Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Rgem and Icon. Icon 10-1 was slightly higher in the LSV but Kuch higher west so did Kuch for both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 GFS is a MA dream (given the options.) Wagons Neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I was focused on the LSV. 10-1 is higher in the LSV (on Pivotal). I see out your way Kuch is higher. 10-1 has Harrisburg at 3 and Kuch is 2.7. Hmm that’s interesting, Weatherbell is 3.3” Kuch and 2.8” 10:1 at Harrisburg. Splitting hairs at this point in time really but given colder surface temps and a much colder column ratios should be better than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, MAG5035 said: Hmm that’s interesting, Weatherbell is 3.3” Kuch and 2.8” 10:1 at Harrisburg. Splitting hairs at this point in time really but given colder surface temps and a much colder column ratios should be better than 10:1. Yea, as I mentioned before/above WB had the Euro showing snow over Central PA at 7AM Sat Am while Pivotal has it exiting far SE PA at that time. The snow maps do not matter anyway but I do like consistency of output. Here are both Pivotal Nam's outputs. I am calling Harrisburg the accum mark beside Cumberland County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Roofus is way North...something to watch. Like GFS was a MA wet dream, this is MA wet without the dream and a bit close for me even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, as I mentioned before/above WB had the Euro showing snow over Central PA at 7AM Sat Am while Pivotal has it exiting far SE PA at that time. The snow maps do not matter anyway but I do like consistency of output. Here are both Pivotal Nam's outputs. I am calling Harrisburg the accum mark beside Cumberland County. You’ve done it now, I’m using math haha. Trying to see how Pivotal calculates it’s Kuchera vs WB. So, basically it applies an equation that uses the max temp in the lowest 500mb. In this instance the warmest temp is the surface temp.. which according to the NAM holds at 31ºF for the event. Applying that equation using the surface temp (31ºF = 272.594K) yields a 9.13 to 1 ratio via Kuchera. Right around its output and also <10:1. WeatherBell’s output is greater than 10:1 so something different is being calculated, whether they don’t use temps right at the surface or maybe they’re applying the bottom equation for all temps, which technically would be wrong. To simplify, the bottom equation is used for the max temp being less than or equal to -2ºC. Plugging that same temp for MDT (about -0.5ºC) into would give about a 10.5 to 1 ratio. Interesting, maybe the codes cracked on that. That would definitely make a difference in map output with marginal temps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: You’ve done it now, I’m using math haha. Trying to see how Pivotal calculates it’s Kuchera vs WB. So, basically it applies an equation that uses the max temp in the lowest 500mb. In this instance the warmest temp is the surface temp.. which according to the NAM holds at 31ºF for the event. Applying that equation using the surface temp (31ºF = 272.594K) yields a 9.13 to 1 ratio via Kuchera. Right around its output and also <10:1. WeatherBell’s output is greater than 10:1 so something different is being calculated, whether they don’t use temps right at the surface or maybe they’re applying the bottom equation for all temps, which technically would be wrong. To simplify, the bottom equation is used for the max temp being less than or equal to -2ºC. Plugging that same temp for MDT (about -0.5ºC) into would give about a 10.5 to 1 ratio. Interesting, maybe the codes cracked on that. That would definitely make a difference in map output with marginal temps. That sound we all hear is one of our regular posters, from Mt. Joy, breaking out T-Squares and calculators to help figure out this issue! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 You’ve done it now, I’m using math haha. Trying to see how Pivotal calculates it’s Kuchera vs WB. So, basically it applies an equation that uses the max temp in the lowest 500mb. In this instance the warmest temp is the surface temp.. which according to the NAM holds at 31ºF for the event. Applying that equation using the surface temp (31ºF = 272.594K) yields a 9.13 to 1 ratio via Kuchera. Right around its output and also This post is why I'm not a red tagger. I am atrocious at maths.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That sound we all hear is one of our regular posters, from Mt. Joy, breaking out T-Squares and calculators to help figure out this issue! You have no idea how excited I was reading that. Dead serious. I have big problems 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Friday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 28. West wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Friday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 28. West wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. CTP with the early call. I think this event is pretty straightforward. 1 to 3 with a few lucky places getting 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 CTP with the early call. I think this event is pretty straightforward. 1 to 3 with a few lucky places getting 4.How close is KMDT to normalSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 MU: Coating to 3" Friday night. (Though there might be a narrow swath of 3-5" that favors MD at this time) Chance of something wintry between February 22nd and the 25th. Warm weather arrives with the beginning of March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: How close is KMDT to normal Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Only 1.8 below normal through yesterday. if Friday night delivers close to 3, MDT will be near normal to date. Unfortunately, not many cities in the eastern half of the country can say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 MU: Coating to 3" Friday night. (Though there might be a narrow swath of 3-5" that favors MD at this time) Chance of something wintry between February 22nd and the 25th. Warm weather arrives with the beginning of March.If warm weather arrives starting March I am fearful of a complete reversal by April. Cold, wet, with many frostswoild at least slow the grass Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Have been out the entire day with a terrible work day so haven’t had a chance to read much (plus I saw math up thread and I was told there would be no math). I thought this would be a Saturday morning to midday event. Is it moved up to Friday evening now? That’ll suck as we have a plane to catch that evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Here is the 18z GEFS Snow map is 10-1 The 2.7 at Harrisburg would like be a little over 3 with ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Here is 18z Euro kuchera map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, AccuChris said: Here is 18z Euro kuchera map I would sign up for this 18z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 56 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: If warm weather arrives starting March I am fearful of a complete reversal by April. Cold, wet, with many frostswoild at least slow the grass Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk There are indications of a trough setting up in the east at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 There are indications of a trough setting up in the east at the end of the month.Goodbye true spring Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 If warm weather arrives starting March I am fearful of a complete reversal by April. Cold, wet, with many frostswoild at least slow the grass Sent from my SM-G970U using TapatalkApril and May is winter anymore. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 April and May is winter anymore. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using TapatalkPack the parka and bodysuit for the baseball gameSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Pack the parka and bodysuit for the baseball gameSent from my SM-G970U using TapatalkNo dice. Back in 2017 I went to a Phillies-Braves game on a Saturday in April. It rained the entire goddamned time. I sat on the third baseline in a soaking rain wearing just a shirt and shorts.In 2019 on Mother's Day I went to see the Angels in Birdland and sat in a three hour rain delay. Since then I have written off April and May as possible dates to take in ball games outside of an impromptu trip to PNG Field or Shitty Island. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: No dice. Back in 2017 I went to a Phillies-Braves game on a Saturday in April. It rained the entire goddamned time. I sat on the third baseline in a soaking rain wearing just a shirt and shorts. In 2019 on Mother's Day I went to see the Angels in Birdland and sat in a three hour rain delay. Since then I have written off April and May as possible dates to take in ball games outside of an impromptu trip to PNG Field or Shitty Island. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk I've got Phillies - Braves Opening Day tickets for March 28th. Between the O's and Phils I have tickets to 15 games so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I've got Phillies - Braves Opening Day tickets for March 28th. Between the O's and Phils I have tickets to 15 games so far You must not believe the euro weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 You must not believe the euro weeklies.Why would anyone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You must not believe the euro weeklies. Correct - I ignore the Euro every week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I've got Phillies - Braves Opening Day tickets for March 28th. Between the O's and Phils I have tickets to 15 games so far.It'll probably be 75 and sunny Opening Day and then raining or misting and 45 the next month. August in Pittsburgh is about perfect. It's never failed me weather-wise. Beats the hell out of DC in July, where I baked at Nationals Park in 2018. If I had 15 tickets like you, I'd have 13 rainouts lolSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 31 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I would sign up for this 18z Euro. You and me both! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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