Bubbler86 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good points…. However, those that “punt” say it definitively… Why the heck is it wrong to be positive & confident definitively? I agree, only time will tell how it plays out in the next 2 months. I was not saying punting was right or not or who was saying it a certain way, just that anyone that says things with little room for options sets up failure if using 300 hour models to make the definitive statement. I mostly stay out of the LR game as I do not enjoy that part of it. When I post LR maps it is more about fun than real forecasting. I was actually saying your opinion is as valid as anyone else's and that includes the holy grail of LR forecasting in the MA. Lots of people there who are great at discussing patterns but IMO the end results on the ground are not often progged well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I wasn’t necessarily referring to you, but this is not the time to get nervous in my opinion based on most guidance for February. I also disagree that this Winter has been bad so far. December was bad with minimal snow for most outside of a car topper or 2 in early December. January produced 3 plowable snowstorms for many of us in here. MDT is going to finish just above normal snow for January even if nothing more is measured in the last few days of the month. February & March will tell the final story of the Winter, but we still have the chance to make this a really good snow year. A 3 or 4 week snowy period could get it done. I have a similar total to MDT, but January has had 1 great week and 1 snow to rain event with varying results. I rate a winter by winter weeks vs months. So with 9 weeks of met winter (Dec & Jan), I see 8 or 9 days as great, making it a lousy winter in my book. I won't talk temps for fear of triggering certain posters. Lol But I appreciate your positive attitude. I keep one as well until I reach a point when I think it's unreasonable to think positively. As I said, my gut says to toss it but medium range modeling says otherwise, so I'm not folding yet. But I am at the point of show me something concrete because I'm tired of idle threats. That means, assuming 2/5 doesn't work, we better be tracking at least 1 legit threat come 2/10 or I'll be calling bs on these great patterns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Why am I looking forward to the NAM to track this mid week clipper for a chance at a dusting to an inch? Sick hobby… lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Why am I looking forward to the NAM to track this mid week clipper for a chance at a dusting to an inch? Sick hobby… lol! The probably failed Bubbler snow...licking my wounds on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Why am I looking forward to the NAM to track this mid week clipper for a chance at a dusting to an inch? Sick hobby… lol!Because clippers have a rep for last second surprisesSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: The probably failed Bubbler snow...licking my wounds on that one. It's ok, little boy. Take your trophy anyway. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, mitchnick said: It's ok, little boy. Take your trophy anyway. Lol At least you could have done 5 min worth of Photoshop to type bubbler on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 <Lionchoking.gif> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: At least you could have done 5 min worth of Photoshop to type bubbler on it. Never done that before. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: <Lionchoking.gif> A tale as old as time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 360hrs Eps, which puts us at 2/12 7pm. Little, if any, progress to my eyes. Surface map suggests a front is in the middle of the country with slp in or approaching the Lakes with AN surface and 850 temps the easter half of the US. Assuming these maps are correct, how many days before temps drop and we get a system? And we will need temps decently BN since we'll be around 3 weeks past lowest averages. These are not weenie whinings, but legit questions based on what the Eps is showing that I believe contradicts the picture painted by the Eps Extended the week starting 2/12 that came out yesterday. Again, assuming it is correct, after the 12th you'd need another several days at least for cold to become established along with a favorable storm track development putting you around the 17th-19th, assuming again you get a storm to develop and track. At the 19th, you are 10 days from March. My point? 2 weeks from today wasted ("yes", I've written off 2/5 as a snowstorm) and likely another week after that IF we're lucky and get a storm that develops and falls as snow. What's the definition of insanity again? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 6z GEFS kicks the trough out of the SW & 0z Canadian ensemble has the trough fully in the east by day 16. Both have decent ridging on the west coast up into Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 35 degrees this morning and windy. We set a record yesterday for precipitation. 1.16” 0.08” for snow which was basically a paste. Nothing laid on the roads. Still have some white in the grass and unheated shed roofs are still covered with snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 6z GEFS kicks the trough out of the SW & 0z Canadian ensemble has the trough fully in the east by day 16. Both have decent ridging on the west coast up into Alaska. Same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I think one's view of whether a winter season is good, bad or otherwise is highly subjective. Each of us has (and should) have our own interpretation based on an infinite number of criteria that we all filter through our personal lenses. Thing is...everyone is right and no one is wrong. It really comes down to how we feel individually. If I was doing my own assessment of winter to date, I'm in the C- area. I contemplated D+ but want to be positive. We had an 8 day or so stretch of fantastic winter...2 bona fide snow events surrounded by plenty of cold. A wintry landscape that lasted a full week. Outside of that...it's been a dud. Thing is - the first half of winter was always forecast to be a dud. Doesn't change facts, but knowing that going in influences my opinion somewhat as well. What hurts is that not only are we now entering our prime time for snowfall, we are also into the period that was forecast to be cold and white. Cold and white is likely at least a couple of weeks away...and there's no guarantee that it's coming at all. I'm right around 10" of snow for the season - if we end this season with less than 20", I'm going to have a hard time giving this a passing grade. This is a winter where we're "supposed" to cash in. A BN snowfall this season with what might be coming next year is just not good to me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Low of 36 here with .11" of additional rainfall, bringing my 5-day total to 1.45". I got 6.47" in December and have 6.41" so far in January. Thankfully, things look to dry out for a bit in the coming week(s). For you snow hounds, here is a picture of my buddy's cabin this morning...... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I think one's view of whether a winter season is good, bad or otherwise is highly subjective. Each of us has (and should) have our own interpretation based on an infinite number of criteria that we all filter through our personal lenses. Thing is...everyone is right and no one is wrong. It really comes down to how we feel individually. If I was doing my own assessment of winter to date, I'm in the C- area. I contemplated D+ but want to be positive. We had an 8 day or so stretch of fantastic winter...2 bona fide snow events surrounded by plenty of cold. A wintry landscape that lasted a full week. Outside of that...it's been a dud. Thing is - the first half of winter was always forecast to be a dud. Doesn't change facts, but knowing that going in influences my opinion somewhat as well. What hurts is that not only are we now entering our prime time for snowfall, we are also into the period that was forecast to be cold and white. Cold and white is likely at least a couple of weeks away...and there's no guarantee that it's coming at all. I'm right around 10" of snow for the season - if we end this season with less than 20", I'm going to have a hard time giving this a passing grade. This is a winter where we're "supposed" to cash in. A BN snowfall this season with what might be coming next year is just not good to me. I think grades should refrain from bring out till March 15th. Especially with the dismal performance of everything long range this wibterSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, Jns2183 said: I think grades should refrain from bring out till March 15th. Especially with the dismal performance of everything long range this wibter Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk My grade was not for winter in totality - I was grading winter as of 1/29/2024. I said "winter to date". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I think grades should refrain from bring out till March 15th. Especially with the dismal performance of everything long range this wibter Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I am still shoveling the digital snow that the ops and ensembles have dropped on Rou. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Same time. Oof. If that’s where we are as of 2/14, and even if it quickly reverses after that, there are 4, maybe 5 at most, weeks left where snow would be viable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I am still shoveling the digital snow that the ops and ensembles have dropped on Rou. How's the water table doing out your way? The last two months had to be incredibly beneficial to your yard and the farmers. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Since we are looking into grades and what not, 3 days to go until we are 2/3 of the way through met winter and with Jan bordering on being 4AN we stand at an average of 4.6 AN for both months of winter so far. Pretty ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, TimB said: Oof. If that’s where we are as of 2/14, and even if it quickly reverses after that, there are 4, maybe 5 at most, weeks left where snow would be viable. Happy Valentines Day! 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: How's the water table doing out your way? The last two months had to be incredibly beneficial to your yard and the farmers. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk The drought is over for the short term. If we have our typical overly dry 4-5 month period later this year I suspect, we go back in to D1 but all clear for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I believe our nemesis this year has been the consistent -PDO. Just about every other strong Niño, if not all, had averaged a +PDO. In fact, those that were negative at the start of winter, switched to positive. It explains the reluctance of the trough to leave the SW and the consistent -PNA. I know the extended ensembles show a +PNA, but with the reluctance of the trough to migrate east, it hard for me to believe the PNA goes + as long as the -PDO is maintained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, mitchnick said: I believe our nemesis this year has been the consistent -PDO. Just about every other strong Niño, if not all, had averaged a +PDO. In fact, those that were negative at the start of winter, switched to positive. It explains the reluctance of the trough to leave the SW and the consistent -PNA. I know the extended ensembles show a +PNA, but with the reluctance of the trough to migrate east, it hard for me to believe the PNA goes + as long as the -PDO is maintained. As mentioned yesterday, I do not like to dabble into the indices forecasting too much but will say again that I think people who forecast LR have a LONG way to go before it is even close to being a science per se. Because I cannot/do not do it, I am not casting stones, but it seems that each time too much emphasis is placed on one indicator or another and we often come out with posts like yours showing where it went wrong (in this case wrong to this point.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: As mentioned yesterday, I do not like to dabble into the indices forecasting too much but will say again that I think people who forecast LR have a LONG way to go before it is even close to being a science per se. Because I cannot/do not do it, I am not casting stones, but it seems that each time too much emphasis is placed on one indicator or another and we often come out with posts like yours showing where it went wrong (in this case wrong to this point.) I don't disagree completely, but in this case, the pattern represented by a -PDO does fit our pattern in the mean this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I don't disagree completely, but in this case, the pattern represented by a -PDO does fit our pattern in the mean this winter. I guess I was more basing my comments on the more enthusiastic forecasts seen by some of the people that like to do LR. There often seems to be one factor that was not accounted for, and it turns into a learning experience. Much the same as the yearly Tropical Storm forecasts IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I was scratching some numbers this morning (light work with only three days left in the month ha) and think MDT will end January with a mean temp of 34.9, placing it in sole position for 20th all-time warmest. It should also end as the fifth wettest January on record. Also, someone was inquiring about how much snow we had during that little 5-day stretch a couple weeks ago and I just wanted to add that I got exactly 8" at my place. Sitting at 11.9" for the season. Onward and upward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Wait. Are we cancelling the remainder? Groundhog hunt is Friday. You gotta get up early. Any interested parties can meet up at Gio's rib shack in Woodland. Also, any successful hunt will be returned to said rib shack because that sauce is the only thing I imagine can make woodchuck taste good. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 38 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I think one's view of whether a winter season is good, bad or otherwise is highly subjective. Each of us has (and should) have our own interpretation based on an infinite number of criteria that we all filter through our personal lenses. Thing is...everyone is right and no one is wrong. It really comes down to how we feel individually. If I was doing my own assessment of winter to date, I'm in the C- area. I contemplated D+ but want to be positive. We had an 8 day or so stretch of fantastic winter...2 bona fide snow events surrounded by plenty of cold. A wintry landscape that lasted a full week. Outside of that...it's been a dud. Thing is - the first half of winter was always forecast to be a dud. Doesn't change facts, but knowing that going in influences my opinion somewhat as well. What hurts is that not only are we now entering our prime time for snowfall, we are also into the period that was forecast to be cold and white. Cold and white is likely at least a couple of weeks away...and there's no guarantee that it's coming at all. I'm right around 10" of snow for the season - if we end this season with less than 20", I'm going to have a hard time giving this a passing grade. This is a winter where we're "supposed" to cash in. A BN snowfall this season with what might be coming next year is just not good to me. Best post of the year thus far. One week of a true winter in three years is not going to cut it for me. A big fat D thus far for me for this winter . Even if we get another whopper March 1958 storm like event which is very plausible in this current screwed up pattern, the rest of this winter absolutely was an F. One big snowfall event does not define a true winter at least for me especially when it be already melted away the very next day. It was really nice to see frozen ponds and some creeks with snow cover and temps below freezing all week earlier this month. With no cold air coming from Canada in the foreseeable future and even if a little of it comes in, it will be very short in duration because virtually no deep snow pack exists across the country and especially in Alberta Canada area. This image below says it all folks http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map_only.php?var=ssm_depth&min_x=-125.0&min_y=24.0&max_x=-67.0&max_y=53.0&bgvar=dem&shdvar=shading&title=1&width=650&height=402&font=0&lbl=m&palette=0&h_o=0&metric=0&snap=1&o9=1&o12=0&o13=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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