Itstrainingtime Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Clouds stalled our increase. 62 now which to me is better than getting in the 70's. 70 in the house as is, AC is running on all cylinders here. 67 was the high. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: AC is running on all cylinders here. 67 was the high. No ac here. Still covered. Clouds saved the $$$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Is that surface low going to bomb over us this weekend? Big wind potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 42 minutes ago, canderson said: Is that surface low going to bomb over us this weekend? Big wind potential. Mag's Snowstorm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 If we had to take a shot every time @canderson addresses wind concerns, there wouldn't be a one of us left. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 18z GFS is picking up on the mid month pattern change potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 18z GFS run ends with another storm in the middle of the country that could take aim at us a few days later if the run extended. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Goodbye Sun till Friday Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Results are in for my Feb forecast. Quote Michael, Congratulations on ranking 9 out of 83 participants in WeatherBELL's February Forecast Competition! You've shown impressive skill in long-range weather forecasting, beating 4 out of 7 models and all 6 members of the WeatherBELL team! Your total error score over all 12 cities was 54.5°F, with an average error of 4.54°F and an average bias of -4.54°F. You forecasted the correct sign for 7 out of 12 locations, and your best location was "Seattle Tacoma International Airport" with a forecast bias of +1.3°F. Thanks for participating, and good luck in the April Forecast Competition! Enter your forecasts between Friday, March 15 at 12:00AM ET and Thursday, March 21 at 11:59PM ET at the following link to qualify. https://competition.weatherbell.com/forecast-entry The WeatherBELL Analytics Team Despite the placing I was still biased way too cold, but part of that is a testament to just how warm the month was. I went +5 at Minneapolis for example and the month finished +12.7ºF.. which is insane. Happy I opted for doing + departures in the NE/north-central/Ohio Valley stations at least. Final numbers had to be submitted by like Jan 21st, so that was in the middle of the biblical February incoming disco. That was when the MJO was showing signs of being slow with progressing to and beyond 8 and we know how that ended up with the pulse refusing the cold phases. With that I had expected the good pattern to come but delayed, and we just never got it. Expected the southern US to be colder than average with an active southern stream and even there ended up solidly above average. Which 3 models did better? GEFS extended (2nd), Euro Seasonal (5th) CANSIPS (6th). GEFS extended only had a total error of 25.8ºF (avg error of 2.15ºF). Euro weeklies (44th) had a 69.6ºF total error (avg error of 5.8ºF). 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 29 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Results are in for my Feb forecast. Despite the placing I was still biased way too cold, but part of that is a testament to just how warm the month was. I went +5 at Minneapolis for example and the month finished +12.7ºF.. which is insane. Happy I opted for doing + departures in the NE/north-central/Ohio Valley stations at least. Final numbers had to be submitted by like Jan 21st, so that was in the middle of the biblical February incoming disco. That was when the MJO was showing signs of being slow with progressing to and beyond 8 and we know how that ended up with the pulse refusing the cold phases. With that I had expected the good pattern to come but delayed, and we just never got it. Expected the southern US to be colder than average with an active southern stream and even there ended up solidly above average. Which 3 models did better? GEFS extended (2nd), Euro Seasonal (5th) CANSIPS (6th). GEFS extended only had a total error of 25.8ºF (avg error of 2.15ºF). Euro weeklies (44th) had a 69.6ºF total error (avg error of 5.8ºF). It’s almost like you’re a trained pro and know what you’re taking about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 winter is over sadly at least it was better then last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Mod rain and a chilly feeling 41 with the wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Cloudy and 49°F at 6:20 AM.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 High of 68 degrees yesterday. Record for yesterday was 70 degrees, set in 1945 Low 49 degrees this morning. Put my big snowblower away yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 after the beauty we had yesterday, i'm ready to put winter to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 hour ago, sauss06 said: after the beauty we had yesterday, i'm ready to put winter to bed. Lucky for you, so is Mother Nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Only .14" of rain here thus far. The March 6th max min record of 45 looks likely to fall. Peter Sinks is having none of it, with a national low of -22. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 PennDot just gave the road a bath. Now I hope we get a foot of snow to make them look like silly geese.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 after the beauty we had yesterday, i'm ready to put winter to bed. That is the correct answer. It is time to get the pool warmed up in time for consolations. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Only .14" of rain here thus far. The March 6th max min record of 45 looks likely to fall. Peter Sinks is having none of it, with a national low of -22. Yeah, so thank you for pointing out your rainfall total - last night's forecast was for .50 - 1.00" of rain. Now the forecast has been adjusted to about .25". That's a pretty huge bust from right as the event was beginning to now. Sometimes when it's a rain event people don't notice those things as much as when it's snow - but what we're going through today is akin to a forecast last night of 5-10" of snow and ending up with 2", 3" of snow at most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yeah, so thank you for pointing out your rainfall total - last night's forecast was for .50 - 1.00" of rain. Now the forecast has been adjusted to about .25". That's a pretty huge bust from right as the event was beginning to now. Sometimes when it's a rain event people don't notice those things as much as when it's snow - but what we're going through today is akin to a forecast last night of 5-10" of snow and ending up with 2", 3" of snow at most. Seemed to me that the shield came much farther West than some Meso's predicted. I was not expecting the near .4" here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Seemed to me that the shield came much farther West than some Meso's predicted. I was not expecting the near .4" here. Correct - you have more than double what I do and I thought I was to double what you got. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Correct - you have more than double what I do and I thought I was to double what you got. Must mean that spring and summer are not really here yet and colder to come. Drought kicks in over here when the real heat gets here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Must mean that spring and summer are not really here yet and colder to come. Drought kicks in over here when the real heat gets here. I was driving home yesterday afternoon and was doing an inventory of all of the days recently that we were in the 60s, the grass is greening, the flowers are blooming in our beds like crazy, we had thunderstorms last week, and the river trail that you visited was PACKED yesterday! I'm not sure I've seen such a big non-holiday Monday "crowd" since the trail opened. It looks like spring, feels like spring, signs of spring are everywhere around (at least here) and if it does get colder...it's going to be a shock to a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I was driving home yesterday afternoon and was doing an inventory of all of the days recently that we were in the 60s, the grass is greening, the flowers are blooming in our beds like crazy, we had thunderstorms last week, and the river trail that you visited was PACKED yesterday! I'm not sure I've seen such a big non-holiday Monday "crowd" since the trail opened. It looks like spring, feels like spring, signs of spring are everywhere around (at least here) and if it does get colder...it's going to be a shock to a lot of people. Yep. In defense of the weather and timing, it was like this the last two years even earlier. Last year 11 of the last 15 days of Feb were 55 or over with a 63, 69, 71 and 67 mixed in. In 2022 five of the last 15 days of Feb were 62 or over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 MDT has not had a "cold" Feb since 2015 and that was really cold with an astounding -12.5 departure featuring the highest temp that month only reaching 42. Of the 9 Feb's since then, 8 have been above normal and one was a soft .6 BN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 48 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: That is the correct answer. It is time to get the pool warmed up in time for consolations. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Last year i did watch college baseball while floating in the pool and drinking beverages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Last year i did watch college baseball while floating in the pool and drinking beverages. College baseball bores me for some reason. I think it's the broadcasting, but I also think it's the metal bats. These kids are months away from the metal bats going bye bye, and really, the NCAA should make them go bye bye so there isn't that adjustment to wood. That and I have yet to see or hear about some collegiate goliath hitting a 700 foot homer. That would change my opinion pretty goddamned fast. And then I would petition for a brick wall between home and the mound to protect pitchers and introduce the metal bats to MLB so there is a race between Fernando Tatis, Jr., Vlad Guerrero, Jr., Ronald Acuña, Pete Alonso, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton to the the first with a 1,000 ft blast. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 11 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: College baseball bores me for some reason. I think it's the broadcasting, but I also think it's the metal bats. These kids are months away from the metal bats going bye bye, and really, the NCAA should make them go bye bye so there isn't that adjustment to wood. That and I have yet to see or hear about some collegiate goliath hitting a 700 foot homer. That would change my opinion pretty goddamned fast. And then I would petition for a brick wall between home and the mound to protect pitchers and introduce the metal bats to MLB so there is a race between Fernando Tatis, Jr., Vlad Guerrero, Jr., Ronald Acuña, Pete Alonso, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton to the the first with a 1,000 ft blast. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Acuna's injury was minor and he'll be ready for opening day - great news for the tomahawk choppers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Acuna's injury was minor and he'll be ready for opening day - great news for the tomahawk choppers. Plot twist is the surgeon who gave him the second opinion is a Dodgers fan and decided to send him out there with a ticking time bomb. Pros: Dodgers don't need any help but preventing a 60/80 season to one of the few threats doesn't hurt anybody.Cons: Your surgery failed. Maybe the dude who was silly enough to sign a $100M contract when he was worth at least twice that will be silly enough to go back for a second surgery. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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