Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Semi off-topic, but is TT still down? It's been out apparently most of the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I hope Nina plus warm oceans mean 240mph canes smashing the Gulf Coast to smithereens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Jebman said: I hope Nina plus warm oceans mean 240mph canes smashing the Gulf Coast to smithereens! I like you Jeb, but no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Semi off-topic, but is TT still down? It's been out apparently most of the afternoon. Seems so. Levi posted on Twitter earlier that there’s no estimate for return. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Semi off-topic, but is TT still down? It's been out apparently most of the afternoon. Yeap. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Semi off-topic, but is TT still down? It's been out apparently most of the afternoon.Inexcusable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: If you guys are really into weather for a scientific interest, you should look where the money is.. commodities market had a warm Winter signal all Winter long.. even the NOAA was too conservative in its warm Winter forecast. Sometimes something can just be random. That’s gambling. And betting on warm given recent trends is smart. But they don’t have any super special insight we don’t. Except maybe if I had money riding on it I’d be a little more conservative and cautious about going cold or snowy. I had reservations. I knew the risks that the Nino wouldn’t offset the recent base state. Maybe if I had money riding on it I would have considered that even more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Ji said: Inexcusable Weenie screen refreshes overloading the server 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 17 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Semi off-topic, but is TT still down? It's been out apparently most of the afternoon. @Stormchaserchuck1 is in heaven. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Stormchaserchuck1 is in heaven. Damnit I was going to make a Chuck joke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Sometimes something can just be random. That’s gambling. And betting on warm given recent trends is smart. But they don’t have any super special insight we don’t. Except maybe if I had money riding on it I’d be a little more conservative and cautious about going cold or snowy. I had reservations. I knew the risks that the Nino wouldn’t offset the recent base state. Maybe if I had money riding on it I would have considered that even more. Yeah, I thought it was interesting that the El Nino was not causing a North Pacific low all of Apr-Nov. The signs were there, if I did a Winter forecast it would have been a neutral PNA, and maybe neutral NAO (N. Atlantic SST indicator May-Sept)/negative AO (Stratosphere warmings, strong -QBO), although the ENSO correlation does pick up from 0.2-0.3 all Summer-Fall to 0.5 to 0.6 in the Winter.. I think I was leaning on that development on posts on this board, but it was kind of silly looking back at it.. the Nino never acted more than a 0.5-0.6 ONI would in the N. Pacific. Since the STJ did get heavy, and the global precipitable water did blow out 15-16 (80% as #2 on record), I think it might be a PDO issue, like you say, or something in that area.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Stormchaserchuck1 is in heaven. Purple clouds and shrooms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Stormchaserchuck1 is in heaven. No if the EPS was down lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 34 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: There does seem to be a general -NAO/bad Pacific correlation right now. There is just a bad pacific correlation. It’s not like the pacific been good when the nao is pos either. The pac has just been bad 90% of the time so of course it’s been bad during most -nao. The pac and Atlantic did both time up for a minute in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 42 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Conditions there will be even better next year They just had a huge rainstorm all the way to the summit a week ago. Like 4” of rain. Wiped out the lower mountain completely and turned the top to a sheet of ice. And this after they got a super late start from a warm December. They’re having maybe the worse year ever there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 26 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I like you Jeb, but no. Okay. NO severe canes in the Gulf. I will settle for a Hurricane Matthew hitting Mexico instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They just had a huge rainstorm all the way to the summit a week ago. Like 4” of rain. Wiped out the lower mountain completely and turned the top to a sheet of ice. And this after they got a super late start from a warm December. They’re having maybe the worse year ever there. Wow didn’t realize it was so bad there. They have a very low bar to pass next year then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 24 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Wow didn’t realize it was so bad there. They have a very low bar to pass next year then The lower elevation mountains out west have been having a horrific year. Snow levels on many storms have been unprecedentedly high. 8-9k in some cases. Some resorts had to close multiple times all the way into January and I saw some smaller resort in Montana just gave up and cancelled the season after being open only 4 days when they got wiped out again by the last rainstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 22 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Wow didn’t realize it was so bad there. They have a very low bar to pass next year then (FYI referencing this reply: I work the parking crew at Mt Bachelor and was working the paid and RV parking area this morning ) Whistler has had a really rough year. (and the lower elevation resorts here too) I have been seeing a bunch of Canadian license plates coming here to ski/ snowboard. On my shift today several British Columbia plates and a couple in their sprinter van here for 3 days. I spoke with them and they were so happy to be somewhere with a good base and they lucked into a colder storm cycle. Powder day today! Way more rain and ice than normal here but thankfully the storms are juiced up so when it does snow its a bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The lower elevation mountains out west have been having a horrific year. Snow levels on many storms have been unprecedentedly high. 8-9k in some cases. Some resorts had to close multiple times all the way into January and I saw some smaller resort in Montana just gave up and cancelled the season after being open only 4 days when they got wiped out again by the last rainstorm. First hand that is absolutely true. Rough season for any resorts out here below 6000' There are several not far from me that have base elevations around 5000' They are skiing now and mostly open but very late start and probably early closing? Unless March flips colder? As mentioned in my other reply very juiced storms and AR events so the snow pack above 8000' is massive! They finally open the summit last weekend here at Mt Bachelor but not before a bunch of dynamite work for avalanche mitigation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 21 minutes ago, snownut said: (FYI referencing this reply: I work the parking crew at Mt Bachelor and was working the paid and RV parking area this morning ) Whistler has had a really rough year. (and the lower elevation resorts here too) I have been seeing a bunch of Canadian license plates coming here to ski/ snowboard. On my shift today several British Columbia plates and a couple in their sprinter van here for 3 days. I spoke with them and they were so happy to be somewhere with a good base and they lucked into a colder storm cycle. Powder day today! Way more rain and ice than normal here but thankfully the storms are juiced up so when it does snow its a bunch. I was hoping to go to Whistler, but since it rained so much, I chose Tahoe instead, and I was there from the first of the month until this past Sunday. What a great move it was. Heavenly was not very impressive in terms of conditions (though the lake view was great), but Kirkwood was amazing, and at some point I’ll share the pics I took (in the winter pics thread). Kirkwood ended up with a total of 65” while I was out there, and this wasn’t the stereotypical Sierra cement, it was legit powder much like the Rockies. It was some of the best skiing I’ve ever enjoyed, not quite like Alta last year but close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, AtlanticWx said: i can't wait to see the papers analyzing this model fuck-up I might decide to do my thesis on it. Any suggestions for a title? Half kidding but I really might. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, snownut said: First hand that is absolutely true. Rough season for any resorts out here below 6000' There are several not far from me that have base elevations around 5000' They are skiing now and mostly open but very late start and probably early closing? Unless March flips colder? As mentioned in my other reply very juiced storms and AR events so the snow pack above 8000' is massive! They finally open the summit last weekend here at Mt Bachelor but not before a bunch of dynamite work for avalanche mitigation. Jackson Hole tracks summit, mid mtn and base snowfall. I’ve never seen such a difference between the 10,500 and 6200 snowfall reports. Several storms where they got 20+ at the top and rain at the bottom. Very unusual. Unfortunately probably going to become more common 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, Fozz said: I was hoping to go to Whistler, but since it rained so much, I chose Tahoe instead, and I was there from the first of the month until this past Sunday. What a great move it was. Heavenly was not very impressive, but Kirkwood was amazing, and at some point I’ll share the pics I took (in the winter pics thread). Kirkwood ended up with a total of 65” while I was out there, and this wasn’t the stereotypical Sierra cement, it was legit powder much like the Rockies. It was some of the best skiing I’ve ever enjoyed, not quite like Alta last year but close. Haven't been to Tahoe since I was a young fit dude. Older dude now so just keeping myself rolling. I have heard great things about Kirkwood and I know they get hammered. Glad you timed your trip for powder skiing because those days have been few this season! Send me some photos! I took this photo a couple hours ago at the top of NW Lift. It gets blasted and drifted in. The snow wall there is crazy high! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Didn't we get -45F in Montana in January? The wind chill at the Chiefs game was -24F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Jackson Hole tracks summit, mid mtn and base snowfall. I’ve never seen such a difference between the 10,500 and 6200 snowfall reports. Several storms where they got 20+ at the top and rain at the bottom. Very unusual. Unfortunately probably going to become more common This is the highest point near me. (South Sister 10,300') Took this from the parking lot ( 6,500') early this morning. I July hiked it two times when I first moved here. Its a long day hike. 15 miles and a mile elevation change from the parking lot. Pretty easy except a long loose scree incline just before the summit. The snow fields and glaciers on the summit never melt out. ( sadly that maybe changing soon ) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Didn't we get -45F in Montana in January? The wind chill at the Chiefs game was -24F. A 3 day cold shot doesn’t impact the ski resorts nearly as much as not having crazy warm thaws or high elevation rain that wiped out their base and wrecks the conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The 18z gfs shows how the next 2 weeks has potential still. It’s not the epic pattern but it’s not a shit the blinds either. With an active wave train we could luck into a hit from another wave after PD before the pattern possibly goes to crap in early Match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Jackson Hole tracks summit, mid mtn and base snowfall. I’ve never seen such a difference between the 10,500 and 6200 snowfall reports. Several storms where they got 20+ at the top and rain at the bottom. Very unusual. Unfortunately probably going to become more common Could it be that the SSW was a reflection type so it ruined the blocking pattern? Pulled directly from the paper Cite: Kodera et al, 2015 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015JD023359 What are your thoughts? Just thought I would try and search for an answer looking at past research. Edit: There is obviously a lot to this paper but what I got was that not all SSWs necessarily lead to a blocking pattern (-NAO/-AO) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Jebman said: Okay. NO severe canes in the Gulf. I will settle for a Hurricane Matthew hitting Mexico instead. It'll then move on into Texas, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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