February 2024

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

true but how often does the SE ridge work in our favor for a cold snowy pattern lately ?

Unfortunately we have moved back to a 1970 through 1999, particularly 85 through 95 pattern which was notoriously "cold and dry (congrats MA) warm and wet (big cutter)" year after year. Those years the SE ridge only flexed during cutters of course. It failed us and the MA cashed in (especially 87). So, we cannot expect it to help much now. That being said, like Bluewave stated, one could nudge north to hit us. 

A warmer climate may help us here.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Right and this isn't unprecedented, we've seen this happen before, several times.

this is pure speculation at this point IMO we don't even know when the pattern change is definetely going to happen yet date wise........to try and pin point storm tracks is impossible right now

[MANDA]

10 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 62 (1973)
NYC: 59 (1988)
LGA:  59 (1988)


Lows: 

EWR: -2 (1961)
NYC: -3 (1881)
LGA: -1 (1961)

 

Historical:

1870: Congressman Halbert Paine, who represented Wisconsin's Second District, introduced a joint resolution in the House of Representatives “to authorize the Secretary of War to provide for taking meteorological observations at the military stations and other points in the interior of the continent, and for giving notice on the Northern Lakes and seaboard of the approach and force of storms.”  The House adopted the resolution by unanimous consent and, two days later, it passed the Senate. Five days later, on Feb. 9, President Ulysses S. Grant signed the joint resolution into law, officially creating the nation's first weather service.

1952 - The only tropical storm of record to hit the U.S. in February moved out of the Gulf of Mexico and across southern Florida. It produced 60 mph winds, and two to four inches of rain. (2nd-3rd) (The Weather Channel)

 

 

1952: An area of low pressure moved out of the Gulf of Mexico and across southern Florida during the evening and late-night hours on February 2, 1952. It produced 60 mph winds and two to four inches of rain on February 2 and 3. The low pressure remains the only tropical storm to impact the United States in February.

1956 - A record snowstorm in New Mexico and west Texas began on Ground Hog's Day. The storm produced 15 inches of snow at Roswell NM, and up to 33 inches in the Texas Panhandle. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A fast moving arctic front brought snow and high winds to the north central U.S. Winds gusted to 69 mph at Brookings SD. Big Falls MN reported nine inches of snow. Record warmth was reported just ahead of the front. Burlington IA reported a record high of 59 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A dying low pressure system over southern California deluged the San Diego coastal mountains with more than four inches of rain causing half a million dollars damage. Arctic air invading the north central U.S. sent the mercury plunging to 38 degrees below zero at Park Rapids MN. Raleigh NC reported a record high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Bitter cold air covered much of the central U.S. Butte MT reported a wind chill reading of 91 degrees below zero, Salt Lake City UT was blanketed with 11.9 inches of snow in 24 hours, and winds around Reno NV gusted to 80 mph. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the southeastern U.S. Twenty-eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Wilmington NC with a reading of 80 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and evening hours. One person was injured in a tornado near Reidheimer LA. Thunderstorms northeast of Brandon MS produced hail three inches in diameter along with high winds which downed or snapped off one hundred trees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1996 - An Arctic outbreak that lasted from late January through early February produced nearly 400 hundred record lows, 15 all-time low readings, and over 50 new record lows. Four states recorded their all-time record low temperatures, including Tower, Minnesota, on this date with a reading of 60 degrees below zero, canceling Tower's annual Icebox Days festival because it is too cold. Locations that reported their all-time record low or tied included: Cresco, IA: -36�, Osage, IA: -34�, Charles City, IA tied their record low with -32� and Lancaster, WI tied their all-time record low with -31�. International Falls, MN, and Glasgow, MT set records for February with -45� and -38�, respectively. The temperature at Embarrass, MN, plummeted to -53�. Rochester, MN, dipped to -34� for its coldest temperature in 45 years. Green Bay, WI only reached -16� for the high temperature for the day, their coldest

 

1996: An Arctic outbreak that lasted from late January through early February produced nearly 400 hundred record lows, 15 all-time low readings, and over 50 new record lows. Four states recorded their all-time record low temperatures, including Tower, Minnesota, on this date with a reading of 60 degrees below zero, canceling Tower's annual Icebox Days festival because it is too cold. Locations that reported their all-time record low or tied included: Cresco, IA: -36°, Osage, IA: -34°, Charles City, IA tied their record low with -32° and Lancaster, WI tied their all-time record low with -31°. International Falls, MN, and Glasgow, MT set records for February with -45° and -38°, respectively. The temperature at Embarrass, MN, plummeted to -53°. Rochester, MN, dipped to -34° for its coldest temperature in 45 years. Green Bay, WI only reached -16° for the high temperature for the day, their coldest high temperature on record in February. The place to be this day was in Orlando, FL, where it was a balmy 85 degrees.

2006 - New Orleans is struck by two tornadoes, collapsing at least one previously damaged house and battering Louis Armstrong International Airport. The Weather Doctor

2008 - Hilo, HI, is deluged by 10.82 inches of rain in a period of 24 hours, breaking the previous record set in 1969 by 3.5 inches. The Weather Doctor

2011 - A high temperature of 44°F registered at Sky Harbor Airport in Phoenix, AZ, sets an all-time February record for the coldest high temperature for the city. The Weather Doctor

Imagine if we had an outbreak like that one in 1996 today!    Climate doing what climate does....changing always.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

It's a legitimate concern. But I don't know that it will favor the mid Atlantic either if cold air fails to materialize 

Yes, right now I'm thinking if the storm track is that far south, the mountains would most likely be favored.  Elevation seems to do better no matter what the pattern, so that's a safe bet to make.

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I think the deeper we get into February areas south and east of DC will have precip type issues

Depends on intensity, timing (night).

[LibertyBell]

Just now, MANDA said:

Imagine if we had an outbreak like that one in 1996 today!    Climate doing what climate does....changing always.

That 1996 arctic outbreak is extremely underrated, so many people remember the Jan 1996 blizzard and then the extreme January thaw and flooding we had after that, but the comeback to winter weather by early February was historic too.

 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yes, right now I'm thinking if the storm track is that far south, the mountains would most likely be favored.  Elevation seems to do better no matter what the pattern, so that's a safe bet to make.

its impossible to even speculate about storm tracks right now too early

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Depends on intensity, timing (night).

I think it's a safe bet, either way, that areas with elevation will do best.

Coastal areas are not the place to be for snowfall lately.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

its impossible to even speculate about storm tracks right now too early

Right, but if one had to make a prediction, the safest one to make (whatever the storm track is, north or south), that elevated areas are most likely to do best.

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

What is your definition of " a decent megalopolis snowstorm this winter" ?????

12" at least...preferably 18".

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

this is pure speculation at this point IMO we don't even know when the pattern change is definetely going to happen yet date wise........

Until it happens we won't know it happened.

The encouraging thing is, at least the models aren't kicking it down the road as of now.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, MANDA said:

12" at least...preferably 18".

Do you mean for any season or for a good season? I'd agree with Walt here, a widespread 6"+ storm for the megalopolis would be considered a major snowstorm this season.

 

[EastonSN+]

Raleigh NC had a February snowstorm recently

 

Most snow to fall in one day during recent years in Raleigh

Inches	Date	Centi­metres
1.5	January 21, 2022	3.8
1.6	January 28, 2021	4.1
2.5	February 20, 2020	6.4
trace	November 12, 2019 +	trace
7.0	December 09, 2018	17.8
0.5	January 07, 2017	1.3
1.2	January 22, 2016	3.0
3.2	February 26, 2015	8.1
3.3	February 12, 2014	8.4
0.7	February 16, 2013 +	1.8
0.9	February 19, 2012	2.3
0.4	February 10, 2011	1.0
6.7	December 26, 2010	17.0

 

hes	Date	Centi­metres
3.5	January 20, 2009	8.9
0.5	January 19, 2008	1.3
1.0	January 18, 2007	2.5
trace	November 21, 2006 +	trace
0.7	January 19, 2005	1.8
4.5	February 27, 2004	11.4
2.3	January 23, 2003	5.8
6.5	January 03, 2002	16.5
0.3	February 22, 2001	0.8
17.9	January 25, 2000	45.5
trace	December 25, 1999 +	trace
2.0	January 19, 1998	5.1
0.4	January 11, 1997	1.0
5.6	February 16, 1996	14.2
1.0	February 07, 1995	2.5
0.6	February 02, 1994	1.5
2.6	December 23, 1993	6.6
trace	December 27, 1992 +	trace
trace	November 09, 1991 +	trace
trace	December 27, 1990 +	trace
5.8	February 18, 1989	14.7
7.1	January 07, 1988	18.0
5.2	February 27, 1987	13.2
0.7	February 14, 1986	1.8
2.4	January 28, 1985	6.1
6.9	February 06, 1984	17.5
7.3	March 24, 1983	18.5
5.0	January 14, 1982	12.7
2.6	January 30, 1981	6.6
9.0	March 02, 1980	22.9
10.3	February 18, 1979	26.2
3.2	February 22, 1978 +	8.1
1.8	January 24, 1977	4.6
0.4	January 17, 1976	1.0
2.6	November 23, 1975	6.6
2.9	March 25, 1974	7.4
5.7	January 08, 1973	14.5
2.6	March 25, 1972	6.6
5.2	March 26, 1971	13.2
1.0	January 23, 1970 +	2.5
9.3	March 01, 1969	23.6
1.4	January 25, 1968	3.6
9.1	February 09, 1967	23.1
7.6	January 26, 1966	19.3
3.8	January 30, 1965	9.7
1.0	February 28, 1964 +	2.5
6.9	February 26, 1963	17.5
5.0	January 10, 1962	12.7
1.2	February 03, 1961 +	3.0
6.9	March 09, 1960	17.5
1.7	January 08, 1959	4.3
9.1	December 11, 1958	23.1
1.0	December 11, 1957	2.5
2.0	January 23, 1956	5.1
9.0	January 19, 1955	22.9
4.1	January 23, 1954	10.4
0.6	November 06, 1953	1.5
3.5	February 26, 1952	8.9
1.2	February 09, 1951	3.0
0.3	December 28, 1950	0.8
trace	December 15, 1949 +	trace
9.9	February 10, 1948	25.1
2.0	March 27, 1947	5.1
4.0	January 17, 1946	10.2
2.9	December 15, 1945	7.4

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Raleigh NC had a February snowstorm recently

 

Most snow to fall in one day during recent years in Raleigh

Inches	Date	Centi­metres
1.5	January 21, 2022	3.8
1.6	January 28, 2021	4.1
2.5	February 20, 2020	6.4
trace	November 12, 2019 +	trace
7.0	December 09, 2018	17.8
0.5	January 07, 2017	1.3
1.2	January 22, 2016	3.0
3.2	February 26, 2015	8.1
3.3	February 12, 2014	8.4
0.7	February 16, 2013 +	1.8
0.9	February 19, 2012	2.3
0.4	February 10, 2011	1.0
6.7	December 26, 2010	17.0

 

hes	Date	Centi­metres
3.5	January 20, 2009	8.9
0.5	January 19, 2008	1.3
1.0	January 18, 2007	2.5
trace	November 21, 2006 +	trace
0.7	January 19, 2005	1.8
4.5	February 27, 2004	11.4
2.3	January 23, 2003	5.8
6.5	January 03, 2002	16.5
0.3	February 22, 2001	0.8
17.9	January 25, 2000	45.5
trace	December 25, 1999 +	trace
2.0	January 19, 1998	5.1
0.4	January 11, 1997	1.0
5.6	February 16, 1996	14.2
1.0	February 07, 1995	2.5
0.6	February 02, 1994	1.5
2.6	December 23, 1993	6.6
trace	December 27, 1992 +	trace
trace	November 09, 1991 +	trace
trace	December 27, 1990 +	trace
5.8	February 18, 1989	14.7
7.1	January 07, 1988	18.0
5.2	February 27, 1987	13.2
0.7	February 14, 1986	1.8
2.4	January 28, 1985	6.1
6.9	February 06, 1984	17.5
7.3	March 24, 1983	18.5
5.0	January 14, 1982	12.7
2.6	January 30, 1981	6.6
9.0	March 02, 1980	22.9
10.3	February 18, 1979	26.2
3.2	February 22, 1978 +	8.1
1.8	January 24, 1977	4.6
0.4	January 17, 1976	1.0
2.6	November 23, 1975	6.6
2.9	March 25, 1974	7.4
5.7	January 08, 1973	14.5
2.6	March 25, 1972	6.6
5.2	March 26, 1971	13.2
1.0	January 23, 1970 +	2.5
9.3	March 01, 1969	23.6
1.4	January 25, 1968	3.6
9.1	February 09, 1967	23.1
7.6	January 26, 1966	19.3
3.8	January 30, 1965	9.7
1.0	February 28, 1964 +	2.5
6.9	February 26, 1963	17.5
5.0	January 10, 1962	12.7
1.2	February 03, 1961 +	3.0
6.9	March 09, 1960	17.5
1.7	January 08, 1959	4.3
9.1	December 11, 1958	23.1
1.0	December 11, 1957	2.5
2.0	January 23, 1956	5.1
9.0	January 19, 1955	22.9
4.1	January 23, 1954	10.4
0.6	November 06, 1953	1.5
3.5	February 26, 1952	8.9
1.2	February 09, 1951	3.0
0.3	December 28, 1950	0.8
trace	December 15, 1949 +	trace
9.9	February 10, 1948	25.1
2.0	March 27, 1947	5.1
4.0	January 17, 1946	10.2
2.9	December 15, 1945	7.4

 

Look at all those big ones in the 80s for them lol-- also, January 2000 really sticks out, looks like that was their GOAT snowstorm?

I remember the Carolina snowstorm in January 2002, they got a big one while we were snowless.

Then again there are several winters in there when they did well AND we did well too-- 1995-96 sticks out in that regard, as do later winters in the 00s.

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think it's a safe bet, either way, that areas with elevation will do best.

Coastal areas are not the place to be for snowfall lately.

January so colder, however the NC coastal areas can still do good....2022

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Look at all those big ones in the 80s for them lol-- also, January 2000 really sticks out, looks like that was their GOAT snowstorm?

 

Yeah my sister lives in Cary NC and hates snow so remember it well.

We are entering a multi year pattern where they can rack up again.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah my sister lives in Cary NC and hates snow so remember it well.

We are entering a multi year pattern where they can rack up again.

I remember the Carolina snowstorm in January 2002, they got a big one while we were snowless.

Then again there are several winters in there when they did well AND we did well too-- 1995-96 sticks out in that regard, as do later winters in the 00s.

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Look at all those big ones in the 80s for them lol-- also, January 2000 really sticks out, looks like that was their GOAT snowstorm?

 

Lol I just realized Raleigh has been out performing CPK lately in terms of snowfall as a % of average.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Lol I just realized Raleigh has been out performing CPK lately in terms of snowfall as a % of average.

It makes sense since they are somewhat inland.  Do you have elevation data on them? I think they're in the piedmont, so not at sea level but not highly elevated either?

 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

It makes sense since they are somewhat inland.  Do you have elevation data on them? I think they're in the piedmont, so not at sea level but not highly elevated either?

 

331 feet.

NYC has a double whammy. On the water and major UHW.

[WestBabylonWeather]

I have family that moved to Raleigh it’s only snowed a couple times in several years. One reason I didn’t move lol

but it’s happening here now soooooo

[EastonSN+]

Talk about un consolidated polar vortex

[SnowGoose69]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave Did you notice the rapid strengthening/warming going on with the El Nino? Region 3.4 is over +1.9C again. Region 3 is also almost +2C

 

 

Its main reason I have skeptical of any mod or strong La Nina next winter....it may not even be weak, I still think it ends up near neutral

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Talk about un consolidated polar vortex

Models are loaded with potential 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models are loaded with potential 

12Z GFS - not even a fantasy longer range snowstorm - not a good signal so far - the means can look great at 500 longer range but doesn't mean there will be any snow here

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Talk about un consolidated polar vortex

we've seen a dramatic change towards a final warming of the SPV that instantly couples with the TPV. this would have near immediate effects... not the typical SSW where you'd need to wait a few weeks. you'd see sustained blocking here, likely into March

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFS - not even a fantasy longer range snowstorm - not a good signal so far - the means can look great at 500 longer range but doesn't mean there will be any snow here

Let the pattern establish itself first and then worry about snow. 

[Krs4Lfe]

In essence, pretty much everything you’d want to see for a projected pattern flip is on the table starting mid month. Big western ridging, heights building around Greenland, a backlog of storms in the North Atlantic, and an active STJ. Antecedent cold air will be greatly lacking at a minimum, if not completely missing at all. Snow cover across CONUS is even lower than 2020 and 2012, and once you get further in the season; an existing snowpack helps reinforce cold air even more. Unfortunately, we’re moving out of peak climo for snow soon, but storms can occur regardless. As much as this pattern looks great, and it can play out great as well, I’m not sure it will. The timing of cold air would have to be spot on. And we would need constant storminess in order to make up for what we haven’t had so far this winter. A tall order, this is. In a pattern like this, this is the best option to get it done. I’d wager that it’s unlikely at this point, but this would be the pattern to get it done, if it does happen. 

[NEG NAO]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Let the pattern establish itself first and then worry about snow. 

we will know before the pattern is in place if there will also be a stormy pattern developing.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

53 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

we will know before the pattern is in place if there will also be a stormy pattern developing.

The ensembles seem to me to be pointing to an extremely dry pattern over the most of the mid Atlantic and northeastern states the next 2-3 weeks. As of right now, it is difficult for me to imagine how any southern stream system gets far enough north to affect areas north of N.C., Va.  Of course that could change. But the will the colder air masses be cold enough and locked in if it were to change? I'm getting a little bit doubtful.

WX/PT