April 2024

[nycsnow]

Models continue to insist on a solid wind event 

[psv88]

0.79” already. 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.14" of rain for the day here.

[nycsnow]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
429 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

CTZ009>012-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-032100-
/O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0003.240403T1500Z-240404T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0002.240403T1500Z-240404T1000Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern
New London-Hudson-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern
Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
429 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey,
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and
avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution
if you must drive.

&&

$$

[Big Jims Videos]

Thunderstorm woke me up here at the beach.  

[MJO812]

42 and heavy rain here in Brooklyn 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But if you go by the numbers we had hotter years (more 90 degree days) back in the 90s-- certainly more record number of 90 degree day summers.  I guess record warmth is more about the mins now, all the excessive rainfall is blunting record highs now.

All this excessive rainfall is worse than record heat, flooding kills more people than heat does, and also results in the spread of disease (via mosquitoes) and results in the buildup of toxic mold and higher rates of allergies.

The record rainfall last summer kept the 90° days in check. But we have seen many more top 10 years for 90° days since 2010 than we ever did in the past. The reason you feel like we are seeing less 90° days now is due to your location. The heatwaves since the 15-16 super El Niño have featured more onshore flow due to the higher pressures east of New England. So places like JFK get the sea breeze earlier in the day and miss the 90s while areas just to the west get the excessive number of 90° days. We are getting to the point where we need washouts during the summer and spring just in order to avoid record heat like we are currently seeing. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	54	0
2	2022	49	0
-	1993	49	0
3	1988	43	0
4	2021	41	0
-	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
5	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0
6	1994	39	0
-	1944	39	0
7	2005	37	0
-	1987	37	0
8	2018	36	0
-	1949	36	0
9	2015	35	0
10	1961	34	0

[qg_omega]

Not understanding the HWW

[Rtd208]

Pouring here. 

Picked up 0.46" of rain so far today.

Storm total so far 1.60"

[Brian5671]

33 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Not understanding the HWW

Often over done honestly.

[bluewave]

Another example of how ridiculously amplified this pattern is. Record ridge NW of Hawaii…record trough to our west…and record blocking west of Greenland. 

 

[jm1220]

Sounded like some sleet pellets mixed in with this shower. 

[qg_omega]

27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Often over done honestly.

We have a strong inversion and cold temps, what am I missing

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

We have a strong inversion and cold temps, what am I missing

The only difference is the winds are straight out of the east...usually we see these HHW with S or SE winds.  There's a map in the NE thread showing winds 60mph for CT shore and LI but again likely overdone.

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The only difference is the winds are straight out of the east...usually we see these HHW with S or SE winds.  There's a map in the NE thread showing winds 60mph for CT shore and LI but again likely overdone.

More worried about the coastal flood threat again. Hopefully that’s overdone too. The beaches/bays can’t take any more of it. 

[bluewave]

Areas near the shore could see gusts near 60 mph since there is a 50KT flag just beneath the inversion. 
 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Not understanding the HWW

Strong easterly jet ahead of secondary. Powerful winds near inversion.

What's not to get

[Big Jims Videos]

The models show a narrow corridor of strong winds for a few hours basically from Barnegat Light to Raritan Bay for NJ and points northeast.  Things get cranking around 12/1 p.m. 

[MJO812]

33 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

We have a strong inversion and cold temps, what am I missing

Strong cutter 

[nycsnow]

33 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

We have a strong inversion and cold temps, what am I missing

Upton-

winds.

Most 00Z model guidance is showing a strong LLJ anywhere from 60
to 70 kts at 925mb. Bufkit soundings show a pretty high
inversion with a lot of the strong winds from the LLJ both above
and below it, so its likely a lot of the strong winds will mix
down to the surface

[nycsnow]

Most models have the strongest winds 2pm-10pm or so 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Strong easterly jet ahead of secondary. Powerful winds near inversion.

What's not to get

The High Wind Wanring is one thing, the additional warning to stay in your basement and away from your windows almost sounds like it would be for a Tornado or Hurricane?

[snowman19]

As expected….massive fail incoming for the CMC suite with the snow fantasies it kept insisting on, run after run. Embarrassing 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As expected….massive fail incoming for the CMC suite with the snow fantasies it kept insisting on, run after run 

The CMC has had one of the worst cold biases of any model this past winter. It’s also been very erratic at times. So better to just use the Euro and GFS suites longer range and then models like HRRR ,HREF, RGEM ..etc within 24-36 hrs. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As expected….massive fail incoming for the CMC suite with the snow fantasies it kept insisting on, run after run. Embarrassing 

 

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As expected….massive fail incoming for the CMC suite with the snow fantasies it kept insisting on, run after run. Embarrassing 

Boston will be pushing 3 years on its last snowfall of 4 inches or more next winter 

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The CMC has one of the worst cold biases of any model this past winter. 

I sure has, way worse than the GFS. I still can’t believe some mets actually ran with it and its bogus projections for this week

[JetsPens87]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

We have a strong inversion and cold temps, what am I missing

The low level jet underneath the inversion. 

And...cold temps? Not sure where that comes into play honestly.

[JetsPens87]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I sure has, way worse than the GFS. I still can’t believe some mets actually ran with it and its bogus projections for this week

Never entertained it once

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Boston will be pushing 3 years on its last snowfall of 4 inches or more next winter 

Unreal.   Even here I had two 6 inches snowfalls in each of the last 2 horrid winters

[JetsPens87]

Those CMC runs that showed the fantasy snow over NY metro had the primary as far E as Cleveland.

 

It's winding up over Green Bay. This was recognizable with the models keying in on a stronger WAR (as they had all season long). That primary had no route to come further E at that point...and that's not a recipe for snow around here in January let alone April.