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2024 Valentines Day Rain/Snow/Who The Hell Knows Thread


WinterWxLuvr
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1 hour ago, Ji said:

Gefs way south

b4264075337bbdfdc65fec7936c16e7b.jpg

Not a member above the mason dixon.  It is less than 5 days and it hasn’t shown a run without any snow in the ma in like 10 runs.  I have never in my life seen the euro trend toward the gfs when we need it to.  Maybe just maybe this will be the miracle and the euro caves here in about 30 minutes 

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6 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Not sure if anyone has it faster but the low is maybe 50 miles further south at 84 hours

End result for the DC/Baltimore area isn’t much different from 12z, but you are correct. We are moving in the right direction, with light accumulation now showing up near PSU.

631B22A5-EAA7-466E-9800-F03A2193E7ED.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, T. August said:

End result for the DC/Baltimore area isn’t much different from 12z, but you are correct. We are moving in the right direction, with light accumulation now showing up near PSU.

If you were in central pa the gfs and euro are pretty locked in. The only difference with the gfs is that the 850s crash a lot earlier and we get in the comma head for a few hours with some heavy/ dynamic snowfall.  At this point I am thinking a day out on the slopes at liberty might be a safe bet.

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1 hour ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Not a member above the mason dixon.  It is less than 5 days and it hasn’t shown a run without any snow in the ma in like 10 runs.  I have never in my life seen the euro trend toward the gfs when we need it to.  Maybe just maybe this will be the miracle and the euro caves here in about 30 minutes 

Euro will cave. Model runs of a lifetime

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It's 96-108 hours away, plenty of time for further adjustments. They had a completely different day of weather in Phoenix today from what their forecast said at 0800h. The weather girl on the PGA golf coverage set said she had no idea it was going to rain and didn't bring an umbrella. Of course in fairness, she probably doesn't have an umbrella. 

 

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It's 96-108 hours away, plenty of time for further adjustments. They had a completely different day of weather in Phoenix today from what their forecast said at 0800h. The weather girl on the PGA golf coverage set said she had no idea it was going to rain and didn't bring an umbrella. Of course in fairness, she probably doesn't have an umbrella. 
 

Yeah, GEFS still looks decent fwiw


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I’m still not sold on this event for anyone south of I-70 and realistically any appreciable snow south of the M/D. Sure we can luck into something, but I like the PA Turnpike and points north for this one right now. I think WSW will be relegated to north of the subforum. This is not a setup that favors us in a climo sense. If we had anything resembling cold air in here prior, we’d be game on, but man…if only 

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

I’m still not sold on this event for anyone south of I-70 and realistically any appreciable snow south of the M/D. Sure we can luck into something, but I like the PA Turnpike and points north for this one right now. I think WSW will be relegated to north of the subforum. This is not a setup that favors us in a climo sense. If we had anything resembling cold air in here prior, we’d be game on, but man…if only 

I'll be in Emmitsburg for this event next week. Hopefully we have enough elevation for that event.

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