems.   

1234, yep.  It is really hot during the afternoons.  This reminds me a lot of 1988.

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On 7/7/2024 at 6:55 AM, Carvers Gap said:

Cool nights and warm days w/ low humidity for YNP.  You all may see some frost in West Yell this week.

As for E TN, two more weeks in the furnace, and then as Jeff noted earlier, a break appears on the horizon.  The new Cansips wants seasonal for August through December.  I still think we see endless summer, but will gladly eat some crow if wrong.  We need to break the drought ASAP or the return to seasonal is going to be very tough to attain in NE TN.  

The TS is going to create very hot temps early in the week.  My general rule of thumb with tropical systems is we don't want to be grazed by them(if we need the rain).  Why?  Sinking air on its periphery creates crazy hot temps - E TN is gonna likely roast without a last minute course change.  Downslope winds during summer are no bueno.  

 

Absolutely has been perfect wx here in Yellowstone & Tetons so far.  Now by Wednesday it’s going to be a furnace here also.  93-95 highs.  
I love this area!  

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1 hour ago, Matthew70 said:

Absolutely has been perfect wx here in Yellowstone & Tetons so far.  Now by Wednesday it’s going to be a furnace here also.  93-95 highs.  
I love this area!  

Higher elevations out West are awesome.  Cool mornings and low humidity are the best.  Put Bend, Oregon, on your list.  Similar wx setup with a few more amenities, easy access to the mountains, and less crowds.  The West is cooking this week, but that is pretty abnormal.   We really enjoy the PAC Northwest and Mountain West.  In my book, it gets me one less week of summer.  

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Rain popped up just to my south and will likely miss me barring redevelopment. MRX forecast barely any rain the next 7 days but has thunderstorms in the forecast every day. If you get under one you're likely to get dumped on. 

Because it clouded up, we only made the mid 80s today. 

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RE: Rain from Beryl...

A line of storms tries to advance eastward into Wednesday, but unfortunately, moisture feed and the advancing southerly flow just dwindles and dies. It's not looking all that promising, but perhaps the NE TN Valley can get some isolated development.
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