phlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 CCB pretty much rides right along the Jersey Shore, 850 stays offshore through 39 except for tip of Suffolk and the Cape. Very similar evolution to 0z...less stacked/wrapped than 6z...about as good as it can get for a heavy snow blitz at the Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This run of the GFS is absolutely insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FYI..looks screwy Looks like Bonnie will bust too far W with that map. I hope she didn't draw it, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What do the soundings look like for this storm, anybody note signals for thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 21 inches of snow for JFK on the Nam http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kjfk.dat Jeez, that same algorithm gives ISP 49". I don't think its a useful number. LE QPF looks high as well: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kisp.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I wouldn't be surprised if it is snowing in NYC by 5am tomorrow morning, a couple of hours earlier in Philly. hr 30 on 12z gfs...mod snow for philly and heavy snow se jersey. Gfs now has a start time between hr 24-27......so looks like the morning for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hr 42 still snowing...low just crawls from 27-42.......1.50 plus for the citys.....more towards the coast.....lehigh valley inch+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 heys guys i think it has some " initiation errors" haha jk.....this run is ablsolutely insane for long island suffock especailly :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What do the soundings look like for this storm, anybody note signals for thundersnow? I'd imagine there's going to be a 2-3"/hr band somewhere along the coast w/ a bombing sub 980mb low getting captured offshore. Incredible dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 <br />This run of the GFS is absolutely insane<br /><br /><br /><br />John - I've never seen a 500 mb depiction like this. It's unfreakin believable. The dynamics are almost beyond comprehension Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 MERRY CHRISTMAS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hot damn, this gives central NJ two feet verbatim. Insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Uhhh, it puts down 1.25" of liquid in 6 hours along the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 :snowman: Still snowing too, wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The only thing I don't like is the western side gradient. That's one hell of a cut-off again. We dealt with this last year as well, and lately we always seem to be on the fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 75-80 knots at 850 mb at hour 39 centered right over NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This run of the GFS is absolutely insane Is this a CNJ/NYC/LI special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I will take 1.25+ with decent ratios up here.. I likey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Gkrangers - can you say snowed in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looks like at hour 42, it's just south of Montauk and Block Island at 974. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_042l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Boy, NCEP really likes to build the drama with the time in between frames. Literally on the edge of my seat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The only thing I don't like is the western side gradient. That's one hell of a cut-off again. We dealt with this last year as well, and lately we always seem to be on the fence. Yep....if you're in western Montco/Chester/Berks/Schuylkill/Lancaster, etc. there's going to be a gradient somewhere in there between 2" and 8" over 20-25 miles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Based upon what you guys are saying this is 12/19/09 - snow totals for Long Island - all over again... But this time with lots of wind... This is beginning to scare the **** out of me! Oh ya, CNJ gets CRUSHED!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Gkrangers - can you say snowed in? I'm supposed to drive to DC Tuesday. Depends how fast we get dug out! Start time is 24-30 hours, gotta be a lock now, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WOW! im speechless, just amazing nothing like getting whacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I almost just had a heart attack in excitement when I saw the 12z GFS. For those in Monmouth/Ocean Counties.. 2.00qpf + with 1.25 of it in 6 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 long island looks like snow totals would be close to 2' feet as well, especially in suffolk with the winds its gonna be insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I almost just had a heart attack in excitement when I saw the 12z GFS. For those in Monmouth/Ocean Counties.. 2.00qpf + with 1.25 of it in 6 hours! I have no problem with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think there's a very high likelihood of thundersnow and some extremely heavy (3"+ per hour) snow rates in places. Just look at the dynamics as the low closes off at 500mb, just insane. Omegas look extremely favorable as well. Tomorrow's going to be one incredibly dynamic and exciting day. And the storm slides just a bit east so the worry for dryslots/rain is gone. Definitely a likelihood for blizzard conditions along the coast as well, I'm surprised blizzard watches aren't up for the area. The beaches are going to take an incredible pounding, and there's almost certainly going to be coastal flood concerns for some of the back bays and the Long Island Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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