Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[mannynyc]

4 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

Snow now by Monday evening? Hmm that's earlier 

Showing up on the high-res Nam too

[winterwx21]

You knew NAM would look much better on the 18z run lol. 

[Stormlover74]

Nice hit on the nam by Tuesday morning. 2 to 4

[Stormlover74]

Colder run just as I thought 

[mannynyc]

Clown map

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Unusually good agreement on snowfall, especially for Philly-NJ-NYC, from the three main ensemble forecasts~36 hours in advance of the precip.  I'm sure this helps forecasters' confidence level...

 

Now that’s real good agreement. Completely reasonable 

[BoulderWX]

Think a lot of people would be happy with the name output verbetim. If only 

[SBUWX23]

No more warm nose at 850 on nam. Does lose saturation aloft briefly so some sleet maybe but this is ideal to get snow overnight Monday like this. Is it right? Seems to be most aggressive that early but let's see how everything else trends.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

No more warm nose at 850 on nam. Does lose saturation aloft briefly so some sleet maybe but this is ideal to get snow overnight Monday like this. Is it right? Seems to be most aggressive that early but let's see how everything else trends.

Yeah getting that initial burst Monday evening is the difference between getting 2 or 4-5

What falls during the day is pretty unimpressive 

[RU848789]

9 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

No more warm nose at 850 on nam. Does lose saturation aloft briefly so some sleet maybe but this is ideal to get snow overnight Monday like this. Is it right? Seems to be most aggressive that early but let's see how everything else trends.

There still is along and SE of 95, but it only comes in near the end of the precip at least for me in the edison area (shows some sleet after 10 am then ending as a little zr)... didn't check other soundings...

[SnowGoose69]

The 18Z HRRR was actually close to what the NAM showed, especially past 30 hours

[Allsnow]

19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Colder run just as I thought 

You can’t take the nam seriously until 12 hours before the storm 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

You can’t take the nam seriously until 12 hours before the storm 

I'm figuring on half of what it shows. Would still be 2 to 3

[wishcast_hater]

You can’t take the nam seriously until 12 hours before the storm 

You can’t take the nam seriously until 12 hours AFTER the storm 


.

[SnowGoose69]

RGEM still in the you don't really want it category for now 

[Allsnow]

 

[MJO812]

Gfs is still cold 

[uofmiami]

OKX latest map:

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is still cold 

Consistently 1 to 2" with much higher amounts to the south

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Consistently 1 to 2" with much higher amounts to the south

That small band keeps creeping northward .

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Consistently 1 to 2" with much higher amounts to the south

Over running snows might over produce by DCA and Bwi 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Over running snows might over produce by DCA and Bwi 

Gfs was slightly more amped again this rub. Hopefully it continues.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Over running snows might over produce by DCA and Bwi 

Any other models show big totals down there ?

[Allsnow]

[Stormlover74]

Gfs ens look good. Wetter than the op

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs ens look good. Wetter than the op

Yes

[Allsnow]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs ens look good. Wetter than the op

Definitely 

[SnowGoose69]

One thing to watch, the 18Z HRRR showing that snow earlier than any model tomorrow for CNJ-SNJ...that could be 200-250 jet induced...the HRRR has captured a few of those events before with snow...one I think occurred in the 20-21 winter here and it had it better depicted than any other guidance 

[snowman19]

37 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

OKX latest map:

Very good agreement now (all 3 ensemble suites, EURO, GFS, UKMET, NWS blend of models, FV3, ICON, SREF, RGEM).

We’ll say around 2.5 inches of snow as a mean from all of them. The 18z NAM is the clear outlier, but what else is new with that dreadful model. Assuming the CMC drops some at 0z from 12z to match the others if the new RGEM is any clue

[mannynyc]

Would guess that most snow accumulation will happen tomorrow night and not on Tuesday morning/afternoon based on recent trends.