Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 you're in the game still. lol 4 days away. No wiggle room and euro says no 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Gefs way south 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Gefs way south Weren't you just complaining about this hobby in the other thread? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Weren't you just complaining about this hobby in the other thread?lol like this storm is going to work out 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, Ji said: lol like this storm is going to work out Then why you posting about it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Ukmet is rockin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Then why you posting about it? I’m trying to enjoy the good stuff before Charlie Brown and Lucy arrive by 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Ukmet is rockin! That model is so bad. I don’t care what the scores say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 A lot of ensemble variation still on the storm. Some miss it completely to the south. https://ibb.co/2880jhz Usually when there's a bombing low pressure, there is a wider range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, Ji said: Gefs way south Not a member above the mason dixon. It is less than 5 days and it hasn’t shown a run without any snow in the ma in like 10 runs. I have never in my life seen the euro trend toward the gfs when we need it to. Maybe just maybe this will be the miracle and the euro caves here in about 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: A lot of ensemble variation still on the storm. Some miss it completely to the south. https://ibb.co/2880jhz Usually when there's a bombing low pressure, there is a wider range. To me it looks more like variation in the timing more then anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Not sure if anyone has it faster but the low is maybe 50 miles further south at 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Not sure if anyone has it faster but the low is maybe 50 miles further south at 84 hours End result for the DC/Baltimore area isn’t much different from 12z, but you are correct. We are moving in the right direction, with light accumulation now showing up near PSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, T. August said: End result for the DC/Baltimore area isn’t much different from 12z, but you are correct. We are moving in the right direction, with light accumulation now showing up near PSU. If you were in central pa the gfs and euro are pretty locked in. The only difference with the gfs is that the 850s crash a lot earlier and we get in the comma head for a few hours with some heavy/ dynamic snowfall. At this point I am thinking a day out on the slopes at liberty might be a safe bet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 This is Definitely a trend on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 EPS trended south with the SLP but not snowfall. Thats likely due to the thermal issues south of the PA line. Even with a better track there is diminishing return to a point unless things trend colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Doctor No says maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Not a member above the mason dixon. It is less than 5 days and it hasn’t shown a run without any snow in the ma in like 10 runs. I have never in my life seen the euro trend toward the gfs when we need it to. Maybe just maybe this will be the miracle and the euro caves here in about 30 minutes Euro will cave. Model runs of a lifetime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 ICON stayed north at 6Z; let's see if GFS holds.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 WB GFS 7am Mon. Compared to 0Z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 10pm Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1am, looks a tick North... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Yah, it's over...10am Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 WB 6Z GFS now in line with EURO. Hopefully will have better luck the week of the 19th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 It's 96-108 hours away, plenty of time for further adjustments. They had a completely different day of weather in Phoenix today from what their forecast said at 0800h. The weather girl on the PGA golf coverage set said she had no idea it was going to rain and didn't bring an umbrella. Of course in fairness, she probably doesn't have an umbrella. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 It's 96-108 hours away, plenty of time for further adjustments. They had a completely different day of weather in Phoenix today from what their forecast said at 0800h. The weather girl on the PGA golf coverage set said she had no idea it was going to rain and didn't bring an umbrella. Of course in fairness, she probably doesn't have an umbrella. Yeah, GEFS still looks decent fwiw . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Yeah, GEFS still looks decent fwiw .It’s much improved from 00z actually. Euro continued to shift to the southern trend last night. Not surprised the GFS bounces around a bit. Is the most likely outcome we’re screwed in DC? Probably. I’d be pretty happy in Philly, lol. But it’s not over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 We didn’t think a model run posted live by WW was the answer to good juju did we? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I’m still not sold on this event for anyone south of I-70 and realistically any appreciable snow south of the M/D. Sure we can luck into something, but I like the PA Turnpike and points north for this one right now. I think WSW will be relegated to north of the subforum. This is not a setup that favors us in a climo sense. If we had anything resembling cold air in here prior, we’d be game on, but man…if only 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: I’m still not sold on this event for anyone south of I-70 and realistically any appreciable snow south of the M/D. Sure we can luck into something, but I like the PA Turnpike and points north for this one right now. I think WSW will be relegated to north of the subforum. This is not a setup that favors us in a climo sense. If we had anything resembling cold air in here prior, we’d be game on, but man…if only I'll be in Emmitsburg for this event next week. Hopefully we have enough elevation for that event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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