canderson Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Surface temps above freezing. Very little real cold air around for some time. Yeah if I were in the LSV I'd bet good money against seeing a snowflake fall Sunday or Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Just now, canderson said: Yeah if I were in the LSV I'd bet good money against seeing a snowflake fall Sunday or Monday. I would not bet against you but the current timing sort of sucks as to seeing it anyway. Midnight and after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 18z Nam....youzers. here's 3k. Snow tital at 60 hrs and 60 hr map showing snow still falling for many. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Rgem will show snow at 18z. First run it has....hmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Rgem will show snow at 18z. First run it has....hmmmm. Better than 12z, but not as much as I was anticipating. But it's a positive trend nonetheless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 8, 2023 Author Share Posted December 8, 2023 My forecast (Tamaqua) for tonight made me laugh. The way its worded it would be best to stay out and close the bar before attempting to drive home. You have a 1 hour window to be able to see where you're going... Tonight Patchy fog before 2am, then patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a low around 33. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 29 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Rgem will show snow at 18z. First run it has....hmmmm. The Kuch maps are still way below the 10-1. Half or less. Those surface temps are an issue. Could be modeled wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The Kuch maps are still way below the 10-1. Half or less. Those surface temps are an issue. Could be modled wrong though. Incredible how Nam and Euro are best. Shame DT's old E-E rule hasn't survived over the years with all those crummy updates. For those who may not know, E-E was when the Euro and Nam, formerly the ETA, were lock step, it was guaranteed per DT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 Just now, mitchnick said: Incredible how Nam and Euro are best. Shame DT's old E-E rule hasn't survived over the years with all those crummy updates. For those wh may not know, E-E was when the Euro and Nam, formerly the ETA, were lock step, it was guaranteed per DT. Yes indeed. But like you said, since the update a couple years ago, the Euro hasn't been the same imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Incredible how Nam and Euro are best. Shame DT's old E-E rule hasn't survived over the years with all those crummy updates. For those who may not know, E-E was when the Euro and Nam, formerly the ETA, were lock step, it was guaranteed per DT. I thought of that this morning. It really is E-E vs the world right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 @mitchnick I just wish it was colder. Hard to get excited when it is 33 or 34 in the middle of the night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 58 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: @mitchnick I just wish it was colder. Hard to get excited when it is 33 or 34 in the middle of the night. You mean like the 210 hr bomb out your way on the 18z Gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 HH just for fun. Lack of true cold air limits it a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: HH just for fun. Lack of true cold air limits it a bit. Get used to it. This is going to be an inland winter thru mid to late January imho. The best part is we're far enough inland to get in on some of the goods, also mho. Wet snows are very common to strong or super (+2C) Niños as we are in now. Gotta wait until February, maybe late January if we're lucky, before we can expect a "cold" storm. Also imho. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 2 hours ago, canderson said: Yeah if I were in the LSV I'd bet good money against seeing a snowflake fall Sunday or Monday. Great, thanks, lol! We will let you know what happens when you are in London or Texas or wherever you are this weekend! Forget about your trash cans! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: @mitchnick I just wish it was colder. Hard to get excited when it is 33 or 34 in the middle of the night. Good rates can accumulate just fine overnight at 33 or 34. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2023 Share Posted December 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good rates can accumulate just fine overnight at 33 or 34. Yeah. Nam actually has me at snow starting at 37 and then drops me to 33. I did fine with similar temps back in a March 22 event...4" But like Bubbler, would prefer colder. But you know what they say about beggars...don't waste your time looking for a handout from Mitchnick? NO! Can't be choosers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Good rates can accumulate just fine overnight at 33 or 34. After you telling me that 6 winters in a row you would think I would remember! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 We all know the deal with these post frontal systems. Cold air usually takes longer to come in than modeled. West winds cut the precip off quickly east of the mountains. Set low expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 It was great for Lancaster and a few other spots to really cash in on an overperformer yesterday. I never tracked that event and got 4 hours of light snow that accumulated on grass and even some paved spots. Could already rank this year ahead of last year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: We all know the deal with these post frontal systems. Cold air usually takes longer to come in than modeled. West winds cut the precip off quickly east of the mountains. Set low expectations. This is all too true. Sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 28 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: We all know the deal with these post frontal systems. Cold air usually takes longer to come in than modeled. West winds cut the precip off quickly east of the mountains. Set low expectations. Yes, but at least it’s something to track & maybe we can luck into a sloppy couple of inches of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, but at least it’s something to track & maybe we can luck into a sloppy couple of inches. That's what she said. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Umm....Nams? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 NAM is juicing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Umm....Nams? Here are the 0z NAMs Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 This reminds me of many winters that underperform to this one that may over perform. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Gfs loading up at day 7+. I think this run is another biggy and likely better than 18z imho. But that's a hunch based on 5h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Staying a wee but too far inland. Only 32 more runs to adjust east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2023 Share Posted December 9, 2023 Gem similar to Gfs on day 8. The way I figure it, both models need to average 15 miles east with each day's runs and we're gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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