psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 26 minutes ago, CAPE said: Getting closer to something for around PD. Guidance is slowing down the STJ wave which gives it more is a chance to catch a phase with the NS. Actually Im not even sure it’s the same wave we were tracking a few days ago. That one gets totally squashed around the 18th. What was two waves after is now one stronger wave on the GEFS. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Guidance is slowing down the STJ wave which gives it more is a chance to catch a phase with the NS. Actually Im not even sure it’s the same wave we were tracking a few days ago. That one gets totally squashed around the 18th. What was two waves after is now one stronger wave on the GEFS. yup, you get the second more potent shortwave behind it 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 WB 18Z GEFS snow mean trending nicely... 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yup, you get the second more potent shortwave behind it Wait I thought he was referring to the PD period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Wait I thought he was referring to the PD perido? there's the 20-21st and another wave around the 24th behind it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: there's the 20-21st and another wave around the 24th behind it Ohh okay. Yeah he talked about the wave slowing down and catching up to the ns which is why I thought he was talking about PD period. Man I like that one better...besides it's a Nino and PD weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ohh okay. Yeah he talked about the wave slowing down and catching up to the ns which is why I thought he was talking about PD period. Man I like that one better...besides it's a Nino and PD weekend The Lord has to make it snow on Presidents Day weekend. Can you imagine getting a big storm like one day after Presidents day when we have been waiting years for PD3? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, Ji said: The Lord has to make it snow on Presidents Day weekend. Can you imagine getting a big storm like one day after Presidents day when we have been waiting years for PD3? And the day after Presidents' Day, he rested!?!? Yeah, I swear, if the storm cannot happen on that day so we can officially declare it PD3, then screw it, we shouldn't get a storm at all and let's not get any other snow the rest of this winter!!! (This is extreme sarcasm, by the way!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: there's the 20-21st and another wave around the 24th behind it That wave around the 24th has been one that many here have honed in on as the "better" opportunity, I believe? Though don't rule out something just before that either (PD or just after). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 30 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: And the day after Presidents' Day, he rested!?!? Yeah, I swear, if the storm cannot happen on that day so we can officially declare it PD3, then screw it, we shouldn't get a storm at all and let's not get any other snow the rest of this winter!!! (This is extreme sarcasm, by the way!!) Lol Hey don't get me wrong, I'll take a big snow any day of the week...I just illogically don't trust stuff to go right after PD-March 1st....at least for a big storm (12"+) anyway. No changing that part of me brain until it actually happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 41 minutes ago, Ji said: The Lord has to make it snow on Presidents Day weekend. Can you imagine getting a big storm like one day after Presidents day when we have been waiting years for PD3? While He doesn't HAVE to do it, I'd sure love it if He did And hey listen, while I'd certainly take a big snow whatever day of the week...but man, how can ya not at least imagine that? I mean you've got ingredients...and it's a Niño that's not a torch, a strong stj wave coming up PD weekend, blocking...theoretically it feels like it's the closest setup we've had for a PD3 since. But hey, maybe I'm being to snow-romantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Since we're between model cycles, the part of my brain that, for whatever reason attaches meaning to dates and such just can't get past this list...Top 25 snowstorms in Baltimore and not a one the last week of Feb...Even 2010 missed that week! Have an illogical distrust of it... Side note: All the ones I marked happened on PD weekend that year...just sayin' (although 2014 was technically Thurs-Fri) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Since we're between model cycles, the part of my brain that, for whatever reason attaches meaning to dates and such just can't get past this list...Top 25 and not a one the last week of Feb...Even 2010 missed! Don't trust it Side note: All the ones I marked happened on PD weekend thar year...just sayin' since feb 20(some duplicates) also climo is barely different from feb 18 and 3-5 days later, no reason to think that w a pattern like this we cant get a big snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: [top 25 Baltimore snowstorms] https://ibb.co/M6BjFBy I personally don't mind having a ridge over Alaska.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: https://ibb.co/M6BjFBy I personally don't mind having a ridge over Alaska.. yeah all that matters that the jet is extended the right amount which we have here, that js usually comes with +EPO/alaskan trough epo isnt js alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: https://ibb.co/M6BjFBy I personally don't mind having a ridge over Alaska.. pretty good setup Ah, but what did the extrapolation of the 84 hour NAM show about this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ah, but what did the extrapolation of the 84 hour NAM show about this? I don't know.. let's pin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Since we're between model cycles, the part of my brain that, for whatever reason attaches meaning to dates and such just can't get past this list...Top 25 snowstorms in Baltimore and not a one the last week of Feb...Even 2010 missed that week! Have an illogical distrust of it... Side note: All the ones I marked happened on PD weekend that year...just sayin' (although 2014 was technically Thurs-Fri) Why does it have to be a top 25 storm? For someone who claims to be so desperate for snow, you have some pretty damn high standards. How about being happy with something more reasonable, like a 6-10" event. Again, these advertised 'epic patterns' don't always produce a big storm. They have failure modes too. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Why does it have to be a top 25 storm? For someone who claims to be so desperate for snow, you have some pretty damn high standards. How about being happy with something more reasonable, like a 6-10" event. Again, these advertised 'epic patterns' don't always produce a big storm. They have failure modes too. Well, I already said why I'm big snow hunting this year in particular...but after my Tuesday debacle, I'm pretty sure nobody wants me to re-litigate that. Now, please don't misunderstand me...this doesn't mean I don't appreciate a 6-10" event. That'd be good!! And I've mentioned on more than one occasion that I've learned recently to enjoy even the small ones (especially in Ninas where that's all you can muster) However, THIS year...when you have a shot, AND it's been this long without a big dog, why not root for it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ohh okay. Yeah he talked about the wave slowing down and catching up to the ns which is why I thought he was talking about PD period. Man I like that one better...besides it's a Nino and PD weekend Chill. It won’t even really be Pd weekend anyways. The initial wave we were tracking for over Pd weekend is gone now. Squashed to nothing. The wave of interest now wouldn’t really hit us until Tuesday after PD anyways. It might start that Monday evening if you want to count that. With the timing changes of the waves I’m no longer sure which is the one. But I was pretty sure that wave we were initially tracking for around the 18-19 wasn’t it. And sure enough that’s totally gone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Chill. It won’t even really be Pd weekend anyways. The initial wave we were tracking for over Pd weekend is gone now. Squashed to nothing. The wave of interest now wouldn’t really hit us until Tuesday after PD anyways. It might start that Monday evening if you want to count that. With the timing changes of the waves I’m no longer sure which is the one. But I was pretty sure that wave we were initially tracking for around the 18-19 wasn’t it. And sure enough that’s totally gone now. To support this point, I saw 3 “waves” of interest on the ensembles a couple days back. One is the feb 13-14. The other two came later but were too close together that I read it as disagreement among ensemble members. Now they seem to be consolidating into better agreement on that third wave. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Since we're between model cycles, the part of my brain that, for whatever reason attaches meaning to dates and such just can't get past this list...Top 25 snowstorms in Baltimore and not a one the last week of Feb...Even 2010 missed that week! Have an illogical distrust of it... Side note: All the ones I marked happened on PD weekend that year...just sayin' (although 2014 was technically Thurs-Fri) Correlation with no causation is just random chance. First of all, there is a very clear sweet spot between Feb 5 and Feb 18. That 2 week period contains an inordinate amount of our big snows. 11 of the top 25 came in that period. Obviously those 2 weeks are our best chance. But outside those 2 weeks the other 14 storms were scattered throughout the rest of the winter pretty randomly between Dec 10 and March 30. But it’s only 14 storms. And some are clustered on top of each other like a couple storms that happened mid Dec and a few in late Jan. A couple in early March. So there are naturally going to be dead zones also just by chance. There was no top 25 storm from Dec 20-Jan 6 but you don’t obsess about those weeks. No storm Jan 10-Jan 21 either. There was no storm Feb 1-4. You think that means anything? Why is it only the last week of Feb that you obsess over and not all the other random periods we haven’t had a top snowstorm yet? Second, PD is Feb 19 this year. It’s late. All those storms ended by the 18th. The storm were tracking for Pd would start on the 19th and carry into the 20th. That’s after all those storms. We’ve never had a top storm after Feb 18. So explain why just because it’s PD that somehow makes it more likely? Why does the weather care it’s PD. Even if the PD3 storm hits it breaks this silly rule you’ve constructed because it’s a day after all those other storms in the dead zone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 @Maestrobjwa - If you're going to hone in on dates and calendars to backup your point...you should also take into account that a year isn't truly 365 days. Hence why we have leap years. So really it could be said that each year is never identical to the last - thus throwing off your calendar date patterns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: @Maestrobjwa - If you're going to hone in on dates and calendars to backup your point...you should also take into account that a year isn't truly 365 days. Hence why we have leap years. So really it could be said that each year is never identical to the last - thus throwing off your calendar date patterns. Dude he is curled up on the floor in a corner babbling incoherently right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Dude he is curled up on the floor in a corner babbling incoherently right now. That wasn't necessary. To simplify...It's not logical--I look at some sports things the same way. When they say "This team is 14-1 when this happens". Of course it doesn't actualy change the outcome...just a trend. Folks use these "trends" to bet because they "feel" like they have a better chance. For example...the starting a thread debate we have here every year! It has nothing to do with how a storm goes...and yet some feel that you "jinx" it by starting it too soon. It's not logical, but people think that way, lol That's the sum total of what I feel with those dates. It's not based in logic as I stated a couple times...if I gambled I wouldn't pick the dates! But no scientific reason...and eventually (even this month) we get something on those dates and poof, trend over, ya feel better about it. But until then 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The gfs keeps running that NS wave over the top of the PD STJ wave. We need that to either not be there or further south and phase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The gfs keeps running that NS wave over the top of the PD STJ wave. We need that to either not be there or further south and phase. Dumb hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Dumb hobby No return on investment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 This little shit southern GOM wave is kinda fucking things up. GFS looks like it's try ing to tee up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now