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May 2024 General Discussion


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2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

for Sunday: Although the 30% is Mid-South, the surface low and associated boundaries could very well be Illinois to Indiana. I'd love the WF to be north of I-70. At least I-64. Outflow will likely be in the Mid-South but that's hideous chase terrain. 

If the atmosphere can recover from morning rain and storms, instability should get north into IL/IN which is already 15%. SPC could be waiting for confidence on Atmo recovery and then destabilization farther north. Their 'concerning pattern' language is notable. 

image.png.4c0c4f5e1aae8350faa457af4568349e.png

One thing to consider as well is that the Indy 500 is Sunday (I'll be attending as usual). Optimistic that morning rain will clear out in time for the 12:45 green flag and stay clear while instability grows for later in the afternoon. But, anyone chasing in Indiana will likely see packed interstates with 300,000 in attendance.

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1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

1.2" of much needed rain, everything is lush and green.  Looks like some snow could skirt the northern portion of L Superior tonight.

Looking off my backyard deck, 17 days ago vs today.  60 to 75% leaf out.

438275914_423324717108667_7803667126158666158_n.jpg.37c9caf08a4e5fd9d722b05b4e6faf43.jpg

 

 

thumbnail (1).jpg

What tree species are we looking at here? Are these oaks?  Are there any white ash? And if so, any leaves?

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6 hours ago, Lightning said:

While I love t-storms, I really don't really mind missing the very destructive & tornadic ones.

Not surprised by the results at all.  This system was too far west for southern MI.

Don’t really want severe IMBY either, but a 50 dbz cell overhead with some CGs would sure be nice.

 

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19 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Don’t really want severe IMBY either, but a 50 dbz cell overhead with some CGs would sure be nice.

 

Exactly CGs (hence my profile pic). I see yours has updated appropriately too :thumbsup: I also love the heavy rainfalls as I don't have flooding concerns really (it would need to be a Noah level event).  

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2 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Exactly CGs (hence my profile pic). I see yours has updated appropriately too :thumbsup: I also love the heavy rainfalls as I don't have flooding concerns really (it would need to be a Noah level event).  

Ponding issues are bigger here if it rains hard in March or April.  I have had my lawn puddle seep into the basement before, but its always March or April.  By May it seems like the grass just sucks it up and grows a foot.  It might just be that the thin layer of muddy clay over the mostly sandy soil gets more porous as soon as it gets warmer.

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1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

These are maple but there's plenty of ash and they're leafing out as well but well behind, maybe 20% leaf out.

Wow, I'm pretty shocked. I would have never thought your location in the Huron Mountains of the Upper Peninsula would have that many leaves already.

When I look at the phenological reports from the Weather Bureau's Monthly Weather Review, you seem further along than northern Ohio used to be in the early 20th century, with the first White Ash leaves not being noted until the last week or so of May into early June. Even elm were just coming into leaf. Crazy how much that's changed in the past 100 years.

1907

image.png.07dd287a8e1e2fac63c97ee0e1ca3bb7.pngimage.png.ac823f590d932fc69b04cd2f9b5e3c7b.png

1908

image.png.9587f48c8b6a8f68bb2d17bc9356d837.pngimage.png.1d557e23b3b8b4123a77a168e9050d59.png

 

 

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2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

These are maple but there's plenty of ash and they're leafing out as well but well behind, maybe 20% leaf out.

 

9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow, I'm pretty shocked. I would have never thought your location in the Huron Mountains of the Upper Peninsula would have that many leaves already.

When I look at the phenological reports from the Weather Bureau's Monthly Weather Review, you seem further along than northern Ohio used to be in the early 20th century, with the first White Ash leaves not being noted until the last week or so of May into early June. Even elm were just coming into leaf. Crazy how much that's changed in the past 100 years.

1907

image.png.07dd287a8e1e2fac63c97ee0e1ca3bb7.pngimage.png.ac823f590d932fc69b04cd2f9b5e3c7b.png

1908

image.png.9587f48c8b6a8f68bb2d17bc9356d837.pngimage.png.1d557e23b3b8b4123a77a168e9050d59.png

 

 

I mean 1904, even far southern Ohio didn't have ash leaves until the second to third week of May. Blows my mind. 

image.png.89f0f8d2f40d98ffeaeec2d1e0201131.png

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16 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow, I'm pretty shocked. I would have never thought your location in the Huron Mountains of the Upper Peninsula would have that many leaves already.

When I look at the phenological reports from the Weather Bureau's Monthly Weather Review, you seem further along than northern Ohio used to be in the early 20th century, with the first White Ash leaves not being noted until the last week or so of May into early June. Even elm were just coming into leaf. Crazy how much that's changed in the past 100 years.

1907

image.png.07dd287a8e1e2fac63c97ee0e1ca3bb7.pngimage.png.ac823f590d932fc69b04cd2f9b5e3c7b.png

1908

image.png.9587f48c8b6a8f68bb2d17bc9356d837.pngimage.png.1d557e23b3b8b4123a77a168e9050d59.png

 

 

As someone who works for a utility dealing with trees I find this bit of data fascinating!

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Amazing morning and day, it was already 21C at 7am with a humidex. Great cloud watching and very breezy to windy. Its so dynamic that it was near overcast at 10:30am with drops of rain but quickly moved on before noon. High of 29C. All the storms blowing up just to my east as usual which if fine by me - don't want this perfect day spoiled. This stretch has been wonderful, making up for the crummy first half of May.

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4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

I mean 1904, even far southern Ohio didn't have ash leaves until the second to third week of May. Blows my mind. 

image.png.89f0f8d2f40d98ffeaeec2d1e0201131.png

Don’t get your panties in a bunch.  In general, things seem about 2 weeks ahead of last year. I have seen it this early, and just as late as well. 2015 didn’t have a full canopy until June 10th ish.

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3 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Don’t get your panties in a bunch.  In general, things seem about 2 weeks ahead of last year. I have seen it this early, and just as late as well. 2015 didn’t have a full canopy until June 10th ish.

Spring 2015 was awful.  I remember there were flakes falling here around the middle of May when foliage was like 75% open. 

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5 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

High winds last evening and last night were solid across the area.

ORD had a peak wind gust of 58MPH.

I don’t know what the speed was here but it was strong for this time of year (outside of a thunderstorm). The cold front that came through during the morning sounded like a November gale, but with late spring warmth.  Weird system.

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17 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

 

I mean 1904, even far southern Ohio didn't have ash leaves until the second to third week of May. Blows my mind. 

image.png.89f0f8d2f40d98ffeaeec2d1e0201131.png

That seems very late for Southern Ohio (even in 1904). We are about 2 weeks ahead of schedule here in Northeast Ohio. The Black Locust are the latest to leaf out this year. There are very few, if any, Ash trees remaining. Total devastation from the ash borer. 

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8 minutes ago, NEOH said:

That seems very late for Southern Ohio (even in 1904). We are about 2 weeks ahead of schedule here in Northeast Ohio. The Black Locust are the latest to leaf out this year. There are very few, if any, Ash trees remaining. Total devastation from the ash borer. 

The late leaf out reported that year is consistent with the temperature data, though. 1904 was one of the coldest years to date on record.

Dayton - only 1978 cooler

image.png.e381414583c7284eca81838ebb6ea84b.png

Cleveland - only 1875 & 1885 cooler, tied with 1912

image.png.dd5a74b78586de3d884473eaf0c9a1b8.png

1907 is an interesting case (shown above for a few northern locations). Some tree species leafed out early, especially in the south. But the late blooming ash did not leaf out until mid to late May in most places. I looked at the temperature data, and there was a significant warm spell in late March (not as intense as 2012, but still quite warm), but then April and May were way below modern averages. 

Marquette in @weatherbo's territory has been nearly as warm in 2024, as Cleveland in 1904.

image.png.b6b4e8b9e8699d6f759ec67195b876b8.png

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On 5/22/2024 at 2:31 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow, I'm pretty shocked. I would have never thought your location in the Huron Mountains of the Upper Peninsula would have that many leaves already.

When I look at the phenological reports from the Weather Bureau's Monthly Weather Review, you seem further along than northern Ohio used to be in the early 20th century, with the first White Ash leaves not being noted until the last week or so of May into early June. Even elm were just coming into leaf. Crazy how much that's changed in the past 100 years.

1907

image.png.07dd287a8e1e2fac63c97ee0e1ca3bb7.pngimage.png.ac823f590d932fc69b04cd2f9b5e3c7b.png

1908

image.png.9587f48c8b6a8f68bb2d17bc9356d837.pngimage.png.1d557e23b3b8b4123a77a168e9050d59.png

 

 

That is really interesting, good find!

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