Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

April 2024


 Share

Recommended Posts

22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Basically a cutter with a late developing coastal-would have been rain even in January

Yep. Best of luck getting a snowstorm in the metro area with a very strong primary low cutting that far north before coastal redevelopment takes over. This is an all rain event

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Basically a cutter with a late developing coastal-would have been rain even in January

Things have really trended away from an earlier transfer and stronger costal storm. This is now just a week of miserable weather 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Things have really trended away from an earlier transfer and stronger costal storm. This is now just a week of miserable weather 

Soil moisture is over 120% of normal right now and all the rivers, lakes, streams and reservoirs are at capacity. The last thing we need is more rain but here it comes again 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Keep in mind you're reading the New England forum and he's talking about positioning. Not emphatically endorsing the CMC Ptypes for NY Metro. Context.

I am well aware that dude. I don't need to be told that. But thank you. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
  • Weenie 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Keep in mind you're reading the New England forum and he's talking about positioning. Not emphatically endorsing the CMC Ptypes for NY Metro. Context.

I would argue that even for interior central New England, this is not a snowstorm, not with a juiced up primary low cutting that far north

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I would argue that even for interior central New England, this is not a snowstorm, not with a juiced up primary low cutting that far north

If you're not under a potential CCB significant accumulations are going to be tough if not for higher elevations in NNE.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

I remember this storm well. We got 8-9 inches. Incredibly cold and windy day. 

Yup. I remember lots of sleet at my location in Monmouth county before a flip to snow. The days leading up to that were in the 60’s 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This was obvious

it wasn't obvious but shows it has been showing this for several days now.........and a real Meteorologist Typhoon Tip likes how the model is handling this setup.....

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
  • Weenie 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

it wasn't obvious but shows it has been showing this for several days now.........and a real Meteorologist Typhoon Tip likes how the model is handling this setup.....

A storm with a primary that tracks to Buffalo or Lake Huron will never be good for anything here other than heavy rain and a dry slot. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

A storm with a primary that tracks to Buffalo or Lake Huron will never be good for anything here other than heavy rain and a dry slot. 

Real Meteorologist Typhoon Tip also said he likes CMC in Neg NAO and AO episodes but in this instance an ensemble blend is best to use.

CMC is erroneously seeing something (but trending away from) the earlier transfer idea.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

A storm with a primary that tracks to Buffalo or Lake Huron will never be good for anything here other than heavy rain and a dry slot. 

Yeah, these -NAO patterns have been changing in recent years. They have tended to link up with the Southeast ridge more. My guess is that it’s related to the record Atlantic SSTs and possibly other marine heatwaves across the planet. We have seen how models have been underestimating this factor longer range. So storm systems start out days 6-10 more suppressed and colder only to correct more north or northwest and warmer under 5 days. I know people follow the model headline scores for the Northern Hemisphere. But this issue near the East Coast isn’t something that shows up in these model forecast statistics. So we have to take this model bias into account when looking at longer range forecasts.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, these -NAO patterns have been changing in recent years. They have tended to link up with the Southeast ridge more. My guess is that it’s related to the record Atlantic SSTs and possibly other marine heatwaves across the planet. We have seen how models have been underestimating this factor longer range. So storm systems start out days 6-10 more suppressed and colder only to correct more north or northwest and warmer under 5 days. I know people follow the model headline scores for the Northern Hemisphere. But this issue near the East Coast isn’t something that shows up in these model forecast statistics. So we have to take this model bias into account when looking at longer range forecasts.

I was just going to ask you this, why are these primary storms with lows going to Buffalo becoming more common now?

What happened to our Miller A's the real coastal snowstorms?

I hate Miller B's..... even in winter we usually get the backside from them.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

No one here should have been tracking this storm for snow. It was always for heavy rain and strong winds. Not even sure how that will play out now. 

The storm bombs out further north now on the models. Expect a dreary week.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

I remember this storm well. We got 8-9 inches. Incredibly cold and windy day. 

I think you guys southwest of us got more snow than we did.  Farmartin's page indicates the same thing.  6-8 inches of snow for central NJ and 1-2 inches here.  You also got 6-8 inches of snow in April 1996.  We did okay on Long Island with that one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I was just going to ask you this, why are these primary storms with lows going to Buffalo becoming more common now?

What happened to our Miller A's the real coastal snowstorms?

I hate Miller B's..... even in winter we usually get the backside from them.

 

A stronger WAR in recent history hasn't helped.

 

Bluewave is likely right about it being fueled by ever warmer SSTs

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

it wasn't obvious but shows it has been showing this for several days now.........and a real Meteorologist Typhoon Tip likes how the model is handling this setup.....

The CMC kept showing the primary further south than the other models which showed a favorable transfer and a solution for our area while the other models were showing the opposite. 

I thought we had a small chance with the strong blocking but nothing has been working out for us. 

This is a NNE snowstorm

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Real Meteorologist Typhoon Tip also said he likes CMC in Neg NAO and AO episodes but in this instance an ensemble blend is best to use.

CMC is erroneously seeing something (but trending away from) the earlier transfer idea.

Walt Dragg also uses the CMC for his forecasting.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...