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2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


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Banking on the NAM for some ~GV around here at sunset. That'd be a great. Also planning to take a trip to Central Indiana tomorrow coincidentally to pick up a salvaged fender to replace the one that I got crushed by a tornado last April. It'd be nice to at least catch some cool clouds on the way back, let alone any noteworthy severe threat to navigate through.

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Yup...NAM tease. The lack of prior support from the globals was always a red flag, although one can hope.
NAM'med, as they say. If I had the power to get two changes in NCEP modeling done tomorrow, I'd discontinue the NAM and only have 24 hours of publicly available CAM data (and RAP data).


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Quote

There will be time for airmass recovery in western Ohio/eastern
Indiana later this afternoon and evening, with model consensus
of lower 60s dewpoints advecting in along and south. A pretty
concerning supercell environment is depicted with a mid level
jet streak providing ample deep layer shear, low level curvature
in the hodographs, and deep instability. Supercell mode is
possible if not likely, thus threats in terms of impact seem to
maximize in the 5P-11P timeframe in southeast Indiana, western
Ohio possibly as far east as central Ohio with large hail and a
a tornado or two.

 

Full disco:

Per a very stable / consistent signal in the past 4-6 HRRR runs, expect this convective line to continue to move east-northeast and into the ILN forecast area early this afternoon (1-2PM) and then steadily east and out of the area by 5 PM. A concern here is the ambient boundary layer in front of these storms is not moist, with dewpoints in the 40s, which will slowly increase into the mid 50s ahead of the line. This may temper storm intensity somewhat, but on the flip side the inverted-v type soundings seen in the HRRR/NAM in front of this line will augment mixing of stronger convective winds to the surface. Low level shear is adequate, but lacks curvature in the 0-1km layer, and is more impressive on 0-3km layer where SRH is in excess of 250m2/s2. So there will be a potential for line-embedded mesovortices for optimally oriented segments of the line to the low level shear vector, but it is noted that the vector is somewhat line-parallel, which may keep mesovortex formation much more isolated. Something also showing up in numerous CAMS is the potential for a southern tail supercell with strong updraft helicity swath somewhere in vicinity of the Ohio River or just north mid-late afternoon. This seems plausible, and needs to be watched for a larger hail threat or more localized brief tornado threat. The signal has been in most HRRR runs, and many of the other 14.00Z runs. There will be time for airmass recovery in western Ohio/eastern Indiana later this afternoon and evening, with model consensus of lower 60s dewpoints advecting in along and south. A pretty concerning supercell environment is depicted with a mid level jet streak providing ample deep layer shear, low level curvature in the hodographs, and deep instability. Supercell mode is possible if not likely, thus threats in terms of impact seem to maximize in the 5P-11P timeframe in southeast Indiana, western Ohio possibly as far east as central Ohio with large hail and a a tornado or two.

Unusually bullish from ILN. 

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This pattern is tiring folks out here in Northern Ohio week after week. It's like every two weeks it's the same thing. First we get beautiful weather, then a cold front ruins it but stresses us all out thinking we're gonna have bad storms. Then they usually aren't half as bad as the local mets think (atleast near Cleveland area), and then it's cold for a week. Rinse and repeat.

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11 minutes ago, nwohweather said:


Tornado possible in Findlay. I forgot how bad the radar coverage was there

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
703 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

OHC063-142315-
/O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240314T2315Z/
Hancock OH-
703 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL HANCOCK COUNTY...

At 703 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Vanlue, or 7
miles east of Findlay, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
east central Hancock County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4105 8342 4099 8342 4099 8346 4095 8346
      4095 8348 4093 8348 4096 8357 4106 8358
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 276DEG 38KT 4101 8349

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
 
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east of Celina OH now

Quote

At 711 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near St. Marys, moving east at 45 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. Auglaize County EMA
         reported a tornado producing damage.

 

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