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The boring season continues here but the first two weeks of Met summer look favorable as far as us not roasting goes. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlook favors BN temps and near to bn precip. 

The first two days of met summer have produced low 70s yesterday and only mid-60s at 1pm here with rainfall both days. 

The countdown is on until the first true cold front of fall. 

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20 hours ago, John1122 said:

The boring season continues here but the first two weeks of Met summer look favorable as far as us not roasting goes. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlook favors BN temps and near to bn precip. 

The first two days of met summer have produced low 70s yesterday and only mid-60s at 1pm here with rainfall both days. 

The countdown is on until the first true cold front of fall. 

Let’s hope a cooler & wetter summer prevails.  
Hopefully October does not torch.  
I feel the wx is unpredictable these days.  I don’t expect much of a winter as in snow.  I am afraid severe wx is going to be the common theme instead.  Hope I’m eating a lot of crow about winter. 

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Wake me up when September comes.. Green Day is timeless.

This thread should probably be pinned. Drop the pin on the Spring thread and put it out of its misery, ha.

Still looks like we can avoid major heat for a good chunk of June. The more weeks we chop off the less miserable summer overall. 

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10 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Wake me up when September comes.. Green Day is timeless.

This thread should probably be pinned. Drop the pin on the Spring thread and put it out of its misery, ha.

Still looks like we can avoid major heat for a good chunk of June. The more weeks we chop off the less miserable summer overall. 

I’m keeping my axe sharp lol!   Cool & rain every few days is fabulous!  My yard says THANK YOU!  My lawnmower says ugh! Love the GREEN! Much better than brown! 

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  • Mr Bob pinned this topic

Nice downpour here this afternoon after missing multiple chances during the past couple of days.  We have done ok w/ rain during the past month after a concerning start around parts of TRI.  We don't have the big totals to our west, but it'll do for now.  Looks like on-and-off rain chances for the next 7-10 days.  Overall, it has been good "garden weather."  That means not too much rain and cool(not cold) overnight temps along w/ warm days.  I have found that slightly dry water amounts is 10x better than too rainy.  This year I am working on watering less and getting plants to extend their roots downward more.

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Had an epic downpour this morning. Another moderate shower this afternoon. Still an 80 percent chance tonight. Zero thunder with these showers the last few days. Yesterday we had a big gust front with strong winds but no thunder. 

 

I'm on the too rainy side of things and my tomato plants are feeling the stress of it. 

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Been a nice early June. Dewpoints are quite lovely today. Feels very comfortable outside.

Unfortunately the gig is up starting about this weekend. Temps will bounce Thursday and Friday, but the humididy might lag a day. This weekend one needs to be near water.

By late June looks like a true heat ridge will be sloshing around the US. Oh goodie!

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1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Also, the GFS is all over the place on temps, mainly due to rain. But the western 2/3rds of the forum area have a lot or BN periods depicted over the next two weeks. The cpc extended maps are deep reds. The GFS has lots of blues and even purples and pinks over the South and Southeast. 

I will take rain every 2-3 days to keep the temps at bay.  I’d love for a wetter than normal summer.  Yes would make it humid but better than oppressive heat & dry.  

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From Ben Noll's site. Long range ECMWF-UKMET superblend indicative of La Niña and AMO+ pattern taking hold by ASO. If this unfolds, expect a dry late summer pattern into autumn. Caveat being any landfalling tropical systems moving inland over the Southeast and Tennessee Valley regions to break potential dry conditions. We're still in a period of transitional ENSO until that time, however. We should still experience periods of frontal boundary precip through June into mid-July, with hot and humid days intermingled by August. How hot and humid remains the question, though. Muggy August and September humidity can still lead to isolated evening thunderstorms, so here's to hoping we avoid any outright drought conditions.90138a6a771de90971ea85d0359d7eb6.jpg
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Well, it would appear that summer is about to get hot about during the timeframe when summer normally gets hot.  I concur w/ extended summer outlooks going well into September and even early October.  BUT, I am just a bit wary(more so than normal) of LR ext modeling right now.  Nina "should" be hot and dry....sometimes really hot and dry IMBY.  As John noted, some Nina summers are actually AN for precip.  The Apps should be drier than normal through winter.  BUT, I am losing confidence that modeling has this nailed down.  Too much jumping around on operationals....really all over the place.  I suspect the eventual net result will be AN temps for an extended period of time, BUT less than confident right now.  This pattern almost feels like it will flip as soon as we go "all in" on hot weather.  TX and Plains' heat ridge combo usually means we get very hot here.  We'll see....

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