Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,540
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    clydes6
    Newest Member
    clydes6
    Joined

Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


 Share

Recommended Posts

Same pattern as last year, it will get cold when it is dry but when we get precip it is rain. Back to back winters without measurable snow in my time.  Bearing a miracle, I did get 1 inch of snow in early April 2007. Williamsburg, Gloucster and Mathews County got 3-4 inches.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So far at RDU, 14 of the first 19 days have been above average for high temps this month, including two days where the daily low temp stayed above the average high temp for the date. Only saving grace has been it’s been relatively dry meaning we’ve had some phenomenal weather days. But we’ve been so far removed from even thinking about snow besides on a weather forum it’s literally become a pipe dream around here

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That’s hilarious. I cannot believe the highlands couldn’t even buy a rogue snow shower dusting during one of the many upslope events NC has gotten 

Highlands?  That's in NC, although there is the very thin strip of Mts in Greenville, Pickens, and Oconee counties...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/8/2024 at 11:15 AM, GaWx said:

 The 2/13-20 averaged 0Z 2/8 GEFS predicted AO dropped back some to -3.2 (see image below) vs -3.0 in the 2/7 run and -3.5 in the 2/6 run.

 

  Strongest -AO El Niño averaged 2/13-20 (lowest daily) out of 25 Ninos since 1952:

1969: -4.8 (-5.1) (PNA: -0.1)

2010: -4.4 (-5.1) (PNA: +0.7)

1978: -2.6 (-4.8) (PNA: +0.8)

1958: -2.5 (-4.0) (PNA: +1.1)

1970: -2.4 (-4.0)

1964: -2.4 (-3.4)

1987: -2.4 (-3.3)

1966: -2.2 (-3.5)

1952: -2.1 (-2.5)

1983: -2.0 (-2.7)

1977: -1.2 (-2.1)

2007: -1.2 (-1.9)

2005: -1.1 (-1.7)

IMG_9143.thumb.png.4816819ce33259887e46cd54376f655c.png

 

 As per the post I’m quoting, look at how badly the GEFS (other models were similar) busted with the very strong -AO predictions made 2/6-8 for 2/13-20:

2/6 predicted -3.5

2/7 predicted -3.0

2/8 predicted -3.2

 

2/6 prediction: -3.5 for 2/13-20 (all days sub -3.0!)

image.thumb.png.f890ee5f9862592cebc364848a643f49.png

 

Actual: -0.6 for 2/13-20 (2/16-20 all ended up above all 30 2/6 prediction’s members!)

image.thumb.png.2dbc032412ca1524e899a8137eff0311.png
 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.gefs.z1000.120days.csv

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Foothills, whatever you want to call them 

We NEVER do well in upslope events.  I've lived in Greenville all my 53 years, and the snow from those type setups always seem to stop at the  Cashiers/Highlands area.  Moisture cant ever make it over those mountains..

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 The last few runs of the GFS hts at 10 mb have suggested the winds getting well down into the second most negative territory for March back to 1959. Although that means it is very likely overdone, it does show how strong a signal there is for yet another major SSW ~March 5th. The 12Z at 384 has a strat HIGH over the N pole (~3,175 dm), where more typically there’s a low there or nearby (the SPV). The SPV on this is very weak (~3010 dm) and is way south in the Atlantic near 53N! It doesn’t get much weaker/displaced than that. So, take the level of weakness shown with a grain.

IMG_9241.thumb.png.65b015100e30de2932b35f1b4f1b3971.png

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

From today’s Euro Weeklies, here’s the 10 mb winds: next major SSW ~March 4-5 followed by a dip of the mean way down to -10 m/s during ~3/8-10, lowest this season for any of the progged SSWs beating yesterday’s -8. Many members dip to sub -15. Then the mean stays weak the rest of March. Will the NAO/AO respond by also dipping?

IMG_9243.png.b2601abfbf688fb7b3a658e20d46bd5b.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

From today’s Euro Weeklies, here’s the 10 mb winds: next major SSW ~March 4-5 followed by a dip of the mean way down to -10 m/s during ~3/8-10, lowest this season for any of the progged SSWs beating yesterday’s -8. Many members dip to sub -15. Then the mean stays weak the rest of March. Will the NAO/AO respond by also dipping?

IMG_9243.png.b2601abfbf688fb7b3a658e20d46bd5b.png

Book it because freaking spring is right around the corner....

  • Haha 4
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Blocking is good for something in the Spring... lots of overcast days with temps struggling to get into the 40's and a large upper low that won't move for two or three weeks. And then a hard freeze on the last night because the sky finally clears about 6 PM...  Just in time for radiational cooling to set in.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, CaryWx said:

Why should we believe these weeklies now for March?  Color me skeptical at this point

 

 As bad as all of the models have been, we shouldn’t trust ANY tropospheric model output for over a few days into the future. The strat progs are less unreliable because the strat is normally a bit easier for the models to forecast than the troposphere. But even so, the actual effect of the strat on the troposphere would still be more uncertain. Even if this next SSW along with followup weak SPV were to verify, who’s to say that that would lead to a new round of -NAO and/or -AO? After the major bust of the -AO and -NAO for the current period, I wouldn’t trust them, regardless. And then even if that were to occur, who’s to say that that would definitely lead to a colder E US?

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 This EPO dipped only down to -218 vs the models showing -300:

2024 02 12  -47.15
2024 02 13 -167.32
2024 02 14 -186.38
2024 02 15 -187.46
2024 02 16 -216.35
2024 02 17 -218.04
2024 02 18 -150.94
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

I have zero doubt in my mind that this will finally be the moment cold air moves from the long range to the medium and short range. Expect that pattern to persist through June. It does every single year.

The blocking comes just as the lineman looks back at the sacked and defeated dreams of a snowy NC winter QB lying on the ground as the clock strikes triple zeroes.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, BooneWX said:

I have zero doubt in my mind that this will finally be the moment cold air moves from the long range to the medium and short range. Expect that pattern to persist through June. It does every single year.

It does make for a comfortable May though

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The fact hours 210-318 on the 06z GFS are all rain illustrates why some doubt it will ever snow again. 1040 high moving into Maine with a trailing wave, blocking, and coastal development with precip back to mountains. Not even a pixel of digital blue. It requires more stars to align for snow here now than for the panthers to win a Super Bowl 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Some signs of a few non-accumulating pity flakes Saturday evening from the ULL. The really shocking thing is we haven't even had more than 30 minutes of frozen precip of any kind during the snow drought. I'm sure the same can't be said of the 90s drought.

We didn’t have any snow December 92 and January February and March 93 until the blizzard happed. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

We didn’t have any snow December 92 and January February and March 93 until the blizzard happed. 

Looking at Greensboro obs on weatherspark there was two freezing rain events in December, one freezing  rain even in January one light snow ob in January, and a light snow ob and mixed bag event in February. Obviously none of the snow or sleet actually accumulated. But two instances of mood flakes that year 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Looking at Greensboro obs on weatherspark there was two freezing rain events in December, one freezing  rain even in January one light snow ob in January, and a light snow ob and mixed bag event in February. Obviously none of the snow or sleet actually accumulated. But two instances of mood flakes that year 

https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/results/?county=all&start_month=1&start_day=1&start_year=2018&end_month=12&end_day=31&end_year=2018&event[]=snow&pg=2

This one doesn’t show it. 
Above is what I was basing my comment on 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...