ShawnEastTN Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Noticed radar returns were enhancing in area's. Graupel can definitely make it through that dry Column more than flakes. Maybe we'll get a surprise dusting tonight. Yeah was sitting outside taking the dog out and started hearing the sound graupel pellets make hitting the leaves of the woods beside my house. Caught a couple pellets on my sleeve to verify. It's 39 so very warm but kind of didn't think it would overcome the dry air.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Long range ext ensembles appear to be stuck in phase 3 of the MJO. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Phase 3 is a good phase in January-March for the Eastern US if I’m not mistaken, right? Seems like it’s not great for December but it gets better for Jan-March? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 There is alot of cold fixing to enter the US in the next 7-10 days. Hopefully we don't miss our opportunity because if the mjo gets to the warm phases, that will delay things for a few weeks additionally and I don't want that personally bc I'm ready for a few winter weather opportunities. Winter is limited as it is in the south and if we keep kicking the can down the road, we will eventually lose road for the cans to be kicked on lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 It looks to me like there is convection(satellite) in the parts of the Indian Ocean which will lead to a decent amplitude of 4-5-6, and maybe even stalls in 6 for a short period of time. I just don't see anyway around it unless the BOMM is correct. It also looks like the NAO is going to fire and hold. So, it looks like a battle. We have seen this during past Nina winters. NAO hooks into an eastern ridge(I actually don't call it a SER as that hasn't been present this winter so far). I think that happens from Dec 11-14. Then, even though we are in very warm phases of the MJO, it looks like there is potential for very cold air to enter the pattern for our region. Maybe picture the last few winters where cold went into eastern Montana and stretched to the Cumberland Plateau....except this time it gets to western North Carolina IF the NAO can hold on for 15-25 days...then we should benefit from the MJO hitting cold phases at likely lower amplitude (should be higher given the ENSO state, but looks unlikely). There is an outside/somewhat realistic shot we could stay cold from Jan 15-end of Feb. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Long range discussion....Jan14+ One other thing to note is a trough is trying to set-up just east of Hawaii, and that often correlates to winter weather here. It is a wonky look over North America at 500, but not unprecedented. I mentioned the mid-court bank shot(HL blocking muting or trumping a bad Pacific), and almost all global ensembles show that setup....this morning. I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see the MJO win out, but the NAO(we seem to be in a negative cycle now) can be a major driver of winter weather here. Instead of getting the -NAO during late Feb....looks like it will fire during the middle of winter. That "should" put BN heights over the East. Cold will drop into the West first as the Pacific crapfest will almost assuredly force that. But it should bleed eastward and hold. These will likely be modified Arctic/Polar air masses, but timed perfectly with our best climatology for snow. That is about all that we can ask for at this range. NAO vs MJO cage match on deck w/ some SER(holding the folding chair...think pro wrestling) sprinkled in.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I will add that the pattern has almost certainly changed. We aren't seeing excessively warm temps. It is cloudy most days. Temps are marginal. We are getting precip. Welcome to El Nino. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 I was actually going to say this weekend storm is a case where having that NAO would help us. But I suspect a big west based block could have consolidated it more to our south. I would like to see the -NAO line up with a stout passage through MJO 8/1/2 at some point in my weather tracking life, lol. Hopefully we get that in Feb. RGEM was dumping some decent snow in from North of Nashville to C KY this AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Day 8-14 analogs: 19590102 19680106 19960129 19620117 19850131 20040102 19811230 19681228 19710107 19940107 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Keep an eye on these analogs: 63-64, 58-59, 39-40. Why? Those are the three of the top 5 driest Sept/Octobers on record, and all of them are......El Ninos. I have a post about this in the winter spec thread on page 3 as this past Sept/Oct '23 is on the list(2) of dry Sept/Oct.. They turned cold the second half of winter. We have already seen 63-64 show up in a recent analog package, and now '59 shows up above. Honestly, that is pretty remarkable that there may be some loose connection with very dry Sept/Octobers(Nino years) and the following winter. Even more amazing, I often associate La Nina to dry Fall seasons, but four of the top five on that Sept/Oct list are Nino ENSO states. As for the underlined analogs....I think you all get that. Those winters turned very cold. They might be the three best winter analogs of the past 30 years, and all were on the d8-14 analog CPC list yesterday. Who knows? But interesting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 And modeling could easily, easily be in error. If I lived in middle and west TN right now, I would be licking my chops. The air mass that is showing up d10-20 is formidable, and for now, that includes E TN / W NC as well. The 0z Euro control was frigid. All 3 global ensemble means are very cold. And to boot, we have potential severe wx next week. And severe wx during winter is often followed by very cold air right after. Let's see if operational modeling starts to connect to ensembles. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Nam sure wants to put a moderate to crippling ice storm tomorrow night for high elevation areas. In particular, nams showing half inch + for waldens ridge. I know the nam is the nam but I know ice has been a possibility (albeit more north and east). Realistic? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Only other model that kinda supports it seems to be euro, no major short term model support. Oh nam, you get me every time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, Knoxtron said: Only other model that kinda supports it seems to be euro, no major short term model support. Oh nam, you get me every time Used to when you got the Euro and Nam in agreement it was a seal the deal thing. Not so much anymore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Used to when you got the Euro and Nam in agreement it was a seal the deal thing. Not so much anymore. Now you can't even get the euro to agree with the euro. lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: Now you can't even get the euro to agree with the euro. lol Dr Schmaybe. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 On another note 12z CMC was an interesting run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: On another note 12z CMC was an interesting run. That system around the 12-14th will have to be watched, IMO. The system that runs in front of it may set the table for that one. Just need our new fangled SE trend to help us out for once. There also seems to be a decent high over the top for that period........... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 A positive is that the PV has been taking a beating and hasn’t been able to consolidate. I can live without a true split because they’re like a box of chocolates. Keeping the PV weak and/or elongated will keep things interesting. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, BNAwx said: A positive is that the PV has been taking a beating and hasn’t been able to consolidate. I can live without a true split because they’re like a box of chocolates. Keeping the PV weak and/or elongated will keep things interesting. I definitely agree with this. I don't like a PV that splits. Such a low chance it even helps eastern North America! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Wild looking pattern on operationals. I am always concerned about the rug getting pulled out from under us, but....LR ext models have keyed on this time frame for a long time. It is significant to see the CANSIPs slightly below normal, because it almost never is. I think we have some cold weather on the way......I could be wrong, but the 12z GFS is again singing the same song as its previous runs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Wild looking pattern on operationals. I am always concerned about the rug getting pulled out from under us, but....LR ext models have keyed on this time frame for a long time. It is significant to see the CANSIPs slightly below normal, because it almost never is. I think we have some cold weather on the way......I could be wrong, but the 12z GFS is again singing the same song as its previous runs. I take comfort in seeing every storm too north with rain and too south suppressed. I take comfort because I know it's all wrong beyond day 7. Plenty of time to morph into something favorable. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I should clarify, the GFS operational is singing the same song as its previous ensembles. When they are out of sync, forecast trouble is brewing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Day 8-14 analogs: 19590102 19680106 19960129 19620117 19850131 20040102 19811230 19681228 19710107 19940107 Many good Analogues there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 We will see if it gets here but the Euro has old fashioned 1960s-1980s cold in the long range. -40s and even some -50 in Montana and Wyoming. Those types of air masses used to come down the front range and roll east. We will see if that can happen here. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 51 minutes ago, John1122 said: We will see if it gets here but the Euro has old fashioned 1960s-1980s cold in the long range. -40s and even some -50 in Montana and Wyoming. Those types of air masses used to come down the front range and roll east. We will see if that can happen here. You aren't kidding - there's a pixel of -59F in SW Montana, near Yellowstone. Nice temp gradient too... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: You aren't kidding - there's a pixel of -59F in SW Montana, near Yellowstone. Nice temp gradient too... You can see the print of a bad PAC there. Also, what looks like warm ph MJO trying to kick in. I never like it when the Arctic Airmass would dive that far west into S. Cal. Usually spells at least a semblance of a SER even with blocking. Also spells cutter's. We need that to drop down the Rockies and Plains. Front Range as John noted, ideally. Hopefully, this does drop down further East. In the setup of a deep western arctic plunge along with a - NAO the SER usually pokes up toward the Valley, unfortunately. You can get Cad due to the blocking so, east of Apps and MA can still fair well.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 That cold comes eastward on all ensembles and ext weeklies. It gets kicked. Honestly, maybe the best looking suite of modeling I have seen in over four years. Basically, the cold(posted above in the thumbnail) comes eastward, there is a brief lull after that, and then the pattern reloads again. Buckle up. Could be a wild, wild ride. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: That cold comes eastward on all ensembles and ext weeklies. It gets kicked. Honestly, maybe the best looking suite of modeling I have seen in over four years. Basically, the cold(posted above in the thumbnail) comes eastward, there is a brief lull after that, and then the pattern reloads again. Buckle up. Could be a wild, wild ride. Larry C had a nice update today talking about the cold rolling East of the Rockies into our Region beyond mid month. I agree that our Winter is back loaded and we certainly could be in for a wild ride well into February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 hours ago, beavis1729 said: You aren't kidding - there's a pixel of -59F in SW Montana, near Yellowstone. Nice temp gradient too... My niece just moved to Billings MO! She’s a traveling Dr. occupational therapist 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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