Typhoon Tip Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 2 hours ago, Henry's Weather said: Big neg NAO reducing, PNA pumping. There’s a shot at something for sure PNA is falling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Toss the 0z run obviously, but in the .01% chance those totals did verify, I'd obviously be climbing to the top of the sagamore bridge with that type of gradient 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 I need to cancel the subscriptions today so I don't get charged for tracking drizzle in April. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: PNA is falling Incredible how much time I have saved since disengaging in mid Februay....grand total since........... 1". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 People can post all of the pretty charts and H5 plots they would like, at the end of the day the month is like +5 with just about zero snowfall throughout most of SNE. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Near 8.5" on the month. Lets get a foot. All rain. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 March 2012 was a monthly analog of mine, albeit not the primary one...1973 was. The truth is that I needed the colder shift to have a prayer of verifying and my range of +2 to +4 will probably still end up too cool. I'll do the monthly recap this weekend...should be rather short and (not) sweet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: March 2012 was a monthly analog of mine, albeit not the primary one...1973 was. The truth is that I needed the colder shift to have a prayer of verifying and my range of +2 to +4 will probably still end up too cool. I'll do the monthly recap this weekend...should be rather short and (not) sweet. I'm at +4 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm at +4 here. Hopefully a nice tropical season en route...would love to have a tent city in Tolland by October 1. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 SREFS maiking this week interesting again 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully a nice tropical season en route...would love to have a tent city in Tolland by October 1. I thought climate change meant we have the climo of DC. This is like fucking Vancouver. Depressing AF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Why dude? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Poor Ineedsnow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: March 2012 was a monthly analog of mine, albeit not the primary one...1973 was. The truth is that I needed the colder shift to have a prayer of verifying and my range of +2 to +4 will probably still end up too cool. I'll do the monthly recap this weekend...should be rather short and (not) sweet. March 10 is a much better fit. It's not just about temps. Example ORH where month Ave is closer to 10 and precip as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 59 minutes ago, dendrite said: So what’s the difference between wxbell’s kuchie and everyone else’s other than JB’s shrunken roid raged weenie ? Just to be accurate it snows for 44 hrs on that run why post 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathernoob335 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Our best chance is early next week, just my unprofessional opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Poor Ineedsnow. Lol beefed up and came west at 9z .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: March 10 is a much better fit. It's not just about temps. Example ORH where month Ave is closer to 10 and precip as well. I had 2010 in there twice, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Lol beefed up and came west at 9z .. Still needs a lot of work....you want to see legit rates in this thermal profile. There's a scenario where the low pressure develops along the front and gives us decent precip on Friday in the CCB, but it remains mostly rain because it steady light/moderate precip and not good rates. 06z NAM kind of showed this...decent precip in the CCB but mostly rain with just some sloppy snow over the hills...maybe an inch or two in a scenario like that but also could just be white rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Just to be accurate it snows for 44 hrs on that run why post 24 I’m comparing 24hr maps valid the same time to show they don’t match up. Idc if it snows for 300 hours. It’s all clown trash. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Just like the 12z HRRR clowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’m comparing 24hr maps valid the same time to show they don’t match up. Idc if it snows for 300 hours. It’s all clown trash. Lock It in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What you are engaging is drizzle I’d be a fool to expect otherwise, but there does exist some opportunity for an event somewhere. Obvious caveat: it is April, chances of something appreciable in SNE are sub 5% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Ha nam flipping LI to snow 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 It's close ( all hating and despising aside...) re April 3rd-ish Henry's chart above is remarkably consistent, as well ..shared with only irrelevant differences between the EPS/GEFS/GEPS ensemble means. In all --> a deep coupled response to that western limb -NAO you see over the D. Straight, should evolve nearby our lat/lon - that is the teleconnector incarnate. That's just a 101 interpretation that cannot really be argued. The problems with it are obviously A... the lateness and climate but excusing that obviousness for moment ( we've have blizzards in early April before, anyway - ) ...the heights in the west and how they transiently balance against the heights between the GOM and off the SE U.S. coast, are preventative. The GEFs mean for dailies is actually a very good fit on the 06z, taking a strong primary up the ST Seaway to about Watertown NY ..then, forcing a secondary E of PWM ... because it compromises the -NAO forcing a storm S, while also negotiating those heigher heights underneath/foundation of all that scaffolding down in the deep S/SE. It can change... a little more western ridging would help. But, I also suspect the entire 35N band around the entire hemisphere/planet on both sides of the Equator, being some 3 to 7 dm higher than they were 50 years ago ... would continue to impose resistance even if those mid latitude features became better aligned. The flow would compress, not "yield" in that sense... and compression speeds up the flow - it's basically just that the lower latitudes are destructively interfering. Complex... For now, we need the Pac --> N/A flow structure not be going into a -PNA mode, while these other inhibitors are going on, before we can be more confident in a finale bomb. I will say though that the 2nd week of April, the seasonal 'flash' is now showing up on the guidance across the board. It's probable any 1st week system would be the season's mortality gasp in the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Well the NAM is one way to get a blue bomb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Well the NAM is one way to get a blue bomb. That run is hilarious. Congrats GON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Well the NAM is one way to get a blue bomb. I actually don't have problem with it. Blues have odd behaviors - difficult to pin point that sort of thing. It's probably more of an homage to general possibility ...less 'where' exactly that happens. In fact, I can imagine the cackles and ridicule over the NAM this and that ... all the while missing that point. We're still technically reeling off that pretty crazy late season -EPO last week. It's modulated(ing) positive, but the loading takes time to extinguish - at this time of year, these indexes sometimes reflect more so in the mid level thermal complexion. If we look at that 850s mb, it doens't appear like there's warm problem to this thing being a kind of red flag - Although heh... anyone that thinks this week's been warm at the surface is probably trying to sell snow to Eskimos. I'm just saying ... that's why spring blue bombs happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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