NJwinter23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The way this storm was lost, and then came back sharply in the short range with HECS totals reminds me a lot of the Jan. 22-24th 2005 super clipper. This was much more sudden though, I still cannot believe my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 something is wrong with the absurd ratios...it gives islip 49 inches!!!! even at 10:1 it gives islip over 20 inches with more than 2 inches liquid equiv. At some hours the ratios are extremely high and thats expected with this type of air mass. Not to say it will verify but I always thought 14:1 or 16:1 was good for this just inland making NJ and the SE Upstate NY the real winners here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The way this storm was lost, and then came back sharply in the short range with HECS totals reminds me a lot of the Jan. 22-24th 2005 super clipper. This was much more sudden though, I still cannot believe my eyes Even PDII was not well forecast up until 2 days before...the ETA at the time had it cutting into PA with rain the morning before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Jan '96 snow started early sunday morning, a few hours ahead of schedule. I remember the forecast on Saturday was for 6 to 10" by monday morning with more to follow but much heavier amounts to the south. Most places had reached those totals and then some by late sunday afternoon. Point being, they aren't going to go from next to nothing to blizzard and 20" accumulations immediately so makes sense that they are stressing the significance of the storm but still playing it a bit safe just in case there is an eastward shift. Not likely but after this week would anyone be shocked? Most of the major snow events were playing catchup late the day before on the amounts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 At some hours the ratios are extremely high and thats expected with this type of air mass. Not to say it will verify but I always thought 14:1 or 16:1 was good for this just inland making NJ and the SE Upstate NY the real winners here. islip is on long island, the south shore, and the ratios go above 20:1...that is absurd and not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 21 inches of snow for JFK on the Nam http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kjfk.dat Wow, EWR is nearly half of that at 12. Quite a steep drop-off for about 25 miles west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This sounds to me alot like a reverse of the 2001 non-event which all the models showed a massive storm for I-95 which eventually ended up in NY and PA. I remember them closing the school in advance for two days here in Morris County only to get 2" total in two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 CNN's snow map has the big amounts well inland...rain for Eastern Long Island and SW Conn. Around 2"-4" for NYC They must think this comes wayyyy west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 islip is on long island, the south shore, and the ratios go above 20:1...that is absurd and not going to happen. thats why I said, ( not that it will verify but ratios of 14:1 and 16:1 are reasonable, especially inland. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huntingtonwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm in Huntington on the North shore of long island. worried about the dry slot. someone said the dry slot is if you are between the 700 mb low and the surface low. do u know if Nassau/suffolk border is in that zone? can someone post the 700mb and surface map next to each other please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z GFS about the same as 6z so far. Trough digging a bit more and the low is a little faster, but those differences are very small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z GFS about the same as 6z so far. Trough digging a bit more and the low is a little faster, but those differences are very small. yeah, looks a lot like 0z (hr 24) at hr 12 fwiw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I don't know what's happening in Philly and NYC, but down in Middletown, DE south of the Canal, we've got flurries at 10:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 CNN's snow map has the big amounts well inland...rain for Eastern Long Island and SW Conn. Around 2"-4" for NYC They must think this comes wayyyy west For the most accurate forecasts I only trust the NWS website. Granted they are staying conservative at the moment and their is disagreement between Mt. Holly and Upton, especially along eastern NJ. As long as the models hold server at 12Z, likely we start seeing some warnings in the delmarva and south jersey. Totals will probably be based on the 12z EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I don't know what's happening in Philly and NYC, but down in Middletown, DE south of the Canal, we've got flurries at 10:30. not the main course starting up...upper energy working through...main course starts tomorrow am for the DE crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Even PDII was not well forecast up until 2 days before...the ETA at the time had it cutting into PA with rain the morning before. Aboslutely (I didnt know about the rain part on the ETA though ). At least that was a HECS though just missing us to the south PDII and remember a lot of folks thought it had a great chance of coming north in the short-range. 2005 and especially this storm though, we were left for dead within 2 days, no real storm anywhere, it just wasnt developing on the models up until yestedray evening (and let's have a toast for the 12z GFS and its bad data lol scoring the coup). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 yeah, looks a lot like 0z (hr 24) at hr 12 fwiw... It looks more like 0z than 6z at hour 24. The low is a little farther east of 6z but in the same location as 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey Snow can you do the analysis on the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 21 inches of snow for JFK on the Nam http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kjfk.dat LOL, that same link for ISP puts down 49.3" of snow, comical. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kisp.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FYI..looks screwy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS almost exactly like 0z with SLP placement. Haven't looked at QPF yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 30 on 12z gfs...mod snow for philly and heavy snow se jersey. Gfs now has a start time between hr 24-27......so looks like the morning for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FYI..looks screwy Haha wtf!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 33 .5+ from phl-nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LVBlizzard, post the MM5 when it comes out, that model is very good with bands and trends.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FYI..looks screwy Haha wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow!! The upper divergence is simply unreal at 36. Never seen anything like it. The forcing is gonna be insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FYI..looks screwy WTH?? Is she for real??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 36 inch plus from phl-nyc.....more se of there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS absolutely buries monmouth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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